5 ms·

Life expectancy in India goes up by 5 years in a decade

83 points by linux_devil 13y ago

tokenadult 13y ago
This is good news. The worldwide trend for more than a century is that the countries that are now developed countries have been gaining about 2.5 years of life expectancy each decade (sometimes expressed as "six hours each day").[0] Girls born since 2000 in the developed world are more likely than not to reach the age of 100, with boys likely to enjoy lifespans almost as long. The article "The Biodemography of Human Ageing"[1] by James Vaupel, originally published in the journal Nature in 2010, is a good current reference on the subject. Vaupel is one of the leading scholars on the demography of aging and how to adjust for time trends in life expectancy. An article in a series on Slate, "Why Are You Not Dead Yet? Life expectancy doubled in past 150 years. Here’s why,"[2] gives background on the incremental changes that have increased life expectancy. ("Period life expectancy" is what is usually reported for a whole country. But cohort life expectancy provides a better estimate of future lifespans of young people today,[3] and is still steadily on the rise around the world.) Life expectancy at age 40, at age 60, and at even higher ages is still rising throughout the developed countries of the world.[4] It's great to hear that India is enjoying this kind of development too. [0] http://www.prb.org/Journalists/Webcasts/2010/humanlongevity.aspx http://www.prb.org/Journalists/Webcasts/2010/humanlongevity.... [1] http://www.demographic-challenge.com/files/downloads/2eb51e2860ef54d218ce5ce19abe6a59/dc_biodemography_of_human_ageing_nature_2010_vaupel.pdf http://www.demographic-challenge.com/files/downloads/2eb51e2... [2] http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science_of_longevity/2013/09/life_expectancy_history_public_health_and_medical_advances_that_lead_to.html http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science_of_... [3] http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1963392_1963367,00.html http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1... [4] http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=longevity-why-we-die-global-life-expectancy http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=longevity-w...
- benched 13y ago
  Are longer lifespans better by definition? I realize fully I'm in the minority on this, and y'all can feel free to live forever, for all I care, but I wish that my personal life expectancy was about 40 years shorter than it is. That would have felt about right to me. Complete, and without too much decline. I mean, is everybody's desired lifespan just "as long as possible?"
  - bruceb 13y ago
    This might be one of those things that people say but when the reaper is close then they usually want to push him off a little longer and have more life. Much like money maybe.
    - _delirium 13y ago
      Based on my relatively limited second-hand experience, it depends a lot on health and relationships. Some of my elderly relatives would have loved to live another 10 years, others would've been happy to have died quietly in their sleep 10 years earlier. My grandfather in particular lived to be in his mid 90s, and did not enjoy the last 10 years: outlived all his friends and his wife, couldn't really hear or see well enough to read, watch television, or carry on a conversation, could not walk, couldn't use the toilet without assistance, was on a bunch of painkillers for joint pain, etc. He was definitely of the opinion that there had been some kind of error and he was living past when his time was up.
      - mapt 13y ago
        They wouldn't have been happy to die in their sleep 10 years earlier, they would have been dead. [grammar distinction]. Whether they would have prospectively desired at the time to die in their sleep 10 years earlier, on the other hand, is something we can objectively measure... because suicide is a thing that exists. Did they? Signs point to no.
        _delirium 13y ago
        Suicide sort of occupies a different space with a strong stigma (and in many jurisdictions, legal barriers that can go as far as involuntarily committing someone to forcibly prevent them from committing suicide). Though that's culturally variable. There are many people who would not lift a finger to avoid a heart attack if they had the ability to do so, but who still would not actively kill themselves. A fairly common in-between is elderly people who choose to stay at home rather than go to the hospital, even if what they have is potentially treatable (they sometimes also have do-not-resuscitate and no-life-support orders entered, just in case someone takes them there).
bruceb 13y ago
Now they just need more women (or less men?)
konspence 13y ago
