abm53

7 ms·

1.
by abm53 3mo ago
You’re trying to make a logical argument from first principles about a complex, dynamic and ultimately social system that admits no such argument.
2.
by abm53 6mo ago
I wouldn’t say the pessimists fall into that category. In my experience they are mostly the subset of engineers who enjoyed coding in and of itself and ——in some cases—— without concern for the end product.
3.
by abm53 6mo ago
I think GP was a joke about the ability of a typical programmer. I certainly read it as one and found it funny.
4.
by abm53 7mo ago
The article doesn’t present any hypotheses regarding this, and I suspect we simply don’t know yet. But if true presumably it’s one of the usual reasons for observing data with low likelihood according to a model: misspecification or statist
5.
by abm53 7mo ago
The rebuttal to this would be that you can do many such tasks in parallel. I’m not sure it’s really true in practice yet, but that would certainly be the claim.
6.
by abm53 7mo ago
I’m unsure exactly in what way you believe it has gone “down the hill” so this isn’t aimed at you specifically but more a general pattern I see. That pattern is people complaining that a particular model has degraded in quality of its respo
7.
by abm53 7mo ago
> If you're the type of programmer who thinks of yourself as just a programmer, and take pride in your secure code, ability to optimize functions and algorithms, you're exactly the kind of programmer AI will replace. The most s
8.
by abm53 7mo ago
More to the point: is randomness of representation or implementation an inherent issue if the desired semantics of a program are still obeyed? This is not really a point about whether LLMs can currently be used as English compilers, but mor
9.
by abm53 8mo ago
Correct… reading code is a much more difficult and ultimately, productive, task. I suspect those using the tools in the best way are thinking harder than ever for this reason.
10.
by abm53 8mo ago
My advice: keep it on a tight leash. In the happy case where I have a good idea of the changes necessary, I will ask it to do small things, step by step, and examine what it does and commit. In the unhappy case where one is faced with a mas
11.
by abm53 8mo ago
> They are prone to nervous breakdown, social withdrawal, and anxiety if anyone within earshot goes outside of the guard rails for acceptable speech. I say this with sincerity: I have met precisely zero young people who I think come anyw
12.
by abm53 10mo ago
I’m trying to figure out if you’re asking a leading question and if so, in which direction…
13.
by abm53 11mo ago
We could make the distinction between price discovery, i.e. what price are people currently willing to buy and sell at (short-term) vs value discovery (long-term).
14.
by abm53 1y ago
Perhaps the best source would now be the statistics of LLM queries, if they were available. Edit: I see they raise this point at length themselves in TFA.
15.
by abm53 1y ago
I’d go further than the other reply: not only do those first two things definitely exist, they probably represent the plurality of programming tasks.
16.
by abm53 1y ago
I assume the original reply was addressing the “never” in this specific point: “The fact is most ordinary mortals never get access to a fraction of that kind of power”
17.
by abm53 1y ago
The most obvious difference (and one worth much more than $10 to me) is that one is native and the other is not.
18.
by abm53 1y ago
I am also constantly astonished. That said, observing attempts by skeptics to “unsuccessfully” prompt an LLM have been illuminating. My reaction is usually either: - I would never have asked that kind of question in the first place. - The o
19.
by abm53 1y ago
Perhaps you could fill in a few of the details for us?
20.
by abm53 1y ago
I’m not sure how this relates to the point raised.
21.
by abm53 1y ago
I agree. In my view many of these small regions (that blend into one another) could be combined to give a much more useful map with more sharply distinct accents. Such a map may be less precise, but far more useful to most.
22.
by abm53 2y ago
I assume PaulDavidThe1st was asking for one which actually supported the assertion.
23.
by abm53 2y ago
In the U.K. I remember it being a novelty flavour for a brief period in the 90s. I’ve not seen or heard of the idea since then, although this may reflect my own consumer preferences.
24.
by abm53 2y ago
100% correct, but there are ways to push Bayesian inference back a step to justify this sort of thing. It of course makes the problem even more complex and likely requires further approximations to computing the posterior (or even the MAP s
25.
by abm53 2y ago
I did raise an eyebrow at it too, but I doubt his contribution was entirely “management of resources”. I think one must also give him the credit for the vision, risk taking and drive to apply the resources at his disposal, and RL, to these
26.
by abm53 2y ago
I think this illustrates the biggest failure mode when people start using LLMs: asking it to do too much in one step. It’s a very useful tool, not magic.
27.
by abm53 2y ago
And I would go further… these “common tasks” cover 80% of the work in even the most demanding engineering or research positions.
28.
by abm53 3y ago
> The hedge funds (usually) discount the expected value by a ton when deciding how much to pay. That’s called a risk premium.
29.
by abm53 3y ago
It’s often a dangerous kind of answer. I once saw somebody say something to the effect that in every Hacker News thread, there is always a highly upvoted comment that sounds completely plausible, well argued, made by somebody who appears hi
30.
by abm53 3y ago
In the space of possibilities, the volume occupied by “not quite smart enough to outwit a corporation but smart enough to outwit a government” seems so vanishingly small as to almost be disregarded entirely.

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