crossbody

7 ms·

1.
by crossbody 3mo ago
Sounds more like people retire somewhat early - for 25-54yo labor force participation near all time high: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 And here is one for 55+yo: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
2.
by crossbody 3mo ago
What happens if large cohort of Boomers retires and stop working, instead living on their savings? Labor share of income drops. If you remove this effect, the labor share of income is flat - confirmed by last week's analysis in The Eco
3.
by crossbody 3mo ago
True, makes total sense for kids
4.
by crossbody 3mo ago
Sounds like a fun project. Honest question: why would one switch from a much more capable "carry everywhere" smartphone camera to this? Especially since phone is truly carry always & everywhere and that computational processin
5.
by crossbody 4mo ago
It doesn't negate the influence gain, however the Putin and Trump examples show that this influence is often (very) limited and short lived, not "tremendous"
6.
by crossbody 4mo ago
How massive relative to everything else in the economy that is not zero sum? 1%? Also, disagree on options and futures market. They do provide important economoc function of price discovery and insurance against risk
7.
by crossbody 4mo ago
Can't see that far... All seems flat to me
8.
by crossbody 4mo ago
Yes, people are getting wealthier in real terms, including the poor. Especially if you quantify it the right way: absolute consumption/expenditures, not relative % from median income (relative count will always show there are poor peop
9.
by crossbody 4mo ago
How much bending is actually happening vs just hypotheticals thought? Elon Musk donated a lot and then suddenly Big Beautiful Bill hit Tesla very hard. Doesn't sound like he got a favor paid back. Also, not that we should emulate Russi
10.
by crossbody 4mo ago
I just see political influence as separate issue. Make sure they cannot lobby/donate (prison if they do) and problem solved. Why being tangiable so important? E.g. a billionare made it on physical music CD cs one made it on music strea
11.
by crossbody 4mo ago
And I agree that _some_ redistribution is necessary for a healthy society. But the cost of slowing growth must be weighted agaist it. And populist calls for "no billionaires" etc are going to be bad for all, including the poor, in
12.
by crossbody 4mo ago
"seems" as based on vibes? Beware of nostalgia bias! It is true that middle class has been shrinking. What is often overlooked though ks that the majority of that middle class moved on to the upper class, so not bad at all and ali
13.
by crossbody 4mo ago
Exactly, and thankfully those have been made based on natural experiments like the ones I shared. And the consensus among serious modern economists (not those making money on selling popular books) is that redistribution negatively affects
14.
by crossbody 4mo ago
My bad, wrong chart (it's in real terms though) Here is net wealth increasing for all, let's celebrate: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1962-_Net_personal_w... My point is that the pie is growing and
15.
by crossbody 4mo ago
Can we? Do we even know the counterfactual? Perhaps Norway would have been 2x richer (incl. their poorest people) if they implemented ultra aggressive libertarian policies. The best we can do is learn from natural expriments like Finland an
16.
by crossbody 4mo ago
Well, if Norway managed to pull it off, we can just ignore all the countless counter examples
17.
by crossbody 4mo ago
If your logic is right, people back in the Stone Age were all like Jeff Bezos with mega yachts and stuff... It all went downhill from then - the population has increased so much and everyone has gotten so much poorer :(
18.
by crossbody 4mo ago
Is your worry based on vibes? Because statistics clearly show median real wealth growing rapidly: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
19.
by crossbody 4mo ago
Yes, that is a fair point. However, the cost of drone versus latest generation ballistic missile that has a chance to reach us naval ship is very different. And in that sense, iterating on a drone is closer to iterating on a line of code be
20.
by crossbody 4mo ago
Iterating on a rocket design is not like making a tweak to a line of code. It needs production line changes, manufacturing, testing, (repeat X times) where the process takes weeks, months or even years untill desired results can be achieved
21.
by crossbody 6mo ago
And the age was set to 42.0
22.
by crossbody 6mo ago
You quote correlation and then jump to causation. Any high quality evidence for causation that make you confident it's not depression that drives SM use (or something else entirely driving both)?
23.
by crossbody 7mo ago
The EU is rich enough but will they stay "willing enough"? Unfortunately, many EU parties that are gaining popularity are also against spending money on Ukraine
24.
by crossbody 7mo ago
I see your point, however, consider this: to a farmer in 1900, our modern food system is already "end of history" post-scarcity sci-fi. Back then, one farmer fed ~4 people. Today, thanks to automation, GMO and fertilizers, one far
25.
by crossbody 7mo ago
You're describing a standard S-curve (logistic growth), which is definitely what happens to parameter counts or user adoption (like The Internet). But Amodei is applying this to scientific discovery itself. He’s effectively saying the
26.
by crossbody 7mo ago
The concept of the "end of the exponential" sounds like a tech version of Fukuyama's much mocked "End of History". Amodei seems to think we’ll solve all the "useful" problems and then hit a ceiling of util
27.
by crossbody 7mo ago
there is art in getting other people's tax money, so yes
28.
by crossbody 7mo ago
Anyone can become an artist with no skill and minimal effort while being a carpet installer requires skill and effort. If you are a carpet installer just call it art and get the money
29.
by crossbody 10mo ago
Not true, the share of income going to living necessities has steadily dropped. Even not true for sunlight - the air quality was so much worse that you couldn't see much of the sun anyway
30.
by crossbody 10mo ago
Would you say all people have the same level of intelligence and conscientiousness? If not, we need _some_ way of saying who is, so that they could be matched to higher complexity jobs. It's far for perfect but it works somewhat

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