"If your child was born in the last couple of years, he or she is likely to live five years more than children born a decade ago." Isn't this a huge misrepresentation of the statistics behind this article?
- beerglass 13y ago
  Yes, the author needs to take Statistics 101..
  - raghuinc 13y ago
    Thats the Times of India group. They need to take 101 in everything.
deepuj 13y ago
India's demographics is extremely skewed. There are some states that have had higher life expectancy and sex ratio than countries like the US. The higher overall numbers can be attributed to the poorer states doing better over time.
lijman 13y ago
I love India!
- skrebbel 13y ago
  Hey, welcome to Hacker News! When I first came here, I was surprised that people downvoted my comments, so here's just a heads-up in case you wonder about the same: people didn't downvote your comment because they don't love India, or because they don't love that you do - they downvoted your comment because it does not meaningfully contribute to the discussion. Additionally, some may wonder, do you completely, absolutely, love India? That seems like a rather black-and-white attitude for a forum like HN. Or are there things about India that you hate, too? Things that don't make you love it less but still could be better? Maybe some that relate to the subject of this post? That would be a place to start.
  - kamakazizuru 13y ago
    Actually - he posted something snarky about how this is no big deal considering the poverty, rape, sanitation etc issues that India has - and got majorly downvoted for that - and then seems to have edited it to something else.. While a message like "I love X" wouldnt contribute to the discussion - it's usually likely to just be ignored - but not so severely downvoted. Lastly - for the sake of the argument - "love" is anyways not black and white - so someone saying they love something doesn't mean they are making a blanket statement!
    - lijman 13y ago
      Patriotism is not something which needs to be proved on blogs or twitter.If you think poverty or rape has nothing to do with sex ratio of a country then the joke is on you.A valid argument(fact)was made,it was rubbished by "patriotic" people and I showed my patriotism.Sarcasm? PS- the HN account is just new but I've been long time visitor and referring India as "it" respectful?
      - kamakazizuru 13y ago
JoshTriplett 13y ago
Halfway there; now we just need it to go up by a decade every decade, retroactively.
- mathattack 13y ago
  Escape velocity here we come! I hope we hit this before I'm 80. I'm ok with 50 as my terminal age. Maybe even 60. I don't want to be terminal when I need a new hip every few years.
  - maxerickson 13y ago
    This is a story of controlling disease and decreasing childhood and infant mortality. It is not a story of life extension.
    - mathattack 13y ago
      Of course - I'm just running with the singularity dream.
csense 13y ago
Usually, large increases in life expectancy are from reductions in infant mortality. Medical technology has increased the maximum age of humans surprisingly little; for example Ramesses II died at the age of 90 or 91 [1]. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_ii http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_ii
CmonDev 13y ago
This is obviously good news, but I guess the fight with overpopulation is over.
- dmnd 13y ago
  We're winning that fight, though it's not yet over: http://annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/#section=myth-three http://annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/#section=myth-three A quick summary is that lowering child mortality actually reduces the fertility rate, causing population growth to slow. Longer lifespans mean fewer people.
somewhat_drunk 13y ago
Capitalism, ain't it grand?
netcan 13y ago
Any demographers on HN? 'Life expectancy' is itself like GDP of health, a complicated scorecard that includes a lot of things. I would be real interested in an accessible breakdown of demographic ideas 'Infant mortality ratio has come down to 42 in 2012 from 58 per 1,000 live births in the 2005.' My back-of-the-envelope has this contributing 1 year to life expectancy at birth. Additional (surviving babiesaverage lifetime)/1000 = (58-42)65/1000 "Maternal mortality ratio has declined from 301 per 100,000 live births in 2001-03 to 212 in 2007-09," the health ministry said. - I think this contributes another 4-5 months. I'd also be interested in some related questions & gratuitous scifi-like speculations. When are we likely to see 60 year old sports stars. Bernard Hopkins seems to be intent on becoming a 50 year old undisputed boxing champion. When are we likely to see 100 year olds working productively, enjoying physical hobbies, sexually active, sexually attractive… :)
nether 13y ago
I wonder if the people are also happier.

