caeril

6 ms·

1.
by caeril 2y ago
Apparently you forgot the WHO's catastrophic missteps during COVID? At some point, you need to fire your under-performing partners.
2.
by caeril 2y ago
Is there an argument here beyond armchair psychologizing? GPT-3 is over 4 years old. The writing was on the wall then. FAANG status-strivers had plenty of warning to maybe stop blowing their TC on impressing other people, and choose instead
3.
by caeril 2y ago
These models are far better teachers for my kids than their actual teachers. they are far more engaged, able to go down rabbit holes guided by their own curiosity, and end up learning more. I do my best to ensure they're not using thes
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by caeril 2y ago
Really? Let's hypothesize that some rando on the internet contacted you and said he was Jensen Huang, and he offered to sell his NVDA stock to you at $50/sh (currently trading at $135). Looking for a quick flip, you wire your fami
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by caeril 2y ago
It depends on the complexity of your campaign. Back in the day when I played D&D, we had a DM who would throw together typical hack-and-slash-and-loot campaigns, in which you wanted to maximize your STR, CON, DEX, and INT( if you were a
6.
by caeril 2y ago
> > which could include sexual assault or drug use Wouldn't any potion, including potions of healing, be considered "drug use"? Howabout excessive drinking by dwarves at a tavern in the canonical DM party formation ritu
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by caeril 2y ago
> Well, unless public healthcare, then it 'hurts' all tax payers No, it also hurts private insurance customers( in the US ). Healthy weight people, and those who exercise are subsidizing the premiums of people who refuse to put
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by caeril 2y ago
> take over the microphone and address a room with 500 people in it I'm not sure this has anything to do with introversion. Speech and debate clubs are filled with introverts. The notion of "stage fright" is completely ort
9.
by caeril 2y ago
"Passion" is an overused term, but it's absolutely clear that developers who love what they do are nearly an order of magnitude better than those who are punching the clock. In a very specific sense, I tend to perform reverse
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by caeril 2y ago
You might also be oblivious to what depression IS, because clinical psychologists are, as well. Depression is a cluster of symptoms, for all intents and purposes. There is some evidence that SSRIs help these symptoms, but direct causal sera
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by caeril 2y ago
Men are overrepresented at both ends of nearly all bell curves. Men have fatter tails in most distributions you can think of. More presidents, but also more suicides. You are effectively saying that because men are more likely to be preside
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by caeril 2y ago
She worked briefly at Amazon, and she was an accountant. She did not work on critical technology, logistics, growth strategy, design, or operations. There is no world in which she deserves, by dint of her contributions, anything more than $
13.
by caeril 2y ago
Denial policy should be very very simple: If you're seeking coverage for lung cancer, but you chose to smoke, denied. If you're seeking coverage for type II diabetes, but you weigh 400lbs, denied. If you're seeking coverage f
14.
by caeril 2y ago
Bear in mind that a "1 million token" context window isn't actually that. You're being sold a sparse attention model, which is guaranteed to drop critical context. Google TPUs aren't running inference on a TERABYTE
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by caeril 2y ago
> Connections, social intelligence, and knowing how to work the system is what moves things in Washington You're not wrong, but this is a normative observation. The question is, is this how it ought to be ?
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by caeril 2y ago
Yes, because Polymarket offers sports markets, which are still illegal in the US (for US users, anyway). Kalshi has been careful to offer markets in basically everything except sports. It should be obvious what happened here: Polymarket h
17.
by caeril 2y ago
These markets are no more "gambling" than other markets are. A traditional sportsbook maintains a house vig anywhere from 5 to 15%, which is, indeed, a pretty fast path to ruin. They typically don't allow you to exit your pos
18.
by caeril 2y ago
> Feels less combative than Twitter. Echo chambers are, by default, less combative. As Twitter becomes more hiveminded, you can expect it to become less combative, as well.
19.
by caeril 2y ago
One would think, but it's an industry I'll never understand, either. Coca-Cola doesn't need to advertise. It's delicious, everyone knows it exists, and yet they still spend ungodly amounts of money on advertising. KO sha
20.
by caeril 2y ago
> based on traditional definitions A lot of traditional definitions imply some degree of consciousness or sentience. But AGI will ultimately be defined by capabilities, not similarity to humans. If a GPT-style LLM meets or exceeds humans
21.
by caeril 2y ago
There's still a ton of room left in short error-correcting RLHF or fine-tune cycles. I expect there will be, at some point, "trusted" or "verified" accounts that are able to flag a completion as wrong, and provide i
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by caeril 2y ago
Sequoia, and others (who actually receive the quarterly reports) seem pretty happy with their position.
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by caeril 2y ago
> my understanding of the economics is that this would be terrible Deflation is only "terrible" because we have collectively decided to build an economy on debt instead of savings (Keynesian instead of Friedmanian). In a differ
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by caeril 2y ago
100% out of touch, yes, but not wrong. Before kids I had the same exact sentiment, and now, with kids, I still do. Raising a family is a choice, and that choice should be made deliberately, considering all aspects, including financial impac
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by caeril 2y ago
You've been mislead on the "common pay" for software developers by the overemphasis of total compensation from FAANG (partially due to HN bias). Outside of FAANG, most developers earn less than you think in the US, and outsi
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by caeril 2y ago
These are NYC tech workers. "Food" isn't broccoli beef stir fry at home for $8. It's dinner at Del Frisco's for $300. You need to understand that when people bitch about the "cost of living", they're
27.
by caeril 2y ago
Wow, this is some incredible technology. It's not like tmux and neovim have been available for a decade now. This is like space-age alien technology with which, for the first time ever, we can develop over ssh! What a world we live in,
28.
by caeril 2y ago
It's worrying, yes, but we've had stackoverflow copy-paste coding for over a decade now already, which has exactly the same effects. This isn't a new concern. Thoughtless software development started a long time ago.
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by caeril 2y ago
Rural communities have strong social cohesion out of necessity , not desire. I grew up rural, so I have some experience with this. Suburbia hits the sweet spot of introverted personality types: you don't NEED to know your neighbors, b
30.
by caeril 2y ago
> even when the tech does become "good enough", it will take another decade or two before it becomes the main way of doing things. What you're advocating for would be a crime against humanity. Every four years, the medical

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