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This would not be happening if the USA had not launched an attack on Iran This was the desired effect though, as higher oil prices means more profit for US bas

This would not be happening if the USA had not launched an attack on Iran This was the desired effect though, as higher oil prices means more profit for US based oil producers. I'm sure that will trickle down any time now.

fpoling 5d ago
Refineries in US are making even bigger profits. They even skip on maintenance running at 95% capacity non-stop.
- bluGill 5d ago
  For now. They are well aware of the long picture. They know how long they can risk doing without maintenance, and will do it eventually. They are also well aware that EVs are coming and high fuel prices hurt them long term because people will switch and not come back. Someone else suggested they see $85/bbl as the ideal price. I don't know if that is true, but it seems reasonable.
  - fpoling 5d ago
    EV is committing irrespectively of what refineries are doing at this point. The latest Chinese models with a reasonable range are cheaper to manufacture than ICE cars. So I can see why refineries want to get as much money as possible now before the massive switch to EV.
    - bluGill 5d ago
      No Chinese EVs in the US (yet)... This is a really complex optimization problem, but slowing EV adoption, which low gas prices help, is likely the better course for a few more years. Eventually just gouge the petrol users left is the most profit, but I don't think that has been reached yet.
disgruntledphd2 5d ago
> This was the desired effect though Honestly, I think you're giving far too much credit to the current US government.
- gizajob 5d ago
  It’s a simple calculation though and not talked about enough. USA went to war in Iraq 25 years ago thanks to the oilmen in charge at that time. For all the political bluster about Iran and gas prices, $100 oil makes them hugely more profit than $60 oil. Of course producers and shareholders of American oil companies want that extra free money. They’re not pumping oil out of the ground and keeping it at a low price just to be benevolent to the American consumer.
  - toomuchtodo 5d ago
    I think that is a contributor, but the root cause of the Iran war was Netanyahu goading a simple person into it. The US military and intelligence community knew the risk of this, told everyone not to do it, and they did it anyway. (if one is some combination of unsophisticated, irrational, and vain, and in a position of power, they will eventually be exploited by someone more rational and sophisticated, imho)
    - gizajob 5d ago
      That’s correct but it’s multimodal. It might not have been the reason for getting involved in the first place but it does now seem like a reason for something happening every time the oil price starts to drop again.
      - toomuchtodo 5d ago
        Strongly agree, there's alway nuance and complexity.
    - wombat-man 5d ago
      I don't even really understand Israel's game plan here. Iran took a lot of damage but now they control the strait, they have a lot of leverage. Hard to know how it's going to shake out, but how is Israel better off now?
gruez 5d ago
>This was the desired effect though, as higher oil prices means more profit for US based oil producers. I'm sure that will trickle down any time now. That's giving the Trump administration too much credit. Before the war there were pieces about how oil companies were doing worse under Trump than under Biden[1]. Of course, you could argue that the Iran war is Trump finally responding to oil companies, but given that it only started more than a year after he took power, it really makes you wonder whether Trump is bumbling along, or playing some 5d chess with the global oil market. On the flip side there's plenty of evidence that he doesn't want high oil prices, for instance lifting sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil. [1] https://www.economist.com/business/2025/02/06/donald-trump-loves-big-oil-does-big-oil-love-him-back https://www.economist.com/business/2025/02/06/donald-trump-l...
- gizajob 5d ago
  It’s more like 2D chess, so within DJT’s comprehension.
- voakbasda 5d ago
  I don’t know why anyone gives Trump credit for things like this. He (like all elected officials for the past few decades) is a figurehead and has been manipulated by careerists at every step, who themselves are beholden to the lobbyists that grease the wheels of government.
  - iso1631 5d ago
    You reach him by running appropiate messages on fox news Like any senile octogenarian you want to do something, brainwash them to do your bidding and make it think it's their own choice
  - tencentshill 5d ago
    It's not that complicated with him. He literally gets on the phone with CEOs and takes orders directly. But that only sticks until another competing interest talks to him.
softwaredoug 5d ago
Yes its a rule in hell situation. Some folks are getting a larger share of a shrinking pie. I am unsure its by design or just idiocy. (Probably a mix of both).
nisegami 5d ago
Non-US based producers too, I can already see the difference in my country's economic position.