83 points by linux_devil 13y ago

This is good news. The worldwide trend for more than a century is that the countries that are now developed countries have been gaining about 2.5 years of life expectancy each decade (sometimes expressed as "six hours each day").[0] Girls born since 2000 in the developed world are more likely than not to reach the age of 100, with boys likely to enjoy lifespans almost as long. The article "The Biodemography of Human Ageing"[1] by James Vaupel, originally published in the journal Nature in 2010, is a good current reference on the subject. Vaupel is one of the leading scholars on the demography of aging and how to adjust for time trends in life expectancy. An article in a series on Slate, "Why Are You Not Dead Yet? Life expectancy doubled in past 150 years. Here’s why,"[2] gives background on the incremental changes that have increased life expectancy. ("Period life expectancy" is what is usually reported for a whole country. But cohort life expectancy provides a better estimate of future lifespans of young people today,[3] and is still steadily on the rise around the world.) Life expectancy at age 40, at age 60, and at even higher ages is still rising throughout the developed countries of the world.[4] It's great to hear that India is enjoying this kind of development too. [0] http://www.prb.org/Journalists/Webcasts/2010/humanlongevity.aspx http://www.prb.org/Journalists/Webcasts/2010/humanlongevity.... [1] http://www.demographic-challenge.com/files/downloads/2eb51e2860ef54d218ce5ce19abe6a59/dc_biodemography_of_human_ageing_nature_2010_vaupel.pdf http://www.demographic-challenge.com/files/downloads/2eb51e2... [2] http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science_of_longevity/2013/09/life_expectancy_history_public_health_and_medical_advances_that_lead_to.html http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science_of_... [3] http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1963392_1963367,00.html http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1... [4] http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=longevity-why-we-die-global-life-expectancy http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=longevity-w...

benched 13y ago
Are longer lifespans better by definition? I realize fully I'm in the minority on this, and y'all can feel free to live forever, for all I care, but I wish that my personal life expectancy was about 40 years shorter than it is. That would have felt about right to me. Complete, and without too much decline. I mean, is everybody's desired lifespan just "as long as possible?"
- bruceb 13y ago
  This might be one of those things that people say but when the reaper is close then they usually want to push him off a little longer and have more life. Much like money maybe.
  - _delirium 13y ago
    Based on my relatively limited second-hand experience, it depends a lot on health and relationships. Some of my elderly relatives would have loved to live another 10 years, others would've been happy to have died quietly in their sleep 10 years earlier. My grandfather in particular lived to be in his mid 90s, and did not enjoy the last 10 years: outlived all his friends and his wife, couldn't really hear or see well enough to read, watch television, or carry on a conversation, could not walk, couldn't use the toilet without assistance, was on a bunch of painkillers for joint pain, etc. He was definitely of the opinion that there had been some kind of error and he was living past when his time was up.
    - mapt 13y ago
      They wouldn't have been happy to die in their sleep 10 years earlier, they would have been dead. [grammar distinction]. Whether they would have prospectively desired at the time to die in their sleep 10 years earlier, on the other hand, is something we can objectively measure... because suicide is a thing that exists. Did they? Signs point to no.
      - _delirium 13y ago
        Suicide sort of occupies a different space with a strong stigma (and in many jurisdictions, legal barriers that can go as far as involuntarily committing someone to forcibly prevent them from committing suicide). Though that's culturally variable. There are many people who would not lift a finger to avoid a heart attack if they had the ability to do so, but who still would not actively kill themselves. A fairly common in-between is elderly people who choose to stay at home rather than go to the hospital, even if what they have is potentially treatable (they sometimes also have do-not-resuscitate and no-life-support orders entered, just in case someone takes them there).

bruceb 13y ago

Now they just need more women (or less men?)

konspence 13y ago

"If your child was born in the last couple of years, he or she is likely to live five years more than children born a decade ago." Isn't this a huge misrepresentation of the statistics behind this article?

