adam_arthur

4 ms·

1.
by adam_arthur 6d ago
When wages decline, cost of producing the service/good does down too. And when the costs go down, relative demand goes up. When relative demand goes up, the total labor needed expands. How many Uber rides would you take at $5 vs $20? H
2.
by adam_arthur 7d ago
Certainly there's still a business there, I'm not saying they won't exist. But it's not going to be a monopoly-esque business with so many players in the ring, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Deepseek, Alibaba, GLM, Kim
3.
by adam_arthur 7d ago
If the output is commoditized, how much can you afford to pay for the input?
4.
by adam_arthur 7d ago
Yes, agree that token consumption will increase exponentially for the next while. Disagree that the frontier model is where the economic gains will be realized. The smaller the relative gap between frontier and non-frontier/open weight
5.
by adam_arthur 7d ago
There are an enormous number of tasks that can get by on good enough. If you need image recognition, and a 30B model saturates the use case with 100% accuracy, you absolutely wouldn't continue to use the next frontier model as they com
6.
by adam_arthur 7d ago
Nominal wage doesn't really matter, just real wages+purchasing power. Goods and services prices will fall far more than wages for most people. Why? Because there will be far more efficiency and competition than pre-AI. It's plainl
7.
by adam_arthur 7d ago
It seems obvious that labor displacement due to AI will create labor surpluses in existing fields. Which will feel quite bad for many of us in the present, but net-net be good for society in the long run. Wages will go down, but cost of goo
8.
by adam_arthur 13d ago
I've long speculated this when I see these types of comments, because it's actually really difficult to hit usage caps with an efficient dev flow, even when running multiple threads for hours every day. I think some combination of
9.
by adam_arthur 24d ago
Codex (5.6 Sol) is extremely to the point and direct in its responses. Often I'll tell it to summarize what it said only because it's providing too much detail, not that it's using esoteric language or weird claudisms. No ide
10.
by adam_arthur 28d ago
I see the complete opposite becoming the case. In a world where code can be generated rapidly, it's super critical that you have a core few set of people who really understand the macro design of the codebase and can continue to factor
11.
by adam_arthur 1mo ago
Yes, given all the recent data coming out, it seems to me HIIT is a much better bet for general health purposes than LISS style cardio. Curious what the consensus will be a few years out.
12.
by adam_arthur 1mo ago
30y is keyed to inflation expectations. If fed hiked to 5% tomorrow, 30y would invert and yield would go down. It's not as simple as hikes lead to higher 30y yields.
13.
by adam_arthur 1mo ago
Additionally recent studies have shown high duration/volumes of cardio increases plaque buildup in the arteries. "Indeed, many studies have shown a relationship between endurance sports and higher volumes of coronary calcified pla
14.
by adam_arthur 1mo ago
Yes, if you set reasoning to none you can force the granularity of the thinking. It will actually adhere to your request for e.g. 3 sentences max. Thinking mode will override any instructions in the prompt (at least for other models in my e
15.
by adam_arthur 1mo ago
There are tons of core principles that can be learned that largely apply across fields. One prime example, single source of truth for data/concepts. To be violated only when performance is meaningfully improved (denormalized databases)
16.
by adam_arthur 1mo ago
Fat is inherently unhealthy for you beyond some low baseline level. Additional muscle is positive for health, but only up to some reasonable threshold. There is no health benefit to having very high levels of muscle, and in fact it may be n
17.
by adam_arthur 1mo ago
I believe evidence points towards absolute level of fat being more important than % for overall health. E.g. 20% bodyfat at 250lbs is still a lot of fat. Of course it's difficult to ever get very high on absolute fat if at 15% or below
18.
by adam_arthur 1mo ago
It tends to happen when: 1) You must have a crowded optical disc as a precursor (low cup to disc ratio). Genetic and can be tested 2) You have stiff veins/arteries due to poor metabolic/cardio health 3) when blood pressure drops t
19.
by adam_arthur 1mo ago
It's also true that having a crowded optical disc is pretty much a required precursor condition to suffering NAION. Which you can get checked for via a $50 optical scan. No crowded disc, very little risk. (Cup to Disc ratio of 0.2ish o
20.
by adam_arthur 1mo ago
Abstractions allow for better business logic density and fewer tokens per concept/area of code. This is still very meaningful for today's LLMs. Strictly speaking, if codebase A is doing the same thing as codebase B, but is 5-10x t
21.
by adam_arthur 1mo ago
You can already do this with smaller LLMs, like 10B range. The computer vision/image interpretation has been sufficient at this magnitude for a few months now. Can run on most decently powered consumer devices. Latency not great vs ad
22.
by adam_arthur 2mo ago
The first chart in the blog post shows a similar $/performance curve to GPT 5.6. Where 5.6 has optionality to run much cheaper along the same performance curve at lower thinking levels. There's a later chart that shows Opus 5 ahea
23.
by adam_arthur 2mo ago
GPT 5.6 is far more token efficient at most tasks with similar performance. Especially so for Opus 4.8, still to be seen with Opus 5. Where are you getting cheaper per dollar?
24.
by adam_arthur 2mo ago
Exactly. I've found 6 minutes or so the sweet spot for upper bound with 5.6 Sol. And it sounds like the OPs query above requires scanning throughout a large portion of the codebase, which will inherently consume a large number of input
25.
by adam_arthur 2mo ago
The hole can be filled overnight by just raising the retirement age. And if you normalize for longer lifespans, it's perfectly reasonable.
26.
by adam_arthur 2mo ago
When they can sell that for tens of Billions a year against competition, they might have a financial case. In reality, there will be many clones of Claude Design, especially if it gains big revenue traction. Doubly so if you believe the nar
27.
by adam_arthur 2mo ago
Then it's hard to switch? It's irrelevant the reason why, the margin any business can take will be constrained by the cost to switch to a cheaper, good enough, competitor. You are saying it's difficult to switch due to compli
28.
by adam_arthur 2mo ago
Completely different levels of stickiness. The OS runs everything; the LLM can be swapped in a second. (But yes, you will have to tweak prompts+tuning anytime you change models)
29.
by adam_arthur 2mo ago
I say "human-like" in the sense that LLMs are fed in text data largely in the exact form (mapped to tokens) that humans read them. Thus from first principles it's most likely that content which is more understandable to human
30.
by adam_arthur 2mo ago
Information density of the interpretability of the intent from the perspective of a human (or human-like). If the intent is not easy to understand, it's information sparse. Because it takes a lot of CPU (or brainpower) to interpret. Yo

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