equark

7 ms·

1.
Bayesian Statistics and What Nate Silver Gets Wrong(newyorker.com)
5 points by equark 14y ago|1 comments
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by equark 14y ago
Both derby and meteor don't support relational databases. Give me a realtime graph or relational database.
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by equark 14y ago
Sense ( http://www.senseplatform.com , http://angel.co/sense ) - San Francisco Sense is a next-generation platform for data analysis, statistical modeling, and business analytics. We're building amazing technology and need help at all par
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by equark 14y ago
It's coming soon and much more: http://angel.co/sense , http://www.senseplatform.com . Three of us, full time, for over a year.
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by equark 14y ago
Both are correct but they target different things. The disagreement is around what is the target should be and the advantages and disadvantages of choosing these targets. Bayesians are interested in p(unknown|data) and frequentists are int
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by equark 14y ago
Impressively fast. Is the voice recognition being done exclusively on Google's servers or is there a local component?
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by equark 14y ago
They are creating decentralized mechanisms for free individuals to find individually and socially beneficial outcomes. The free market organized by the U.S. legal system is one such mechanism, but certainly not the only one.
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by equark 14y ago
I'd recommend using as many real examples as possible. Things like forecasting, product recommendations, topic modeling, etc. While you can conceptually explain how Bayesian statistics is a unified recipe, it's incredibly hard to have thi
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by equark 14y ago
My problem with books like this is that they have almost no connection to why Bayesian statistics is successful: Bayesian statistics provides a unified recipe to tackle complex data analysis problems. Arguably the only known unified reci
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by equark 14y ago
You could come work at Sense ( http://www.senseplatform.com ) or email me tristan@senseplatform.com. Not Google scale, but the same technological challenges without the legacy bagage.
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by equark 14y ago
I'm really not sure this is true. I'd like to see evidence of it because certainly the people I know who buy android do it for features. That's also how they evangelize. It seems to work. Apple has a great marketing strategy but that doesn
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by equark 14y ago
This would be very interesting to lots of people. There are lots of half-baked sandbox solutions so seeing what you guys did you be interesting.
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by equark 14y ago
A lot of comments suggest that Apple and maybe even Google are deliberately keeping HTML5 performance subpar. I think this misses a key fact: Google has struggled for years to make native Android apps match iOS performance, even for simple
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by equark 14y ago
Unfortunately it still feels broken on ios.
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by equark 14y ago
Unfortunately no, but you're welcome to email me at tristan@senseplatform.com.
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by equark 14y ago
Another key fact is that "big data" is actually not that common, especially when it gets to the analysis stage. The median job size at Microsoft and Yahoo is only 15GB. And 90% of Hadoop jobs at Facebook are under 100GB. Clearly you want t
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by equark 14y ago
"Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon."
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by equark 14y ago
As far as I can tell derby has zero story for datastores outside their json racer implementation. There's too much focus on realtime sync in all these frameworks. Even a realtime app like twitter needs complicated relational data. I want a
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by equark 14y ago
So far it seems like Meteor is focused on data syncing and live UI elements. That's neat when done well, but the main pain points for client-side heavy apps is the mismatch between the server and client and between the traditional URLs str
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by equark 14y ago
It's absolutely a step back and the Node community is way too harsh on those that point this out. But they are probably making the right call by not forking JavaScript. If you want a synchronous style its easy enough with node-fibers. The
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by equark 14y ago
It's too bad Windows support is not a priority. Half the point of Dropbox is to keep files synced across all computers.
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by equark 14y ago
What prevents you from doing this with ajax post on every existing website?
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by equark 14y ago
Obviously epsilon-greedy is not optimal. But I think the point is it's surprisingly effective and probably better than A/B testing in most applications. Most alternatives get very complicated very quickly. Even your thought experiment is
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by equark 14y ago
This is the most important critique of A/B testing. It far outweighs the traditional hoopla about simultaneous inference and Bonferonni corrections. Epsilon greedy does well on k-armed bandit problems, but in most applications you likely c
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by equark 14y ago
Frequentist statistics is about determining the repeated sampling properties of a procedure/statistic/estimator. It's about evaluation not estimation. "Optimizing \theta" or whatever you're envisioning is just one possible procedure you mi
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by equark 14y ago
It sounds like you're just saying that if you want to know the frequentist properties of an estimator you have to be frequentist. That's a tautology. The harder question is whether there are any decisions you'd prefer to make using a non-B
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by equark 14y ago
The sampling distribution is not the likelihood. It's the fundamental basis of all frequentist inference. Amazingly, even though this is typically taught in introductory statistics virtually no students actually digest its importance. You
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by equark 14y ago
There are times when, even as a Bayesian, one is interested in calibration. Model checking without a specified alternative is an example. Frequentist ideas -- sampling from the model and comparing it to the observed distribution -- can be
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by equark 14y ago
I don't think this is a worthwhile distinction, even if it's historically accurate. Both Bayesian and Frequentists focus on point estimation and distributions. EAP and MAP are just as Bayesian and the full posterior distribution. And the
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by equark 14y ago
While it is sometimes important to be able to manipulate large datasets, every single competition on Kaggle can fit in a laptop's memory.

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