5 ms·
the chances of a proper nuclear exchange when? This week? This year? At any time in the future? The probability approaches 1.
by functionmouse 3d ago
the chances of a proper nuclear exchange when? This week? This year? At any time in the future? The probability approaches 1.
- mattlondon 3d ago"right now"
- deleted 3d ago[deleted]
- ben_w 3d agoI say same about p(doom): Only makes sense in a time interval, otherwise you have to ask how people categorise a hypothetical AI which fails to overcome the heat death of the universe. (When I say mine is 0.1, this is "in my lifetime as it would be in the absence of not-yet-invented life-extending interventions"; there is a higher risk to me from a nuclear exchange).