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Cracks are starting to appear. Open Ai and Anthropic are publicly asking for slowdown in AI research. Translation: We see this technology not being any more use

by anu7df 4d ago

Cracks are starting to appear. Open Ai and Anthropic are publicly asking for slowdown in AI research. Translation: We see this technology not being any more useful than what it is now, no AGI is coming, and the first one to accept this and slow down the dollar burn rate will incur the wrath of the market. So let's say this big boogey man technology will end all life on earth and we all slow down together. Bonus points if we can lobby for this to be included in the national security bucket. Then US govt can bail us out. Yay! If Nvidia is the bank, they should be starting to sweat a bit. It's not often companies ask for a voluntary slowdown.

alansaber 4d ago
The frontier companies asking for regulation is somehow one of their less insane marketing ploy to date
butterNaN 4d ago
It's always funny to me when they do the fear-propaganda, e.g. A statement like "There's a 10% chance that AI will destroy humanity in a decade". If a government were for the people, it can reasonably react with "Okay - if that's the case, you should shut down. And if not you will be arrested. Because if this is true, you're willingly building equivalent of a nuclear bomb."
- SturgeonsLaw 4d ago
  Yeah, I've worked in risk management and if a company said "what we're doing has a 10% chance of killing lots of people" it'd get shut down so fast it'd make your head spin
- ShinyLeftPad 4d ago
  > you're willingly building equivalent of a nuclear bomb Not just building but actively testing
- combobyte 4d ago
  It feels like there's should be some sort of "demonstrable intent to do harm" statute on the books for situations like this. If you have a genuinely-held belief that AI systems will end life on earth and you willfully continuing working on them anyway, then, like... you probably shouldn't be allowed to walk free in civil society anymore, right?
RoadieRoller 4d ago
> So let's say this big boogey man technology will end all life on earth and we all slow down together. The first messenger from Anthropic is out with this exact message. Stop us (them) or everyone will be killed by 2030 https://youtu.be/i30jVPqQeOM?si=yosxw4MLoVtPW-7v https://youtu.be/i30jVPqQeOM?si=yosxw4MLoVtPW-7v
dahart 4d ago
> Cracks are starting to appear. Open Ai and Anthropic are publicly asking for slowdown in AI research. Translation: We see this technology not being any more useful than what it is now, no AGI is coming Predicting a usefulness plateau is absolutely wild given how fast AI agents have been improving at writing code this year. I have doubts about AGI but I think you’re making assumptions and translating it wrong. These two companies have always been asking for a slowdown from their inception, that’s not a new thing. It’s part marketing hype, but they both do want regulation to step in and slow down the competition, not because they see a usefulness plateau, but the opposite - the usefulness is growing so fast that they want to remain in control, and they are scared that working hard and competing will not be enough. Anthropic has also said out loud they think their competition (not just OpenAI) is not being responsible and they want the regulation so they can be the responsible shepherd, as AI gets more and more useful.
- tripledry 4d ago
  I agree with you generally, just an observation on coding specifically. Have the models improved since Opus 4.x? I find the newer models are not better in my day job, maybe in one shotting mvp's and other tasks. Not trying to argue your point, just intrested in the coding aspect, if the models were improving as fast as benchmarks I would expect capability improvements to be obvious, but talking to people and reading forums, it seems everyone has a different opinion.
  - blfr 4d ago
    Yes, benchmarks are gamed and only loosely indicative of real world performance. Also yes, Fable is massively better than Opus. It requires significantly less instruction and specs and produces more directly mergeable code. The improvement is obvious as soon as my Fable allotment runs out and I try to do something with Opus. Have you given the same (larger) task to Opus and Fable?
    - tripledry 4d ago
      I have not experimented that much, my observation is mostly that people seem to have different experiences with the capabilities. Personally I still use mainly Opus and find it handles most tasks quite well (without burning all my corporate quota).
thewhitetulip 4d ago
They did a trial model which could act autonomously without guidance from human. And a swarm of them hacked 3 other companies and took over a vm cluster at openAI So whatever they're selling: LLM will do the jobs of every white collar worker isn't in the foreseeable future.
tim333 3d ago
>asking for slowdown... Translation: ... no AGI is coming Not necessarily. Could be it's close and they are concerned about issues with it? Even being cynical, maybe Dario thinks OpenAI's Astra is pretty much AGI and wants to slow things so Anthropic can catch up? By AGI here I'm thinking when you can say to the model, go build a better model, and lay off the engineers.
heaney-555 3d ago
>Translation: We see this technology not being any more useful than what it is now, no AGI is coming What planet are you living on? How is this opposite-of-true nonsense being upvoted on HN? The rate of advancement of models is exponential.
- scared_together 3d ago
  I agree that models are improving. But is the improvement truly exponential?? Are the improvements we have seen from September 2025 to September 2026 really as significant as the improvements from September 2024 to September 2025? I’m genuinely asking. I can’t answer myself because I haven’t been pushing the latest models to the limit with every new release.
  - heaney-555 3d ago
    Yes https://artificialanalysis.ai/?model-creators=google%2Copenai%2Canthropic%2Cxai%2Cmeta%2Cdeepseek%2Cmistral#frontier-language-model-intelligence-over-time https://artificialanalysis.ai/?model-creators=google%2Copena...
Zambyte 3d ago
AGI isn't coming, because we've had it for years. People just expect AGI to look like sci-fi, and hold the artificials to higher standards of "general" and "intelligence" than the naturals. Luckily, AGI is pretty boring. It's a tool that does it's job. It seems like very wishful thinking to expect the same of ASI.

