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Bitcoin hits year-high of $20
- mrb 14y agoPlus Avalon just started shipping the first mining chip ( http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=70 http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=70 ). And they announced they will only accept bitcoins as payment for the 2nd batch of 500 units @ $1500 ea, which starts selling tomorrow... That potentially means people buying $750k worth of bitcoins for a batch that will sell out really quickly. This will surely push the exchange rate even higher than $20. Edit: there is no resistance upward right now on MtGox. $300k of buys would push to $24. $500k to $30. http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html
- duaneb 14y agoI don't really understand economics at all, but with a $200M market cap (http://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap http://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap), wouldn't $750k of bitcoins be just a blip? Or is it about rate of exchange?
- mrb 14y agoIt's about the rate of exchange. Out of the $200M of bitcoins, only a small fraction is available for sale on exchanges...
- duaneb 14y agoAhh, that makes sense.
- rmc 14y agoNo doubt a large amount has been permanent lost. All it takes is for one early adopter with 100,000 bitcoins to lose their wallet a few years ago. those are gone for good now.
- badgar 14y agoI never thought much about the effect of permanent loss on Bitcoin. Unlike cash, encrypted wallets and the block chain make theft harder than just destruction of the money. A virus which deletes wallets instead of trying to exfiltrate BTC seems much easier to implement and would be pretty devastating for the currency.
- sroecker 14y agoIt has been estimated on bitcointalk that around 1-2% have been lost. That's not really a large amount. You can still divide bitcoins into satoshis (1E-8) or even further with a protocol change in the future.
- illuminate 14y agoOut of curiosity, does this estimate account for stolen wallets, or are these still considered viable?
- yk 14y agoIt is about rate of exchange. Market prices mean, that at this price at least one buyer meets one seller. All the people thinking that the price is too low or too high, who therefore do not buy or sell, do not change the price at all.
- nwh 14y agoOf course the reverse will be true as Avalon attempts to convert $750000 worth of BTC into USD. If they're smart they'll do it in small increments, but it will still have an effect
- muyuu 14y agoLikely they will convert a good chunk of it to CNY not USD. The price arbitrages will go back at USD and other currencies, but the effect is cushioned. Also, being in China they are likely to keep a good part of the profit in BTC to use in services, since a lot is not allowed over there. This can kickstart a local BTC economy where it's needed the most.
- tlrobinson 14y agoIf these ASICs are so efficient at mining Bitcoins I don't understand why Avalon doesn't just run them themselves rather than sell them?
- mrb 14y agoAnswer: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5142307 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5142307
- rmc 14y agoDuring a gold rush, don't be the guy digging for gold. Be the guy selling shovels.
- IgorPartola 14y agoThis. People like Slush who take 2% of each chain block are making a killing, while the rest are burning a hole in their video cards.
- illuminate 14y agoFor their sake, I hope that's the only thing. http://buttcoin.org/bitcoin-mining-rigs-fire-and-electical-hazards http://buttcoin.org/bitcoin-mining-rigs-fire-and-electical-h...
- nextparadigms 14y agoWe're getting into the speculation game again. I don't think this is healthy for Bitcoin. Let Bitcoin grow at its own pace instead of promoting articles that say Bitcoin is now at $18..and now at $20..and now at $24. If you keep doing that, it will crash again, at least down to $15.
- runn1ng 14y agoSpeculation is a part of the free market :)
- supersuperman 14y agoand what's wrong with that? bitcoin is currently more like a stock as the market is waaaaaay too small, and thus you cannot expect stability from it. it will soar, and it will crash, many many more times. but more importantly, it will survive all that and grow steadily in the long term. long term investors are not affected by these bubbles anyway.
- sgornick 14y agoIf the rising dollar volume crossing the blockchain outpaces the rising exchange rate, then it is sustainable. The blockchain output cannot be estimated with certainty though so that will always be a best guesstimate. But certainly the bulk of the value remains from speculative interest rather than organic demand for the coins for use in commerce.
- phyzome 14y agoAnd that's exactly what I want, since I can buy low again. :-P
- VaucGiaps 14y agoI find this one more useful: http://mtgoxlive.com/orders http://mtgoxlive.com/orders
- raverbashing 14y agoIt would be interesting to compare BtC not only to the USD, but also to a bag of currencies, to see if it relates to a USD devaluation 'compared to the rest' (usually JPY, EUR, GBP)
- jerguismi 14y agoLOL, how interesting? It has been going up related to everything else, even gold & silver. I doubt that there exists a better-performing non-hedged asset.
- tcgv 14y agoI guess that, according to the efficient market hypothesis[1], you can expect the price of bitcoins in other currencies to be the same as the price in dollars adjusted by that currency exchange rate. Otherwise easy profit would be possible through arbitrage, and after some people took advantage of the price difference to make some money the prices would stabilize at a point where profitable arbitrage would not be possible anymore. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis
- DennisP 14y agoIf no arbitrage profit is available, nobody will do it and the profit opportunity will return.
- raverbashing 14y ago" according to the efficient market hypothesis[1], you can expect the price of bitcoins in other currencies to be the same as the price in dollars adjusted by that currency exchange rate" You're right, apart from market inefficiencies that's right. But I'm proposing something else, to analyse the variation (which, of course, for BtcGBP is effectively BtcUSD * USDGBP) against other currencies to see if it's (for example, in this case the price of BTCUSD rising) if it's a dollar devaluation or if it's BTC that's increasing in value
- DanBC 14y agoIt'd be good to see it on the Big Mac index (http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/07/daily-chart-17 http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/07/daily-c...)
