5 ms·

Is the hdd demise indeed expected so quickly?

by forscha 11y ago

toomuchtodo 11y ago
It appears so. "By packing 32 or 64 times the capacity per die, 3D NAND will allow SSDs to increase capacity well beyond hard drive sizes. SanDisk, for example, plans 8 TB drives this year, and 16 TB drives in 2016. At the same time, vendors across the flash industry are able to back off two process node levels and obtain excellent die yields." Goodnight spinning disk; you've served us well.
- Retra 11y ago
  They already seem so clunky and primitive!
- notNow 11y ago
  Time to join the ranks of his FDD and CD-ROM buddies
- Keyframe 11y ago
  And we just got 10TB spinning disks on the market! Can't wait for the price to fall down for big SSD storage!
- x0x0 11y ago
  /me does the happy dance an ssd is the best hardware upgrade I've had in the last 5 years Once you get used to it, try using a computer with spinning rust and it will just feel glacial who doesn't need multi-tb ssds in their laptop?
  - deleted 11y ago
    [deleted]
- codemac 11y ago
  I wouldn't count them out, just as much as disk drives were supposed to replace tape for how long now? I bet disks will get even more dense (think 20+ TiB), have better reliability when powered off, and be sold in pallets to large companies mostly. For the consumer market, disk drives are already pretty much dead.
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    It all really depends on the SSD curve. If SSDs continue their price decline and capacity increases as this article mentions, it'd be difficult for HDDs to compete. Tape costs you no power in storage, but HDDs do unless you're powering them down and spinning them back up (which causes significant wear on the motor). SSDs get you cheap storage and lower power consumption, negating both tape and HDDs simultaneously. TL;DR SSD advancement set to deprecate HDDs and tape in near future.
    - codemac 11y ago
      > (which causes significant wear on the motor) [citation needed] Copan and many other companies did really well powering down drives.
- StillBored 11y ago
  I have no doubt that we will see devices that big. The question is will anyone buy them. So its really a question of cost. HD's will be dead next year if I can buy a 10TB SSD for $300.. If it costs $4000, i'm sure HD's will last another couple years.
nolok 11y ago
Not entreprise grade but consummer, and totally anecdotal, but I've bought a 500 GB Samsung EVO 840 SSD for less than 200€ a month ago. Given the specs (performance and capacity) of that drive and my previous experience about a year and a half ago buying a 120 GB SSD, I expected to pay maybe twice that ? Even if the price fall slows down a bit, we're quickly getting to a point where I don't see why you would buy a SSD at home for anything other than your consummer NAS or similar. Anyone who tried a SSD surely isn't willing to go back to HDD for anything other than their "archive/storage" drive. And if this article prediction is true, soon even that will be taken by SSD.
snowwrestler 11y ago
SSDs need to be powered up fairly often to maintain data integrity. So, they're great for the drives in computers, but for external or backup drives--which might only be powered up occasionally, spinning magnetic disks will still be a better choice for a while, it seems. edit: maybe not. Bringing this article up from samcheng's post below: http://www.anandtech.com/show/9248/the-truth-about-ssd-data-retention http://www.anandtech.com/show/9248/the-truth-about-ssd-data-...
- cpr 11y ago
  Do you have a source for this? Just curious.
  - Bill_Dimm 11y ago
    https://blog.korelogic.com/blog/2015/03/24 https://blog.korelogic.com/blog/2015/03/24
    - msie 11y ago
      The title is pure irony ("SSD Storage - Ignorance of Technology is No Excuse"). See an another link posted here. Also from personal experience I have had no problem with an SSD that wasn't powered for 7 days.
    - Symmetry 11y ago
      The author of that piece is actually somewhat confused about how SSDs work. Data retention is a matter of the charge store leaking. An SSD doesn't have any means of refreshing that charge on it's own, the same timer is there whether the drive is on or off. And in fact it will lose data faster if the drive is on since then the drive temperature will be higher. Luckily this sort of data loss isn't a big deal in practice for the reasons outlined elsewhere in this thread.
  - samcheng 11y ago
    This problem is overblown. A new SSD should be expected to have 10 years of data retention, according to: http://www.anandtech.com/show/9248/the-truth-about-ssd-data-retention http://www.anandtech.com/show/9248/the-truth-about-ssd-data-...
MCRed 11y ago
Think about the market dynamics. Not just the 3D technology they are talking about, which brings parity within range, imagine what you would do if you were an SSD maker and this was on the horizon. You'd rush to reach parity because as soon as that happens there's no reason to buy an HD over an SSD. So you're going to want to cut prices as fast as possible so that when the market switches over-- which will be a HUGE tipping point for the industry-- you can get as much market share as you can. Even taking a loss now on a reliable drive may get you customers for life who you can profit from later. I think the transition is going to be extremely dramatic and it's a huge opportunity in this industry. I think we'll be seeing HD makers switching over their product lines to have more and more flash, and more and more flash drives, while re-positioning hard drives to very particular environments where they have an advantage (I'm not sure where these are) But this is going to be a tornado of a market and some people are going to be come very rich as a result.

