bubblelicious

10 ms·

1.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
I think you’re welcome to that opinion and are far from alone but (1) I am very happy to pay for Claude, even $200/mo is worth it and (2) idk if people just sort of lose track or what of how far things have come in the span of literall
2.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
I disagree, you have to take yourself back to when electricity was not widely available. How much labor did electricity eliminate? A LOT I imagine. AI will make a lot of things obsolete but I think that is just the inherent nature of such a
3.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
Epoch has a pretty good analysis of bottlenecks here: https://epoch.ai/blog/can-ai-scaling-continue-through-2030 There is plenty of data left, we don’t just train with crawled text data. Power constraints may turn out
4.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
Show me a paper, this makes no sense of course scaling laws are scaling
5.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
Sounds like someone has no knowledge of the literature, synthetic data isn’t like asking ChatGPT to give you a bunch of fake internet data.
6.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
Right let’s not have done the Industrial Revolution or the Internet or electricity
7.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
This based on any non anecdotal evidence by chance?
8.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
And you don’t think that’s already happening? Also where is your evidence for this?
9.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
Why do people think this is any different than other major economic revolutions like electricity or the Industrial Revolution? Society is not going to collapse, things will just get weirder in both unbelievably positive ways and then also u
10.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
Where does this view come from? I’m not aware of any real evidence for this. Also consider our data center buildouts in 26 and 27 will be absolutely extraordinary, and scaling is only at the beginning. You have a growing flywheel and plenty
11.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
Are you talking about just preferences or A/B tests on like retention and engagement? The latter I think is pretty reliable and powerful though I have never personally done them. Preferences are just as big a mess: WHO the annotators a
12.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
I work on LLM benchmarks and human evals for a living in a research lab (as opposed to product). I can say: it’s pretty much the Wild West and a total disaster. No one really has a good solution, and researchers are also in a huge rush and
13.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
I’m not really sure how you envision AI use at your job but AI can be the extremely imperfect tool it is now and also be extremely useful. What part of AI use to you feels like a slot machine?
14.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
It just totally is different from my own personal experience which leads me to believe people just are lamenting poor usage of AI tools which is very understandable. But nuanced and effective AI use, even today with current models, is incre
15.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
I think that’s perfectly fair. However, if you were leadership in this scenario, and you see people using various AI tools are systematically more productive then the people that aren’t, what would you do?
16.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
What do you mean?
17.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
Can you be more specific? What are the trivial cases you’re talking about? AI just doesn’t work? Coding agents are not saving anyone any time?
18.
by bubblelicious 10mo ago
What’s the controversy, unless people are straw manning or pulling from some bad personal experience? If you are not leveraging the best existing tools for your job (and understanding their limitations) then your output will be lower than i
19.
by bubblelicious 11mo ago
Great take! Certainly resonates with me a lot - this is war path funding - this is geopolitics; and it’s arguably a rational and responsible play - we should expect to see more nationalization - whatever is at the other end of this seems li
20.
by bubblelicious 11mo ago
It’s more like people pretend it’s “obvious” that the market is going to do something or that AI developments are not going to support the spend, it’s just not obvious to me. I think people overweight probability on a bubble. Saying it’s “c
21.
by bubblelicious 11mo ago
> asking where today’s AI bubble – because that’s what it clearly is – fits in a 1990s timeline Yet evidence is: - CAPE is high - NVIDIA has a very large market cap - enormous capital investment in AI and relatively few companies I assum
22.
by bubblelicious 1y ago
I agree — probably my own selective memory and straw-manning. It just feels in my mind like the “vibe” on HN (in terms of articles that reach the front page and top rated comments) is very anti-AI. But of course even if true it is a biased
23.
by bubblelicious 1y ago
Yea a lot of this I understand and appreciate! - offline and even online benchmarks are terrible unless actually a standard product experiment (a/b test etc). Evaluation science is extremely flawed. - skepticism is healthy! - measure o
24.
by bubblelicious 1y ago
Really hard to believe articles like this and even more hard to believe this is the hive mind of hacker news today. Work for a major research lab. So much headroom, so much left on the table with every project, so many obvious directions to