brunblanc

5 ms·

1.
by brunblanc 3y ago
Nassim Taleb just published something interesting, about 'What do you do when you must estimate a probability and there is ZERO information?' https://fooledbyrandomness.com/blog/index.php/2021/09&#x2
2.
by brunblanc 3y ago
Most superforecasters are retired academics or quants. I wouldn't recommend the investment in time that it would require.
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by brunblanc 3y ago
At least half of the article was a synopsis of Tetlock's books. So as a summary, it was okay. If it gets people to go and read the real research though, it's worthwhile.
4.
by brunblanc 3y ago
I think it's important to call out that 'base rate' means very different things to people who have taken an introductory Stochastics class. When you can bring in the memorylessness property of the exponential distribution, Po
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by brunblanc 3y ago
Base rates work pretty well, at least for all cause mortality... hurricane counts per year, and financial markets (over very short time periods). I was using the Good Judgment project as motivation to practice R programming for a while, unt
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by brunblanc 3y ago
DataCamp.com MIT OpenCourseware (for lectures) Labsim - for IT simulations
7.
by brunblanc 3y ago
I do not think I could distinguish any difference in the NYC of the 1850's vs 1910's (before cars were popularized). Electricity was available for the first time in 1890, but the first application was textile mills. The first skys
8.
by brunblanc 3y ago
I have multiple ACAMS certifications (the trade group that certifies all of us Anti-Money Laundering personnel who work at banks). And no, the public can't apply for membership. 1) Search WallStreetOnParade.com and read all of the arti
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by brunblanc 3y ago
I would say that PETTY criminals have difficulty moving money around electronically. Criminals with LOTS of money do not have any difficulty finding an investment bank to handle money movement. i.e. Epstein JPMorgan, WireCard, Lloyds https
10.
by brunblanc 3y ago
1) Float. Every dollar that is held in limbo 'for checking' is interest income to the bank. 2) Rabid identification requirements lower the risk of new account fraud (which is paid by the bank). 3) Information on who you're se
11.
by brunblanc 3y ago
An interesting read, insofar as what it says about nativist vs immigrant tensions, and how those align with Fourth Turnings. While I'd heard that peak globalism/immigration accompanied the Roaring [19]20's, I was unaware that
12.
by brunblanc 3y ago
Maybe a bit unfair to call it a revolt, given that multiple countries face a decade of constrained capacity on new grid connections. If projects are delayed 10 years because regulators won't connect them to the grid, green energy was n