Is the hdd demise indeed expected so quickly?

by forscha 11y ago

Is the hdd demise indeed expected so quickly?

It appears so. "By packing 32 or 64 times the capacity per die, 3D NAND will allow SSDs to increase capacity well beyond hard drive sizes. SanDisk, for example, plans 8 TB drives this year, and 16 TB drives in 2016. At the same time, vendors across the flash industry are able to back off two process node levels and obtain excellent die yields." Goodnight spinning disk; you've served us well.

Retra 11y ago
They already seem so clunky and primitive!
notNow 11y ago
Time to join the ranks of his FDD and CD-ROM buddies
Keyframe 11y ago
And we just got 10TB spinning disks on the market! Can't wait for the price to fall down for big SSD storage!
x0x0 11y ago
/me does the happy dance an ssd is the best hardware upgrade I've had in the last 5 years Once you get used to it, try using a computer with spinning rust and it will just feel glacial who doesn't need multi-tb ssds in their laptop?
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
codemac 11y ago
I wouldn't count them out, just as much as disk drives were supposed to replace tape for how long now? I bet disks will get even more dense (think 20+ TiB), have better reliability when powered off, and be sold in pallets to large companies mostly. For the consumer market, disk drives are already pretty much dead.
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  It all really depends on the SSD curve. If SSDs continue their price decline and capacity increases as this article mentions, it'd be difficult for HDDs to compete. Tape costs you no power in storage, but HDDs do unless you're powering them down and spinning them back up (which causes significant wear on the motor). SSDs get you cheap storage and lower power consumption, negating both tape and HDDs simultaneously. TL;DR SSD advancement set to deprecate HDDs and tape in near future.
  - codemac 11y ago
    > (which causes significant wear on the motor) [citation needed] Copan and many other companies did really well powering down drives.
StillBored 11y ago
I have no doubt that we will see devices that big. The question is will anyone buy them. So its really a question of cost. HD's will be dead next year if I can buy a 10TB SSD for $300.. If it costs $4000, i'm sure HD's will last another couple years.

nolok 11y ago

Not entreprise grade but consummer, and totally anecdotal, but I've bought a 500 GB Samsung EVO 840 SSD for less than 200€ a month ago. Given the specs (performance and capacity) of that drive and my previous experience about a year and a half ago buying a 120 GB SSD, I expected to pay maybe twice that ? Even if the price fall slows down a bit, we're quickly getting to a point where I don't see why you would buy a SSD at home for anything other than your consummer NAS or similar. Anyone who tried a SSD surely isn't willing to go back to HDD for anything other than their "archive/storage" drive. And if this article prediction is true, soon even that will be taken by SSD.

snowwrestler 11y ago

SSDs need to be powered up fairly often to maintain data integrity. So, they're great for the drives in computers, but for external or backup drives--which might only be powered up occasionally, spinning magnetic disks will still be a better choice for a while, it seems. edit: maybe not. Bringing this article up from samcheng's post below: http://www.anandtech.com/show/9248/the-truth-about-ssd-data-retention http://www.anandtech.com/show/9248/the-truth-about-ssd-data-...

cpr 11y ago
Do you have a source for this? Just curious.
- Bill_Dimm 11y ago
  https://blog.korelogic.com/blog/2015/03/24 https://blog.korelogic.com/blog/2015/03/24
  - msie 11y ago
    The title is pure irony ("SSD Storage - Ignorance of Technology is No Excuse"). See an another link posted here. Also from personal experience I have had no problem with an SSD that wasn't powered for 7 days.
  - Symmetry 11y ago
    The author of that piece is actually somewhat confused about how SSDs work. Data retention is a matter of the charge store leaking. An SSD doesn't have any means of refreshing that charge on it's own, the same timer is there whether the drive is on or off. And in fact it will lose data faster if the drive is on since then the drive temperature will be higher. Luckily this sort of data loss isn't a big deal in practice for the reasons outlined elsewhere in this thread.
- samcheng 11y ago
  This problem is overblown. A new SSD should be expected to have 10 years of data retention, according to: http://www.anandtech.com/show/9248/the-truth-about-ssd-data-retention http://www.anandtech.com/show/9248/the-truth-about-ssd-data-...

MCRed 11y ago

Think about the market dynamics. Not just the 3D technology they are talking about, which brings parity within range, imagine what you would do if you were an SSD maker and this was on the horizon. You'd rush to reach parity because as soon as that happens there's no reason to buy an HD over an SSD. So you're going to want to cut prices as fast as possible so that when the market switches over-- which will be a HUGE tipping point for the industry-- you can get as much market share as you can. Even taking a loss now on a reliable drive may get you customers for life who you can profit from later. I think the transition is going to be extremely dramatic and it's a huge opportunity in this industry. I think we'll be seeing HD makers switching over their product lines to have more and more flash, and more and more flash drives, while re-positioning hard drives to very particular environments where they have an advantage (I'm not sure where these are) But this is going to be a tornado of a market and some people are going to be come very rich as a result.