NunoSempere

8 ms·

1.
by NunoSempere 2mo ago
Well that's certainly a vibe.
2.
by NunoSempere 3mo ago
If you want all your bad news once a week, you might be interested in: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/ , which my team writes.
3.
by NunoSempere 5mo ago
I have something somewhat similar at < https://blog.sentinel-team.org/ >, tracking events that could kill over a million people.
4.
by NunoSempere 5mo ago
> such a high price For the target audience this is about 5-10% of a month's income, and so is more like a reasonable optimization. > to meet me To improve the distribution of dates, which is more valuable than any single one.
5.
by NunoSempere 5mo ago
Perhaps look into Shapley values as well?
6.
by NunoSempere 10mo ago
I have a regular reminder to use this every now and then because it lifts my mood consistenly :)
7.
by NunoSempere 10mo ago
How do I get access to this?
8.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
Thanks!
9.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
I think it's a good argument to say that we don't know for sure. But people who are addicted to youtube today would probably have done something more meaningful in the 1990s, 2000s, 2010s...?
10.
Dangers of Recommender Systems – Ivan Vendrov(blog.sentinel-team.org)
7 points by NunoSempere 1y ago|5 comments
11.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
We speak with Ivan Vendrov about recommender systems and their impact on human attention and society & how these algorithms shape billions of hours of human time daily.
12.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
> not destroyed - the main fuselage is there, and the other wing is attached - but it's in need of a major rebuild > months to years before they're operation again Good point!
13.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
I did briefly look into how much the estimated $7B was as a proportion of GDP: 7B/2T = 0.35% of GDP, which feels like a lot . For 41 planes it'd be $170M per plane, which seems reasonable when compared to US bombers, but unclear
14.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
This is a weekly brief looking at what the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks are each week. To do this, we parse millions of news pieces a week and discuss the most urgent ones with elite forecasters to find o
15.
Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2025(blog.sentinel-team.org)
8 points by NunoSempere 1y ago|6 comments
16.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
That seems like the kind of problem that would be easily done through monte-carlo approximation? How hard is it to get 1M random rows in a postgres database?
17.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
As a meta-answer, https://manifund.org was created by some cool people I know, and has some cool projects, e.g., https://manifund.org/projects/building-tooling-to-map-how-id... , https://manifund.
18.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
> Can a board member be reasonably responsible for the actions of tens of thousands of employees if they have not explicitly enabled or condoned criminal behaviour? Not sure what the answer is, but if the answer is yes, then that incenti
19.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
I've seen this before, thought it was super interesting, kudos to the author. Leaving this comment for contrast with some other negative comments.
20.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
> Any event or series of events that removes mankind's ability to produce modern computers is a global extinction-level event and rather than dicking around with computers one should really be considering suicide to avoid a slow, pa
21.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
Anecdote mostly checks out, https://stackoverflow.com/questions/42876061/c-single-quotes...
22.
Global Risks Weekly Roundup #18/2025: US tariff shortages, military policing(blog.sentinel-team.org)
3 points by NunoSempere 1y ago|1 comments
23.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
- Shortages of some goods expected in the US starting later this month, because of tariffs. - The power outage on the Iberian Peninsula was the worst in Europe since 2003, and Europe may have been close to a more widespread blackout. - Trum
24.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
Thought it'd be particularly interesting to HN readers not only for the contents, but also for how probabilistic news can look. Still way to go though.
25.
The US Executive vs. Supreme Court Deportations Clash(blog.sentinel-team.org)
3 points by NunoSempere 1y ago|2 comments
26.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
They have a free tier as well, just with fewer samples, and aren't in the zero marginal cost regime
27.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
Another tool in this spirit is < https://carlo.app/ >, which allows you to do this kind of calculation on google sheets.
28.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
I'm guessing this is not an error. If you divide 1/normal(0,1), the full distribution would range from -inf to inf, but the 95% output doesn't have to.
29.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
> if it was available as an app Consider https://f-droid.org/en/packages/com.nunosempere.distribution...
30.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
The android app fits lognormals, and 90% rather than 95% confidence intervals. I think they are a more parsimonious distribution for doing these kinds of estimates. One hint might be that, per the central limit theorem, sums of independent

More ›