benl

23 ms·

1.
by benl 3mo ago
You seem to have misunderstood my comment.
2.
by benl 3mo ago
Yes. There are probably a dozen or more across the SP500 and Russel 2000 that will 10-100x in the next 5-10 years. The trick is to be able to identify them!
3.
by benl 3mo ago
Those funds are not whole market funds. But there are things to say about your point too. I’ve commented on that in other threads.
4.
by benl 3mo ago
Well yes it will be hard, and hence maybe not economical, and that’s why many people are skeptical of the business case (myself included btw). But satellite cooling already exists (Starlink v2 satellites dissipate heat at over a kilowatt I
5.
by benl 3mo ago
The bet is that demand for AI tokens will continue to grow exponentially. And that SpaceX will be able to deploy and rent out GPUs to serve those tokens faster than anyone else. The wrinkle is that they are planning to deploy those GPUs in
6.
by benl 3mo ago
If whole market means whole market, then such investments are exposed to companies who are fairly valued, companies who are massively overvalued, and companies who are massively undervalued, and the whole range in between. If you want to st
7.
by benl 3mo ago
SpaceX is valued at that revenue multiple because of its expected revenue growth rate. This deal is part of that revenue growth. So the new revenue would be already partially or even fully priced-in. Perhaps it reduces uncertainty around th
8.
by benl 4mo ago
But the SPCX float is a small fraction of its overall shares. So it will end up being around 0.08% to 0.12% of the weight of the SP500 [1]. Nothing to write home about. Personally, I do think SpaceX is overvalued at these proposed IPO numbe
9.
by benl 4mo ago
Technically I think this would be fairly straightforward. You could keep the index fund and then short the stock you believe is overvalued, to the degree it's weighted in the index fund. That would give you stock market exposure equiva
10.
by benl 5mo ago
£10,000 per year for Mr Darcy is 10,000 gold sovereigns per year. A gold sovereign at spot price today is about $1,100. So that’s over 10 million dollars per year in gold-equivalent wealth. Plenty to maintain his estate with. Alternatively,
11.
by benl 8mo ago
Yes, launch cost is the crux of the matter. My skepticism is based on whether they’ll be able to get launch cost low enough and launch cadence high enough. SpaceX has shown the ability to get launch costs dramatically lower and cadence dram
12.
by benl 8mo ago
Data centers in space may or may not make sense (personally I'm quite skeptical) but the objections in the article certainly don't make sense. 1. The only reason there are 15,000 satellites in space is because SpaceX launched abou
13.
by benl 1y ago
Your explanation of finding a surface to separate good reasoning traces from bad reasoning traces in a high dimensional space worked as a great framing of the problem. It seems though that the surface will be fractal - the distance between
14.
by benl 4y ago
> Sydney > Venom > Fury > Riley "My name is Legion: for we are many"
15.
by benl 4y ago
Darkness is the absence of light. In this usage light would represent a moral agent, and so darkness is its absence - either no morality or no agency or both.
16.
by benl 4y ago
True Due Date is great, thank you for making it! My wife is pregnant and, because the nearest maternity unit is 1hr45mins drive away, we're going to rent a place near it around the due date. This just gave me a confidence boost about w
17.
by benl 7y ago
I found “Aristotle for Everybody” by Mortimer J. Adler to be really great. The topic of the immateriality of the intellect is covered in the last few chapters, but the rest of it is great stuff too.
18.
by benl 7y ago
You might be more familiar with the field than me, but my understanding is that’s Dennett position is not well-thought-of in the fields of philosophy of mind and metaphysics. At the very least there are very good cases made that unpick his
19.
by benl 7y ago
I’ll try because you asked me to, but i think I’ll do a bad job. You’ll get a much better understanding by reading on the topics of philosophy of mind and metaphysics. Here goes, though: 1. Purely immaterial things exist. Think of mathemati
20.
by benl 7y ago
Yes, I used to hold that view too. But actually it turns out that the null hypothesis is that mind is at least partly immaterial, because all attempts to demonstrate the opposite philosophically are fraught with difficulty. I’ve found that
21.
by benl 7y ago
That’s right - we have minds therefore we must be more than just matter. I used to think the opposite, but reading the philosophy on the subject changed my mind. There are a lot of different takes on the topic, but what most added up for me
22.
by benl 7y ago
I used to be a believer of the theory that we are super sophisticated machines. When I read some of the philosophy on the subject I changed my mind. I now believe there must be some immaterial component to our minds. There’s a lot to read o
23.
by benl 7y ago
If you strip out the AGI hype then this just sounds like OpenAI is now moving to monetizing their tech. This makes sense for them but probably not for the philanthropists who originally backed them. Sadly for them, AGI is metaphysically imp
24.
by benl 7y ago
The Crown of Thorns is kept in the treasury at Notre Dame and was due to be displayed all day this Friday for Good Friday. How it ended up there is an interesting tour of European history in itself. Let's hope that it has been saved.
25.
by benl 8y ago
Yes, but it's my argument that claim 1 is incorrect and overhype. AI cannot drive better than humans, and that was an hubristic claim.
26.
by benl 8y ago
It's rather disingenuous of AI researchers to complain of overhype when they are the ones claiming that their tech should be used to drive cars and hence, as we've seen, kill people. AI winter will be caused, once again, by the fa
27.
by benl 8y ago
I'm sorry you thought I was being dismissive. I felt I had reached the limit of my own pursuasiveness on the question and wanted to point you to somewhere better than me. One final point I will try to make is that in thinking about how
28.
by benl 8y ago
That sounds like you're saying something like this: "I believe empiricism is true because empiricism seems to be true." We strive to live our lives based on reason, so we should look for ways to understand the world that go b
29.
by benl 8y ago
> "Non-empirical statements are meaningless" This is a non-empirical statement, given that you probably don't believe that you can demonstrate the truth of it empirically. Putting it another way, perhaps you might agree wi
30.
by benl 9y ago
Hi - Please forward me a copy of one of those emails (to my first name at academia.edu). We only ever send emails from users in response to a request from them to do so (e.g. they send a message or invite a co-author). Please send me the em

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