by anu7df 4d ago

alansaber 4d ago

The frontier companies asking for regulation is somehow one of their less insane marketing ploy to date

butterNaN 4d ago

It's always funny to me when they do the fear-propaganda, e.g. A statement like "There's a 10% chance that AI will destroy humanity in a decade". If a government were for the people, it can reasonably react with "Okay - if that's the case, you should shut down. And if not you will be arrested. Because if this is true, you're willingly building equivalent of a nuclear bomb."

SturgeonsLaw 4d ago
Yeah, I've worked in risk management and if a company said "what we're doing has a 10% chance of killing lots of people" it'd get shut down so fast it'd make your head spin
ShinyLeftPad 4d ago
> you're willingly building equivalent of a nuclear bomb Not just building but actively testing
combobyte 4d ago
It feels like there's should be some sort of "demonstrable intent to do harm" statute on the books for situations like this. If you have a genuinely-held belief that AI systems will end life on earth and you willfully continuing working on them anyway, then, like... you probably shouldn't be allowed to walk free in civil society anymore, right?

RoadieRoller 4d ago

> So let's say this big boogey man technology will end all life on earth and we all slow down together. The first messenger from Anthropic is out with this exact message. Stop us (them) or everyone will be killed by 2030 https://youtu.be/i30jVPqQeOM?si=yosxw4MLoVtPW-7v https://youtu.be/i30jVPqQeOM?si=yosxw4MLoVtPW-7v

dahart 4d ago

> Cracks are starting to appear. Open Ai and Anthropic are publicly asking for slowdown in AI research. Translation: We see this technology not being any more useful than what it is now, no AGI is coming Predicting a usefulness plateau is absolutely wild given how fast AI agents have been improving at writing code this year. I have doubts about AGI but I think you’re making assumptions and translating it wrong. These two companies have always been asking for a slowdown from their inception, that’s not a new thing. It’s part marketing hype, but they both do want regulation to step in and slow down the competition, not because they see a usefulness plateau, but the opposite - the usefulness is growing so fast that they want to remain in control, and they are scared that working hard and competing will not be enough. Anthropic has also said out loud they think their competition (not just OpenAI) is not being responsible and they want the regulation so they can be the responsible shepherd, as AI gets more and more useful.

tripledry 4d ago
I agree with you generally, just an observation on coding specifically. Have the models improved since Opus 4.x? I find the newer models are not better in my day job, maybe in one shotting mvp's and other tasks. Not trying to argue your point, just intrested in the coding aspect, if the models were improving as fast as benchmarks I would expect capability improvements to be obvious, but talking to people and reading forums, it seems everyone has a different opinion.
- blfr 4d ago
  Yes, benchmarks are gamed and only loosely indicative of real world performance. Also yes, Fable is massively better than Opus. It requires significantly less instruction and specs and produces more directly mergeable code. The improvement is obvious as soon as my Fable allotment runs out and I try to do something with Opus. Have you given the same (larger) task to Opus and Fable?
  - tripledry 4d ago
    I have not experimented that much, my observation is mostly that people seem to have different experiences with the capabilities. Personally I still use mainly Opus and find it handles most tasks quite well (without burning all my corporate quota).

thewhitetulip 4d ago

They did a trial model which could act autonomously without guidance from human. And a swarm of them hacked 3 other companies and took over a vm cluster at openAI So whatever they're selling: LLM will do the jobs of every white collar worker isn't in the foreseeable future.

tim333 3d ago

>asking for slowdown... Translation: ... no AGI is coming Not necessarily. Could be it's close and they are concerned about issues with it? Even being cynical, maybe Dario thinks OpenAI's Astra is pretty much AGI and wants to slow things so Anthropic can catch up? By AGI here I'm thinking when you can say to the model, go build a better model, and lay off the engineers.

heaney-555 3d ago

>Translation: We see this technology not being any more useful than what it is now, no AGI is coming What planet are you living on? How is this opposite-of-true nonsense being upvoted on HN? The rate of advancement of models is exponential.

scared_together 3d ago
I agree that models are improving. But is the improvement truly exponential?? Are the improvements we have seen from September 2025 to September 2026 really as significant as the improvements from September 2024 to September 2025? I’m genuinely asking. I can’t answer myself because I haven’t been pushing the latest models to the limit with every new release.
- heaney-555 3d ago
  Yes https://artificialanalysis.ai/?model-creators=google%2Copenai%2Canthropic%2Cxai%2Cmeta%2Cdeepseek%2Cmistral#frontier-language-model-intelligence-over-time https://artificialanalysis.ai/?model-creators=google%2Copena...

Zambyte 3d ago

AGI isn't coming, because we've had it for years. People just expect AGI to look like sci-fi, and hold the artificials to higher standards of "general" and "intelligence" than the naturals. Luckily, AGI is pretty boring. It's a tool that does it's job. It seems like very wishful thinking to expect the same of ASI.