TaylorPhebillo

9 ms·

1.
by TaylorPhebillo 3mo ago
This is a reference to one the Recurse Center's social rules: https://www.recurse.com/social-rules I was really impressed with how successful RC is at maintaining an environment where people can learn and grow. Part of
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by TaylorPhebillo 8mo ago
How do prediction markets account for interest rates? I feel like I should be willing to pay no more than ~96 cents for a contract that will definitely resolve to a dollar in a year. Who puts up the other 4 cents?
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by TaylorPhebillo 2y ago
I'm sincerely unclear- is the analysis here that smaller samples (fewer ballots processed by a tabulator) have a higher relative standard deviation than larger samples?
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by TaylorPhebillo 2y ago
Occasionally but pretty rarely. By the time a trade has become actually risk free, as in "I can instantly buy X here and sell X there and make a profit", someone will have realized that and done the trade when it was almost risk f
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by TaylorPhebillo 2y ago
Almost always outside of crypto, the market makers and exchanges are different entities. Exchanges maintain order books- who is willing to buy or sell what, at what prices, plus a lot of rules about tie breaking, order visibility, "imp
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by TaylorPhebillo 3y ago
These are still fairly canonical, and what I got recommended when I started recently. Trading at the Speed of Light by MacKenzie is very good too- a lighter read, but more recent.
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by TaylorPhebillo 4y ago
I see [1] speculate that Coinbase users could be considered unsecured general creditors, and therefore lower priority to repay than secured creditors. That does seem bad on it's own. But nothing about equity investors having higher pri
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by TaylorPhebillo 4y ago
Was this Amazon? Generally equity would replace the cash bonus in subsequent years. Compensation then becomes somewhat uncertain, but if it became a huge pay cut at that company and nowhere else, it seems expected that lots of employees wou
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by TaylorPhebillo 4y ago
[Deleted a previous reply out of an abundance of caution about proprietary strategies] That matches my first order academic understanding of market makers, but not the more detailed work I've read, or the work of the QRs at the handful
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by TaylorPhebillo 4y ago
That seems true, but in practice it seems like a market maker can't offer competitive spreads without having a decent sense of market direction, and they will have to take a position for at least a little while before closing out. So t
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by TaylorPhebillo 4y ago
I'm not familiar with this, does this method require that each value is measured independently of the others? Because in that case, you'd want to use monthly inflation rates, rather than monthly estimates of inflation relative to
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by TaylorPhebillo 4y ago
I've played with it a little bit: Copilot did pretty poorly when I tried using it with Julia- it kept suggesting Python code. I suspect it would do something similar in Elixir. I'm also a vim person who doesn't want to use VS
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by TaylorPhebillo 4y ago
My hunch is that they aren't tailored toward ridiculous images exactly, but if they demonstrated "a woman sitting in a chair reading", it would be really hard to tell if the result was a small modification of an image in the
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by TaylorPhebillo 4y ago
ARM big little uses the same instruction set on each core, right? You wouldn't have one 8.2 core and one 8.4 core?
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by TaylorPhebillo 4y ago
I hope so? But that's hard to study, and Givewell (in contrast to other effective altruism organizations) is fairly conservative about making claims and recommendations.
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by TaylorPhebillo 4y ago
The enormous risk factor from the article is malnutrition. Givewell, an organization which specializes in estimating the cost-effectiveness of forms of charitable giving, suggests treating acute malnutrition could be extremely cost effectiv
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by TaylorPhebillo 4y ago
I'm not totally sure, but I suspect quantitate finance/market makers, of which tech is a big part, would do well during recessions- profits there seem correlated to volatility and volume of stock trading, which I'd guess woul
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by TaylorPhebillo 4y ago
That makes some sense. So buy-borrow-die with all the shares used as collateral generates no taxes, if you can find someone to lend for the full value of the shares. I wonder how high a ratio you can borrow if you're e.g. Musk or Bezos
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by TaylorPhebillo 4y ago
I'm going through Understanding Software Dynamics by Richard Sites now, and it's the first book I've read that covers the practical performance implications of some of these new features, even if briefly.
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by TaylorPhebillo 4y ago
I'm still learning about buy-borrow-die, but US estate taxes are higher than income taxes above ~$12 million, right? Much less capital gains. So buy-borrow-die would generate more taxes than buy-sell-spend?
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by TaylorPhebillo 5y ago
I honestly can't tell how the Softbank vision fund is doing. News articles on it report record breaking profits and losses. The two vision funds were recently-ish reported as being worth $150b, but I can't tell what that translate
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by TaylorPhebillo 5y ago
Is there meaningful, comprehensive data on anything like "What cities are focal points for technology work"? For example, number of software engineers, total software workforce compensation, number of funded startups, etc? Edit: A
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by TaylorPhebillo 5y ago
1/20 the cost sounds good, but can you post your math there, or why you think they can be beat by that margin? It sounds like a fun project to work on, but I worry that the price improvement estimate neglects a lot of what the cloud pr
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by TaylorPhebillo 5y ago
Agreed- I was really interested in the facts cited at the start, less so in the citation-less analysis later. So I looked into the report cited many, many times- it's from the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology. Looking
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by TaylorPhebillo 5y ago
Do you mean as high as 3 seconds, or as low as 3 seconds? C++ compile times on a template heavy project I used recently were in the hours- you'd basically compile overnight and before you went to lunch.
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Software Misadventures Podcast(softwaremisadventures.com)
2 points by TaylorPhebillo 5y ago|0 comments
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by TaylorPhebillo 5y ago
I am poorly qualified to evaluate the claims of the paper, so as a proxy I looked into the qualifications of the authors. Dr Pantazatos is an assistant professor in the Psychiatry department at Columbia, with what appears to be a long recor
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by TaylorPhebillo 5y ago
I used to be engaged in this part of the industry, but haven't looked in a while. So, sincere question: Are V100's still meaningfully popular? I know they were incredible for a long time, but I figured most usage would have shifte
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by TaylorPhebillo 5y ago
I'm sympathetic to the view that "IBM is failing" lacks evidence, but trying to look at the evidence objectively, IBM doesn't seem to be doing well relative to the tech industry broadly. Their stock price is flat since 2
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by TaylorPhebillo 5y ago
I'd be interested in learning more about that if you could share a name of the professor or project?

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