beerglass 13y ago
Yes, the author needs to take Statistics 101..
- raghuinc 13y ago
  Thats the Times of India group. They need to take 101 in everything.

deepuj 13y ago

India's demographics is extremely skewed. There are some states that have had higher life expectancy and sex ratio than countries like the US. The higher overall numbers can be attributed to the poorer states doing better over time.

lijman 13y ago

I love India!

skrebbel 13y ago
Hey, welcome to Hacker News! When I first came here, I was surprised that people downvoted my comments, so here's just a heads-up in case you wonder about the same: people didn't downvote your comment because they don't love India, or because they don't love that you do - they downvoted your comment because it does not meaningfully contribute to the discussion. Additionally, some may wonder, do you completely, absolutely, love India? That seems like a rather black-and-white attitude for a forum like HN. Or are there things about India that you hate, too? Things that don't make you love it less but still could be better? Maybe some that relate to the subject of this post? That would be a place to start.
- kamakazizuru 13y ago
  Actually - he posted something snarky about how this is no big deal considering the poverty, rape, sanitation etc issues that India has - and got majorly downvoted for that - and then seems to have edited it to something else.. While a message like "I love X" wouldnt contribute to the discussion - it's usually likely to just be ignored - but not so severely downvoted. Lastly - for the sake of the argument - "love" is anyways not black and white - so someone saying they love something doesn't mean they are making a blanket statement!
  - lijman 13y ago
    Patriotism is not something which needs to be proved on blogs or twitter.If you think poverty or rape has nothing to do with sex ratio of a country then the joke is on you.A valid argument(fact)was made,it was rubbished by "patriotic" people and I showed my patriotism.Sarcasm? PS- the HN account is just new but I've been long time visitor and referring India as "it" respectful?
    - kamakazizuru 13y ago

JoshTriplett 13y ago

Halfway there; now we just need it to go up by a decade every decade, retroactively.

mathattack 13y ago
Escape velocity here we come! I hope we hit this before I'm 80. I'm ok with 50 as my terminal age. Maybe even 60. I don't want to be terminal when I need a new hip every few years.
- maxerickson 13y ago
  This is a story of controlling disease and decreasing childhood and infant mortality. It is not a story of life extension.
  - mathattack 13y ago
    Of course - I'm just running with the singularity dream.

csense 13y ago

Usually, large increases in life expectancy are from reductions in infant mortality. Medical technology has increased the maximum age of humans surprisingly little; for example Ramesses II died at the age of 90 or 91 [1]. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_ii http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_ii

CmonDev 13y ago

This is obviously good news, but I guess the fight with overpopulation is over.

dmnd 13y ago
We're winning that fight, though it's not yet over: http://annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/#section=myth-three http://annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/#section=myth-three A quick summary is that lowering child mortality actually reduces the fertility rate, causing population growth to slow. Longer lifespans mean fewer people.

somewhat_drunk 13y ago

Capitalism, ain't it grand?

netcan 13y ago

Any demographers on HN? 'Life expectancy' is itself like GDP of health, a complicated scorecard that includes a lot of things. I would be real interested in an accessible breakdown of demographic ideas 'Infant mortality ratio has come down to 42 in 2012 from 58 per 1,000 live births in the 2005.' My back-of-the-envelope has this contributing 1 year to life expectancy at birth. Additional (surviving babiesaverage lifetime)/1000 = (58-42)65/1000 "Maternal mortality ratio has declined from 301 per 100,000 live births in 2001-03 to 212 in 2007-09," the health ministry said. - I think this contributes another 4-5 months. I'd also be interested in some related questions & gratuitous scifi-like speculations. When are we likely to see 60 year old sports stars. Bernard Hopkins seems to be intent on becoming a 50 year old undisputed boxing champion. When are we likely to see 100 year olds working productively, enjoying physical hobbies, sexually active, sexually attractive… :)

nether 13y ago

I wonder if the people are also happier.