akio

6 ms·

1.
by akio 4mo ago
Yes, they forecast thousands of U.S. elections and thousands of sports games, and their forecasts had excellent calibration—e.g., events they said would happen 30% of the time actually happened about 30% of the time. https://arch
2.
by akio 4mo ago
They went to the wrong place then. ---- Nov. 1, 2016 — Election Update: Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory — https://archive.is/kwdab > Tuesday was another pretty good day of polling for Donald Trump. > Trump rem
3.
by akio 4mo ago
Speak for yourself. That's not why I read FiveThirtyEight. The purpose of FiveThirtyEight was never to be an oracle for the average person. It was always a deliberately wonky site for a wonky audience. They were very clear about that i
4.
by akio 4mo ago
> FiveThirtyEight performed only slightly better than what you could find in any other reputable newspaper FiveThirtyEight gave Trump double the odds of the next highest reputable prediction, which was The New York Times Upshot (15%). Pr
5.
by akio 5mo ago
Trump's second-term clemencies so far have forgiven criminal debts of more than $1.5 billion. That's over 2,000x the amount amount eliminated by Biden's pardons ($680,000). These pardons go to convicted criminals who have tie
6.
by akio 9mo ago
If all your experience comes from Apollo Client and Apollo Server, as the author's does, then your opinion is more about Apollo than it is about GraphQL. You should be using Relay[0] or Isograph[1] on the frontend, and Pothos[2] on the
7.
by akio 1y ago
> I think in this case Europe/Kyiv would actually change its UTC offset to match Europe/Moscow, which I'm pretty sure the TZ database would handle just fine. Another user has already responded to the rest of your comment,
8.
by akio 1y ago
> Appointments become past events. Sounds like an operational nightmare to convert all of them right as they become past events. That is fair. In some models there's a natural separation between a scheduled-at time and a happened-at
9.
by akio 1y ago
We agree that you generally want some information that lets you resolve your event to an IANA time zone for calculations :)
10.
by akio 1y ago
Past events should just be stored as instants, not as a local time plus location or time zone. Further, I believe the historical data is meant to be handled by the named time zone, so Russia moving Dnipro to MSK would create a new time zone
11.
by akio 1y ago
Evan Siroky's Timezone Boundary Builder[0] is a good source of time zone boundary mappings. It can be used via a library in nearly any language you would want[1], or loaded directly into Postgres and used with PostGIS in queries[2] (of
12.
by akio 1y ago
The events in question happen at a physical location at a local time, and so are stored as a local time plus longitude and latitude. If they were stored as instants, and then if a location moved time zones or stopped using DST in the summer
13.
by akio 1y ago
The consequences could look something like 50 shift workers showing up an hour late one day, or a user missing a critical meeting. Dealing with and debugging time zones is already such a confusing mess that I find that anything that makes y
14.
by akio 1y ago
A future appointment at a physical location is usually an agreement between two or more humans. Humans generally don’t use UTC for future physical events, nor they use a time in a named time zone. What they use is a local time and location
15.
by akio 1y ago
That is not quite right. In Postgres, timestamptz (aka timestamp with time zone) represents an instant in time. timestamp (aka timestamp without time zone) represents what you are calling local time. timestamp (without time zone) is exactly
16.
by akio 1y ago
It is not as rare as you might think. The most recent time this happened was March of this year, with Chile's Aysén Region dropping DST and moving to the newly created America/Coyhaique. https://data.iana.org/time-
17.
by akio 1y ago
Good point. As you mention, that doesn’t matter in this case, as even if a new named time zone is added, the stored named time zone would’ve been written before Europe/Dnipro was created (in case anyone’s wondering why this doesn’t inv
18.
by akio 1y ago
You are wrong, and fauigerzigerk is correct. Future physical events, such as an appointment at a physical location, should be stored as unzoned time plus a location (such as an address), NOT with a named time zone. This is because physical
19.
by akio 1y ago
No. Local time should nearly always be used to represent the time of future physical events (along side a geographical location, such as an address). Your method of using a named time zone like “Europe/London” is generally wrong for fu
20.
by akio 1y ago
The majority did not vote for Trump, and I question how many of the minority that did vote for him voted for this , specifically. Almost certainly not all of them, given his approval rating is now well below his popular vote share.
21.
by akio 2y ago
> So far as we have already formed engagements, let them be fulfilled with perfect good faith. A key part.
22.
by akio 2y ago
We use Infisical for both our dev and prod environments. If you're a YC company you can get your first year free. https://infisical.com
23.
by akio 2y ago
Chevron allowed massive regulatory changes whenever a new administration took over. At a time of high political polarization, no one should be asking that we defer to the whatever the current executive branch’s interpretation of the law is.
24.
by akio 3y ago
You can specify parts of a query should be sent in subsequent responses with the @defer directive, and your client and server libraries will handle the rest for you. Server side: https://the-guild.dev/graphql/yoga-serve
25.
by akio 3y ago
> I really don't understand why people ascribe emergent behaviors to these systems such as "theory of mind". It's just randomness. I'm presuming there's just a lot of psycological pareidolia going around. Ah
26.
by akio 3y ago
> The formula for it seems to be to introduce to new characters one layer up, have them each pick a side, then fill in roughly the same arguments again. Maybe this pattern is just spurious, but I'm deeply curious to find out if we h
27.
by akio 3y ago
That is a clue that GPT-4 is not a stochastic parrot and does in fact possess an understanding of language and a model of the world.
28.
by akio 3y ago
Now write a dialog between Mary and David discussing the dialog between Alice and Bob. ---- Mary: David, after listening to Alice and Bob's conversation, it seems to me that Alice is empathizing with John's intentions, while Bob i
29.
by akio 3y ago
GPT-4: ---- Jane: John, I can't believe you're just going to leave me here in the middle of nowhere! This is so typical of you! John: Typical of me? Jane, this is exactly what you signed up for! Adventure, remember? It's not
30.
by akio 3y ago
It's a myth that GPT-4 can't say "I don't know." Often it will respond that it doesn't know something organically, but in cases where it's extra important to be careful, it can be prompted to do so. It wil

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