convexly

4 ms·

1.
by convexly 5mo ago
That claim is testable. The 2026 microstructure work on the Kalshi tape (72M trades, Becker) documented a systematic +1.12% excess return for liquidity providing makers and a symmetric -1.12% for takers, plus a longshot bias where 1-cent ye
2.
We scored 10k Polymarket wallets. Calibration barely predicts profit(convexly.app)
4 points by convexly 5mo ago|0 comments
3.
by convexly 5mo ago
I ran this analysis using Convexly, a calibration-tracking tool I'm working on. The Brier scoring math in the post is the same math that runs in the product. Disclosure out of the way. What I did: pulled trade data for the top 100 Poly
4.
We tested the insider trading claim on Polymarket with Taleb-proof methods(convexly.app)
6 points by convexly 5mo ago|1 comments
5.
by convexly 5mo ago
Quick update: 1,934 quiz completions, 44.5% scored overconfident. Most interesting finding was that the quiz itself got more engagement than the product behind it. Added educational tooltips, a public roadmap with voting, and UTM tracking b
6.
by convexly 5mo ago
Both really good points. The research does suggest that the core skill does transfer. The quiz can help with long horizon predictions. The mechanism itself seems to be the actual awareness of overconfidence rather than just domain-specific
7.
by convexly 5mo ago
Thank you! Happy to hear to how it compares!
8.
by convexly 5mo ago
That's all true. I'm a solo founder and have been using Claude heavily to build this. It definitely shows in many places, and I'll make sure to clean those up. I did not expect to get this many visits from a show HN (almost a
9.
by convexly 5mo ago
The change to buttons was based on feedback I got today. The slider disappearing is a bug. Pushing a fix now!
10.
by convexly 5mo ago
Made a few changes based on feedback from this thread: full results now shown immediately with no email gate, changed the UX to include true/false/uncertain buttons + a confidence slider, I cleaned up the quiz result page, and fix
11.
by convexly 5mo ago
Can't fault that, actually a great workflow. Calibration helps you know which ones to research!
12.
by convexly 5mo ago
Update at 2 hours: 1350+ quiz takers! 50% overconfident, 40% well-calibrated, and 10% underconfident. The average score is around 0.228, with the best score still at 0.007 (nearly perfect). The pattern so far is people are most overconfiden
13.
by convexly 5mo ago
Great recommendation. That was one of the biggest influences for starting to write my decisions down and then building this.
14.
by convexly 5mo ago
That's fair, I'll flag those or maybe even add regional context. Nice score, well above average!
15.
by convexly 5mo ago
That's awesome, hadn't seen this one! I like the confidence interval approach.
16.
by convexly 5mo ago
That's honest feedback, I appreciate it. The post quiz shouldn't feel like a sales funnel. I'll clean that up. Working on it!
17.
by convexly 5mo ago
Your point on scoring is correct, if you're 100% confident and right on everything you would score a perfect 0. The calibration insight is in how you handle the questions where you don't know the answer. Say you're highly kno
18.
by convexly 5mo ago
Actually means you have really strong knowledge. That 17% gap though is what gets people in trouble in high-stakes settings!
19.
by convexly 5mo ago
That's definitely better framing for this question. Much cleaner way to illustrate that point!
20.
by convexly 5mo ago
I just removed that, full results should be fully visible without email! A hard refresh should show the update.
21.
by convexly 5mo ago
That's a really good UX idea. I can see how it's not the most intuitive now. Separating the direction from the confidence level would make it much clearer. Adding that to my list.
22.
by convexly 5mo ago
Fair point! Bad question on my end. The overconfidence was based on all 10 questions though, not just that one!
23.
by convexly 5mo ago
You're right, that's a mistake in how I phrased the question. It should say "six times in a row" not "twice in a row". Fixing it now! Thanks for pointing that out!
24.
by convexly 5mo ago
For sure. Zscalar can block certain requests. Glad it works on your phone!
25.
by convexly 5mo ago
Great question. Calibration specifically is about whether your confidence in an answer matches your accuracy, not whether you know the answer. Someone who knows a lot but is always 90% confident would score poorly even if they're wrong
26.
by convexly 5mo ago
That's the second best score I've seen today out of 700+ quiz takers! Exceptional calibration. The confidence angle is the whole point, people don't know how far off they actually are until they see the hard data!
27.
by convexly 5mo ago
Just checked and everything is up. That might just be a console warning, but shouldn't affect the quiz. Can you try a hard refresh (ctrl+shift+R)? If that still doesn't work, what browser are you on?
28.
by convexly 5mo ago
The variance is normal, the questions pull from a pool of 138 questions so far. 0.177 is strong. Setting everything to 50% would just get you 0.25, so you did way better on the first attempt. The goal isn't 50/50 on everything, on
29.
by convexly 5mo ago
Just pushed a fix for that! You should be able to see everything without inputting your email now. I've made a note about font size, thank you for the feedback.
30.
by convexly 5mo ago
The point I was going for was more so how people handle questions they don't know the answer to. Someone that is "well-calibrated" would set things they are uncertain about at closer to 50% instead of guessing one way or the

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