chaos_emergent

8 ms·

1.
by chaos_emergent 1mo ago
Because it’s good on benchmarks but not on real usage?
2.
by chaos_emergent 1mo ago
It’s hard to compound in a negative direction for too long, no? People see a compounded value for a short period of time and say “that’s not the direction we want to go, let’s course correct”.
3.
by chaos_emergent 1mo ago
I don’t think it would - tokens are so profitable and the race dynamics make the deployment timelines for most renewables untenable. Throughput for solar projects is very high and increasing, latency is unfortunately also very high.
4.
by chaos_emergent 1mo ago
It’s an industrial supply bottleneck and rollout timeline incompatibility rather than a Dr Doom Evil Genius Complex that prevents everyone from deploying solar. The race dynamics make the discount rate on GPU deployments very high. Solar is
5.
by chaos_emergent 2mo ago
Aren’t month over month gains and losses aren’t particularly surprising nor noteworthy when you’re operating a leveraged fund? Shouldn’t one expect higher volatility, but also higher returns?
6.
by chaos_emergent 2mo ago
Nikhil here, CTO @ BuildBetter, YC founder (W19). We’re building ZeroShot, an agent session monitoring tool that builds and shares self-improving skills with your team so you can work with AI agents the way your most productive engineers do
7.
by chaos_emergent 2mo ago
thanks @kplawver! As you know it's early days and we're roughing things out but really excited that you're getting value from it :)
8.
Show HN: ZeroShot: Agent session monitoring to make your team go faster(tryzeroshot.com)
18 points by chaos_emergent 2mo ago|4 comments
9.
by chaos_emergent 2mo ago
If you watch the Dwarkesh interview with Dario, he is extremely conservative with compute allocation as of early 2026, where Sam has been compute-pilled for at least 3 years[1] and believes that we’re going to have several OOMs more FLOPs i
10.
by chaos_emergent 2mo ago
What’s the value of having a ton of silo’d accounts, especially for the use case demonstrated by the readme where there are multiple staging and production accounts?
11.
by chaos_emergent 2mo ago
Right but their payback period is insanely short - a $5M GB200 NVL72 cluster is expected to generate $75M in revenue over 3 years for inference providers. That's a 3 month payback period. AND - they're operating well past their es
12.
by chaos_emergent 2mo ago
I think Tibo was just keeping all else fixed and it’s an illustrative example rather than a perfect real-world trajectory.
13.
by chaos_emergent 2mo ago
The chart makes sense and is describing the cumulative cost of a trajectory. Cache tokens are created when a trajectory’s prefix is used more than once. A larger pre-compaction context window means that a greater number of cache tokens are
14.
by chaos_emergent 2mo ago
RLHF is an increasingly small part of training though? From what I understand most of the capability gain is in RLVR
15.
by chaos_emergent 3mo ago
I think money’s marginal utility just changes from a vehicle for material comfort to a way to keep score.
16.
by chaos_emergent 3mo ago
Totally agree with you. K8s ends up being the simplest solution for a very complex problem
17.
by chaos_emergent 3mo ago
In addition to all of OP’s points, another reason k8s is getting popular is that LLMs have made them easier to use! It's reasonably well represented in the dataset and there are pretty strong monitoring and observability tools and veri
18.
by chaos_emergent 3mo ago
This morning, while putting in daily contacts, I realized I was down to my last few pairs. Still standing at the bathroom sink, I used the ChatGPT app on my phone to voice-command the Codex app on my computer to book an optometrist appointm
19.
by chaos_emergent 5mo ago
We can look to other forms of automation to get a sense of what to do. For example, planes largely fly themselves and a loss of life due to manufacturing errors from the manufacturer would deem them liable for those deaths. Seems like the s
20.
by chaos_emergent 5mo ago
Yeah I think this is more coherent than people realize. Economically relevant knowledge work is things that humans find cognitively demanding. Otherwise they wouldn't be valued in the first place. It ties the definition to economic val
21.
by chaos_emergent 5mo ago
I wouldn’t really call it “DIY” per se, k8s has the resource API and you can create whatever scaling policies you want to with it, but I do see how that’s not obvious when it’s advertised as ‘batteries included’
22.
by chaos_emergent 5mo ago
I posted just that on the Twitter feed but then I realized that railroad started at the beginning of an industrial revolution where labor was a far larger portion of GDP compared to industrial production. So it kind of makes sense that the
23.
by chaos_emergent 5mo ago
Thinking in counterfactuals, how would the hype around Codex would be different if it was organic and because they had built a genuinely good product? Asking as someone who genuinely loves Codex and has been in the OpenAI camp for months af
24.
by chaos_emergent 5mo ago
Yeah I hate the title because it almost verges on clickbaity because one assumes that he's making the assertion that AI has a moral stance in the first place, versus AI being morally neutral and driven by its wielder
25.
by chaos_emergent 5mo ago
The reality is that none of that shit matters if you can build a product that people use and want to pay for. I would back someone who has made a dollar off of a product over someone who has built a great product that no one uses 100% of th
26.
by chaos_emergent 5mo ago
> All thinking does is burn output tokens for accuracy “All that phenomenon X does is make a tradeoff of Y for Z” It sounds like you’re indignant about it being called thinking, that’s fine, but surely you can realize that the mechanism
27.
by chaos_emergent 5mo ago
An alternative but similar formulation of that statement is that Anthropic has spent more training effort in getting the model to “feel good” rather than being correct on verifiable tasks. Which more or less tracks with my experience of us
28.
by chaos_emergent 6mo ago
Most of the value I’ve gotten out of is has been observability. Graph and DAG workflow abstractions just help OTel structure your LLM logs in a clean hierarchy of spans. I could imagine figuring out a better solution to this than the whole
29.
by chaos_emergent 6mo ago
Have you considered that Claude set up a crontab that does that programmatically? Every 10 mins seems awfully, idk, regular.
30.
by chaos_emergent 6mo ago
The writer mentioned that people's intuitions about the distribution of land and where it's most valuable are wildly off, what exactly are people's intuitions that run counter to the data presented? It seems fairly intuitive

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