RationalDino

7 ms·

1.
by RationalDino 2y ago
My biggest takeaway is that they nowhere address address the fact that correlation is not necessarily causation. Yes, our childhood affects who we become. But it is not the only thing that affects it. For example Two giant factors come to m
2.
Use Simple Language(rationaldino.substack.com)
2 points by RationalDino 2y ago|1 comments
3.
by RationalDino 3y ago
That is true. But in the early 60s, before the rise of the Religious Right, no such association existed. For example https://www.pbs.org/thisfarbyfaith/journey_4/p_2.html shows the strong Christian support for the
4.
by RationalDino 3y ago
The experiment in question happened over 60 years ago. This was before the War on Drugs, before the hippies, and before most people had any familiarity with these drugs. Public attitudes were very different. And the attitudes of Christians
5.
by RationalDino 3y ago
I am strongly reminded of https://thingofthings.substack.com/p/rationalists-and-the-cu... , which concluded that the kind of person who believes complex irrational arguments is also the kind of person who falls for cons
6.
by RationalDino 3y ago
Or alternately, they staged what appeared to be a fatal accident to put him in a witness protection program. Or alternately, he did it and then tried to back out of the deal. Now arranging an apparently accidental death then became the best
7.
by RationalDino 3y ago
Based on his biographies, I think that Feynman had ADHD. He never demonstrated an ability to do things because he thought he should do them. And, as this story shows, trying just resulted in a demotivated and unproductive Feynman. On the ot
8.
by RationalDino 3y ago
IQ measurement definitely has major flaws.. But IQ is better correlated with job performance than job interviews are. As they say, perfect is the enemy of good. IQ tests are good. We do ourselves no favors by attempting to downplay what sta
9.
by RationalDino 3y ago
According to GDP per capita, before the war Gaza was at $3500/year, while Egypt was at $3700/year. Which says that Egyptians are probably better off than Gazans. Even before the problems of the blockade, lack of electricity, and t
10.
by RationalDino 3y ago
Funny, my mother-in-law lives in Russia and describes nothing of this sort of fear. Young men there do have trouble working internationally. And they do have legitimate fears. But the fears are more along the line of being conscripted and s
11.
by RationalDino 3y ago
The hunters that they brought in who actually did the shooting were also not employees. If they could be there, she could be there. The fact that outside primatologists say that she was the likely best option supports the fact that she shou
12.
by RationalDino 3y ago
The fact that the head of another Swedish wildpark got convicted of manslaughter over the death of a keeper. Given that, it would be hard for those in charge to allow any worker to take risks to save these escaped animals. Even if the worke
13.
by RationalDino 3y ago
The former keeper left the zoo over frustration that the zoo prioritized rollercoasters over the animals. That speaks louder about the CEO's thinking than anything that the CEO might say about it.
14.
by RationalDino 3y ago
I read that as, "Person who made bad decisions concludes that there was no alternative but the bad decisions made." The former keeper should have been given a chance to try. Sign a waiver, the keeper knows the risks. If the chimps
15.
by RationalDino 3y ago
Solving mazes. GTP4 got stuck at 7x7. https://ekzhu.medium.com/gpt-4s-maze-navigation-a-deep-dive-...
16.
by RationalDino 3y ago
The source for his being born wealthy is his father. Who is known to be a conman. For example the emerald story seems to be false. https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-father-errol-never... .
17.
by RationalDino 3y ago
You forget people who are convinced that they are wealthy, and then are convinced that they have humanity's best interest in part. This describes many who fell for crypto Ponzi schemes. Who were convinced that buying into the Ponzi sch
18.
by RationalDino 3y ago
Indeed the more complex and complete you make your rational model, the more tunable weights there are. By just dropping in the right weights, you can get whatever result you want. Therefore complex models tend to produce worse results in pr
19.
by RationalDino 3y ago
No, it actually is much older. https://extropians.weidai.com/extropians/0303/4140.html is Yudowsky inventing the specter of a paperclip maximizer as a potential problem about 20 years ago. He was, of course, the m
20.
by RationalDino 3y ago
The one piece of this that I question is the employee motivations. First, they had offers to walk to both Microsoft and Salesforce and be made good. They didn't have to stay and fight to have money and careers. But more importantly, pu
21.
Supreme Court case about stocks could make Trump's authoritarian dreams reality(vox.com)
7 points by RationalDino 3y ago|0 comments
22.
by RationalDino 3y ago
Yes. The east coast of Sweden is the Baltic Sea, which is not an open ocean. This boat may be perfectly usable there. But that's still not a rough sea. Other than temperature, that is water that I'd be perfectly comfortable swimmi
23.
by RationalDino 3y ago
Declared does not mean real. There have always been questions about the veracity of that "proof of reserves". https://qz.com/binance-proof-of-reserves-solvency-1849884404 Do not forget. Binance operates in a space
24.
by RationalDino 3y ago
What billions will he wind up with? Binance did a lot of fraud and money laundering. Clawbacks are coming. There will be no fortune when the legal system is done with him.
25.
by RationalDino 3y ago
That isn't rough. According to another comment, the Candela can handle waves of up to 1.2 meters. But about half of waves in the open ocean are 2+ meters. So this boat can't handle a normal ocean sea.
26.
by RationalDino 3y ago
I won't define reasoning, just call out one aspect. We have the ability to follow a chain of reasoning, say "that didn't work out", backtrack, and consider another. ChatGPT seems to get tangled up when its first (very go
27.
by RationalDino 3y ago
As I pointed out in a different comment, ChatGPT and friends are based on predicting the training data. As a result they learn to imitate what is in it. To the extent that we provide the training data for such models, we should expect it to
28.
by RationalDino 3y ago
I am fully aware that there are big assumptions. But our most effective experiment so far is based on creating LLMs that try to act like humans. Specifically try to predict the next token that human speech would create. When AI is developed
29.
by RationalDino 3y ago
Random thought. Let's suppose that AGI is about to be invented, and it will wind up having a personality similar to humans. The more that those are are doing the inventing are afraid of what they are inventing, the more that they will
30.
by RationalDino 3y ago
I'm focused on what we do with information we receive. I have no idea what one is supposed to do about unknown information which was not received.

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