akrolsmir

6 ms·

1.
by akrolsmir 23d ago
Oh awesome! I love Stripe Atlas overall for the fast/excellent UX, but Clerky supports PBCs and a higher degree of customization (eg useful for incorporating for https://manifest.is since we had previously agreed on an info
2.
by akrolsmir 2mo ago
Agreed re: automatically running Pangram, maybe once the articles hit some vote threshold (or just, frontpage) in case cost is a concern. I think aggregators running AI checks automatically seems quite good, rather than individual readers a
3.
Surplus, an Incubator for Public Good(surplus.dev)
3 points by akrolsmir 3mo ago|1 comments
4.
by akrolsmir 3mo ago
Hey! Surplus is a new incubator I'm organizing, partly as a love letter to early YC. A specific, early YC that I’ve only experienced vicariously: first through PG’s essays, more recently The Social Radars podcast. (When I hear about Pa
5.
A $10k retroactive grant for VaccinateCA(manifund.org)
2 points by akrolsmir 3y ago|1 comments
6.
by akrolsmir 3y ago
Hey! I'm Austin; I'm building better funding mechanisms at Manifund. One kind of grant I'm intrigued by are retroactive grants -- payment for good work, already accomplished. VaccinateCA stood out to me as one examplar effort
7.
by akrolsmir 3y ago
Austin from Manifold here - cool to see this trending! I thought the structure of this prediction market was especially cool, as it forms a collaborative, crowdsourced puzzle challenge to generate the perfect prompt. (I've personally b
8.
by akrolsmir 3y ago
Yeah! I think of Metaculus vs Manifold a bit like NYT vs Twitter -- or to borrow another analogy, lawful good vs chaotic evil. But we're both great places to think about the future in a bit more structured way than pure punditry!
9.
by akrolsmir 3y ago
I don't have any special insight into what happened at Oragenics (my full context on this application includes what's listed at the link, plus a short call with Aaron about his fundraising plans). There's a little more color
10.
by akrolsmir 3y ago
Yeah, agreed that the proposal has a whiff of "too good to be true". The applicant's track record looks fairly good, though (he's previously invested in my startup, Manifold Markets, and otherwise has an interesting hist
11.
by akrolsmir 3y ago
Oh wow -- totally didn't expect one of our grant proposals to be trending on HN! I'm Austin, cofounder at Manifund; we just launched our regranting program last week ( https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/
12.
by akrolsmir 3y ago
Austin from Manifold here -- the actions and fallout from the Whales vs Minnows market definitely led to some soul-searching on our team and among our community. I'm grateful that we're seeing our users get so hyped up about a rel
13.
Whales vs. Minnows and Pitfalls of Prediction Markets(news.manifold.markets)
4 points by akrolsmir 3y ago|1 comments
14.
by akrolsmir 4y ago
Hey! Austin from Manifold here, thanks for the links! I wanted to note that our novel mechanism which we've termed "Maniswap" is indeed pretty cool, but for most intents and purposes a simpler Uniswap constant product market
15.
Which online course is the best for learning front end web development?(manifold.markets)
2 points by akrolsmir 4y ago|1 comments
16.
by akrolsmir 4y ago
Hey! Curious to get your thoughts on this. My girlfriend is interested in trying out more web programming; she's taken a couple of classes in C++ but no html/css/js yet. It's been a long time since I've looked at th
17.
by akrolsmir 4y ago
Hey! I like the idea of this a lot; oftentimes in team standups, I feel our discussions would benefit from a clear issue owner, as well as the space for others to give feedback. I might suggest trying other more granular voting systems inst
18.
by akrolsmir 4y ago
We do have an API to make this pretty simple! Check out https://docs.manifold.markets/api And a not-so-secret endpoint where you can use URL params to prepopulate the question field, eg https://manifold.markets&#
19.
by akrolsmir 4y ago
Manifold Markets | Software & UX Eng | REMOTE | Full Time | https://mni.fo/jobs Manifold Markets is a platform for user-created prediction markets. Our goal is to create the largest, most accessible, and most impactful
20.
Manifold Markets is now open source and supports donations to charity(manifoldmarkets.substack.com)
1 points by akrolsmir 4y ago|0 comments
21.
by akrolsmir 4y ago
Hi HN! We were inspired by Radical Markets to set up a Harberger Tax on all our leaderboard spots. This means that instead of trying to make good predictions in our markets in the hopes of turning a profit, users can just buy a leaderboard
22.
Show HN: We instituted a Harberger Tax for leaderboard spots(manafold.markets)
1 points by akrolsmir 4y ago|1 comments
23.
by akrolsmir 4y ago
Hi! Austin from Manifold here. I'm glad you've found Manifold to be really cool, and want to share it with the world! At the same time, I'm a bit worried this falls afoul of the official guidelines https://news.yco
24.
by akrolsmir 5y ago
Yeah - we do store foreign keys, but Firestore only supports fetching a batch of 10 keys at a time afaict. It might just be the wrong tool, like you said. We do very much want real-time updating, but there are okay integrations for that wit
25.
by akrolsmir 5y ago
We've started on Firebase Cloud Functions, but lately I've been interested in moving our serverless stack to Vercel's functions instead - the developer experience is much better (no idea about cold-starts though). We'd l
26.
by akrolsmir 5y ago
Yeah - Supabase would be my leading bet, if we had to pick a Postgres variant. Would be especially excited for their GraphQL plugin becomes ready: https://supabase.com/blog/2021/12/03/pg-graphql
27.
by akrolsmir 5y ago
Yeah - totally agreed re: eng time > server costs; the db costs are the least significant part of the equation. Fundamentally, I'm trying to optimize for something like "developer happiness as we build out lots of new features
28.
by akrolsmir 5y ago
More context: The main thing I'm unhappy with is the extra developer burden imposed by needing to denormalize information. E.g: I have a user document in Firestore, with userId, name, and avatarUrl. If I want to be able to fetch a list
29.
Prediction market: We're unhappy with Firestore. What will we switch to?(manifold.markets)
43 points by akrolsmir 5y ago|43 comments
30.
by akrolsmir 5y ago
Yup, right now "free-to-play game currency" is a good way to think about Manifold dollars. We'd love to support a real-money equivalent at some point though; stay tuned for updates on this front ( https://manifoldma

More ›