- hnolable 14y agoWaiting for tokenadult to repost his Bitcoin comment: https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Anews.ycombinator.com+%22greatest+contribution+the+Bitcoin+experiment%22+%22points+by%22 https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Anews.ycombinator.com+... In all seriousness though, there is one interesting thing that is different now from last time. Last time being the previous frenzied Bitcoin price hype bubble that peaked at 31$. No one fears that Bitcoin will crash to 0/pennies anymore once the price stops climbing, at least not due to standard market forces. It's pretty well established now that there is some baseline demand that will form a price bottom (assuming no large network attack occurs). What effect that will have on this bubble (if one forms) is hard to say but it should be interesting and not a repeat of last time.
- pygy_ 14y agoWhen you look at it in log scale, you also realise that the current growth rate is pretty tame compared to what occurred in the spring of 2011. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
- SlipperySlope 14y agoSure many say that now. But what if public greed takes over again and prices rapidly approach say $60, then the price rise would be hyperbolic and crash back to somewhere below here. ... just along for the ride with the bitcoins I mined and am hoarding.
- btbuildem 14y agoWell, you sell high, and buy back low, presumably.
- loeg 14y agoI sold at $17 and don't regret it (bought at $14-15 earlier that week). But my typical use is of bitcoin is a as barter currency (where the other party only cares about dollar value), I'm no speculator.
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- cs702 14y agoAll else being equal, the more people who use Bitcoin (whether as a store of value or medium of exchange), the greater the demand for it -- and therefore the higher its price, because the supply is fixed. This means that in the long run, Bitcoin's price will be positively correlated with its adoption.[1] -- [1] My full thoughts on the matter: http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adoption-and-price-appreciation-of-bitcoin-in-the-long-run/ http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adopt...
- porter 14y agoOf course all things are never equal. The problem with investing in bitcoins for the long-run is that eventually governments will make it illegal. Sure, they can't easily stop you from owning bitcoins, but they can ban businesses from accepting the coins, which would of course collapse the currency overnight. Governments don't like competition.
- efnx 14y agoI'm still wondering why governments see it in their best interest (if it is in their best interest) to make it illegal. I know they can't track their citizen's activity on the network but when an individual cashes out, they would pay taxes on their earnings. To me it seems to be a choice of what does big brother value more - money or information? Banning a business from accepting bitcoin would be as hard as telling a business they couldn't give stuff away for free. I think they could shut down the exchange portals, but they couldn't keep people from trading goods for BTC.
- chii 14y agoits not the gov't who _wants_ to crush bitcoins (but they will probably be the one actually implementing the measures). A currency, and the subsequent control of it, will lend lots of priviledges and power over those who control it. Currently, the central banks (the Feds, and the various EU central banks) control the currency (by control, i mean they are the only ones able to print more of it). Now, i don't really know who controls those banks, but i m willing to bet that they are some powerful vested interests there. These people do not like the gold standard, simply because having a gold standard strips them of their power they currently enjoy. Bitcoin, being a good candidate for a digital gold standard, will be targetd just like the gold standard was targeted in the 70's in the US of A. I really wish bitcoin could become recognized by the normal peoples of the world, but i think it can't, because there is no force behind it. The monopoly on using violence is the only way to have a currency adopted, and i don't see bitcoin getting any of that. my prediction is that bitcoin will be relegated to being a niche currency.
- snake_plissken 14y agoLiquidity is the major issue for the foreseeable future.
- MacsHeadroom 14y agoBitcoin is highly liquid and only becomes more so each day.
- api 14y agoBitcoin has speculative bubbles, fraud, robberies, money laundering, gambling, and Ponzi schemes. I think that takes care of all the qualifications for a real currency. Am I missing anything? :)
- nathanm412 14y agoNow you can add inflation to the list.
- spoiledtechie 14y agoReferences to each of your claims.
- loeg 14y agoNot OP, but I'll fill in the blanks for you: (1) Bubble: http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2011/10/virtual-currencies http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2011/10/virtual-curre... (2) Fraud and Robberies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Theft_and_fraud https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Theft_and_fraud (3) Money laundering: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silk_Road_(anonymous_marketplace) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silk_Road_(anonymous_marketpla... , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Taxation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Taxation (4) Gambling: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Gambling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Gambling (5) Ponzi Scheme: See "Bitcoin Savings and Trust" in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Theft_and_fraud https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Theft_and_fraud Almost all of that was found in the Wikipedia article for Bitcoin (with citations). Please don't be too lazy to do your own research…
- erode 14y agoYour title isn't clear, and it's not even February yet, so I assume you meant "over the last year".
- philfreo 14y agoPlug for my "fastest way to lookup bitcoin price" website: http://bitcoinprices.org/ http://bitcoinprices.org/
- yebyen 14y agoAs long as we're plugging that... http://preev.com http://preev.com
- jpadkins 14y agoAnyone else think this looks like the Gartner Hype cycle? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle Maybe I need to get back in to bitcoin mining...
- MacsHeadroom 14y agoYes.