TheCowboy

10 ms·

1.
by TheCowboy 3mo ago
How were you able to use a credit card when it's not a payment they accept?
2.
by TheCowboy 5mo ago
It's an empirical fact that smart people can predict things by doing research. See Tetlock's book Superforecasting. I've been doing it profitably myself for almost 10 years now. I have zero special inside knowledge, and no ac
3.
by TheCowboy 5mo ago
Some of that, sure. But realistically, a lot people are just don't want to pay for every frontier model provider out there as they're released. Not just money, but also time trying them out. (Recommend people at least try out thei
4.
by TheCowboy 6mo ago
It's also a bit overblown. If you could rig a war, you would stand to make a lot more money playing the stock market than small potatoes prediction markets. A lot of money has been on the line based on which party wins elections even b
5.
by TheCowboy 6mo ago
I've been active and profitably trading in prediction markets for a long time now, but I think this perspective is also not helpful. Prediction markets exist within the laws and institutions of society to be able to function, and the p
6.
by TheCowboy 6mo ago
A lot of people assume insider trading in weather markets on data that's publicly available but they're unaware of. It's also a massive whoosh that you only consider the insider trader aspect in choosing to play weather marke
7.
by TheCowboy 6mo ago
PredictIt operated with $850 limits for years, and overall this seemed fine. Limits of various sizes might make sense depending on the subject, where the risk of penalty greater outweighs the potential profits.
8.
by TheCowboy 6mo ago
How would you describe that and have you been applying it?
9.
by TheCowboy 7mo ago
I'm honestly not a big fan of when people throw out numbers implying a high degree of rigor without actually showing me evidence so I can judge for myself. If you're this much more productive, then use some % of that newly discove
10.
by TheCowboy 7mo ago
> If it's so much more productive, where is all the great software that's being built with it? This is such a new and emerging area that I don't understand how this is a constructive comment on any level. You can be skepti
11.
by TheCowboy 1y ago
In theory, there exist people who are exceptional at solving unique problems/challenges or managing things related to such endeavors. Some might specialize in certain classes of problems and gain experience solving variations for many
12.
by TheCowboy 1y ago
Maybe we shouldn't wish widespread harm on society to force them to "reassess their priorities" and engage in civilized dialogue instead.
13.
by TheCowboy 1y ago
> No-one really likes engineering war stories Is that really true? I did keep reading the entire piece. I think they're often interesting and can contain nuggets of wisdom or insight. Or sometimes they're just funny. When I mee
14.
by TheCowboy 1y ago
Right, we're now in reality where the Senate is passing rescissions with a simple majority in addition to the President now doing "pocket rescissions". How do you negotiate in good faith about budget details if anything negot
15.
by TheCowboy 1y ago
Why isn't simply getting another Claude account an option that you've tried before damaging your brain with low quality sleep? Or writing prompts that get fired off by a script once the usage resets when sleeping so that you at le
16.
by TheCowboy 1y ago
One problem with this is crypto AMM (automated market making) works best with stability and low volatility. For example, it's terrible in the context of prediction markets. Market makers get hosed due to real life, and traders (me) can
17.
by TheCowboy 1y ago
I don't think it necessarily leads to a of mastery of data structures and algorithms in the context of leetcode/modern coding interviews. One can do a lot of coding, and even be paid for it, for years and just not even encounter a
18.
by TheCowboy 1y ago
Not primarily the fault of the IRS, as they were just following the law passed in 2017 that didn't go into effect until years later. But there's a chance it gets changed back to the previous way by the same people who passed it.
19.
by TheCowboy 1y ago
This wasn't really on anyone's radar until more recently. I don't think even a simple majority of tech workers even realized this had happened until after the job market had tightened up.
20.
by TheCowboy 1y ago
It's at least useful for seeing how other people are being productive with these tools. I also sometimes find a clever idea that improves that I'm already doing. And documenting the current state of this space as well. It's e
21.
by TheCowboy 1y ago
I think part of the skill in using LLMs is getting a sense for how to effectively break problems down, and also getting a sense of when and when not to do it. The article also mentions this. I think we'll also see ways of restructuring
22.
by TheCowboy 1y ago
> (and hopefully referenced) If it's cited, it's usually by definition not plagiarism. Omitting the reference is passing the work off as your own, but providing that information is giving credit to where it is due.
23.
by TheCowboy 2y ago
I didn't say "decline in support for RSS" but there are many examples of them being removed. Twitter dropped RSS completely. Facebook dropped them for pages. And then other large sites (Youtube I think is one if I recall righ
24.
by TheCowboy 2y ago
It's complicated, and I think it's less malicious in a way that "kneecapped" implies. Sure, RSS still exists in some form, but I think the utility of it has been in decline, and a lot of 'content' simply isn&#x
25.
by TheCowboy 2y ago
> are you a Democrat shill? Surely we can be adults enough to discuss this without the partisan edge.
26.
by TheCowboy 2y ago
I sometimes wonder if I'm just biased or if performance really did get worse. It would be cool to have an anonymous Alexa coder or someone who got the axe there chime in as sometimes happens. But I think the main problem was their enti
27.
by TheCowboy 2y ago
It's definitely not as simple as "watching a hurricane arrive" and required a lot of concerted effort and technological progress to get where we are. And, no, you very much do not want to be on the coast (look up storm surge)
28.
by TheCowboy 2y ago
> What would governments/policy makers actually be able to do with any of this data? Not to denigrate it as a step forward, but I'm having trouble seeing much practical impact at all. You can look at how beneficial hurricane fo
29.
by TheCowboy 2y ago
You're so caught up in your polarized hot take that you completely ignore why people don't want to live in empty areas. A lot of people don't want to live where it's empty. It's really that simple. They like being n
30.
by TheCowboy 2y ago
I'm fine with private sector unions, but public sectors unions don't seem like they tend to always benefit the public. If you were reading this in good faith, the writer of this article lays out a bunch of points that you cannot s

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