fpoling 5d ago

Refineries in US are making even bigger profits. They even skip on maintenance running at 95% capacity non-stop.

bluGill 5d ago
For now. They are well aware of the long picture. They know how long they can risk doing without maintenance, and will do it eventually. They are also well aware that EVs are coming and high fuel prices hurt them long term because people will switch and not come back. Someone else suggested they see $85/bbl as the ideal price. I don't know if that is true, but it seems reasonable.
- fpoling 5d ago
  EV is committing irrespectively of what refineries are doing at this point. The latest Chinese models with a reasonable range are cheaper to manufacture than ICE cars. So I can see why refineries want to get as much money as possible now before the massive switch to EV.
  - bluGill 5d ago
    No Chinese EVs in the US (yet)... This is a really complex optimization problem, but slowing EV adoption, which low gas prices help, is likely the better course for a few more years. Eventually just gouge the petrol users left is the most profit, but I don't think that has been reached yet.

disgruntledphd2 5d ago

> This was the desired effect though Honestly, I think you're giving far too much credit to the current US government.

gizajob 5d ago
It’s a simple calculation though and not talked about enough. USA went to war in Iraq 25 years ago thanks to the oilmen in charge at that time. For all the political bluster about Iran and gas prices, $100 oil makes them hugely more profit than $60 oil. Of course producers and shareholders of American oil companies want that extra free money. They’re not pumping oil out of the ground and keeping it at a low price just to be benevolent to the American consumer.
- toomuchtodo 5d ago
  I think that is a contributor, but the root cause of the Iran war was Netanyahu goading a simple person into it. The US military and intelligence community knew the risk of this, told everyone not to do it, and they did it anyway. (if one is some combination of unsophisticated, irrational, and vain, and in a position of power, they will eventually be exploited by someone more rational and sophisticated, imho)
  - gizajob 5d ago
    That’s correct but it’s multimodal. It might not have been the reason for getting involved in the first place but it does now seem like a reason for something happening every time the oil price starts to drop again.
    - toomuchtodo 5d ago
      Strongly agree, there's alway nuance and complexity.
  - wombat-man 5d ago
    I don't even really understand Israel's game plan here. Iran took a lot of damage but now they control the strait, they have a lot of leverage. Hard to know how it's going to shake out, but how is Israel better off now?

gruez 5d ago

>This was the desired effect though, as higher oil prices means more profit for US based oil producers. I'm sure that will trickle down any time now. That's giving the Trump administration too much credit. Before the war there were pieces about how oil companies were doing worse under Trump than under Biden[1]. Of course, you could argue that the Iran war is Trump finally responding to oil companies, but given that it only started more than a year after he took power, it really makes you wonder whether Trump is bumbling along, or playing some 5d chess with the global oil market. On the flip side there's plenty of evidence that he doesn't want high oil prices, for instance lifting sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil. [1] https://www.economist.com/business/2025/02/06/donald-trump-loves-big-oil-does-big-oil-love-him-back https://www.economist.com/business/2025/02/06/donald-trump-l...

gizajob 5d ago
It’s more like 2D chess, so within DJT’s comprehension.
voakbasda 5d ago
I don’t know why anyone gives Trump credit for things like this. He (like all elected officials for the past few decades) is a figurehead and has been manipulated by careerists at every step, who themselves are beholden to the lobbyists that grease the wheels of government.
- iso1631 5d ago
  You reach him by running appropiate messages on fox news Like any senile octogenarian you want to do something, brainwash them to do your bidding and make it think it's their own choice
- tencentshill 5d ago
  It's not that complicated with him. He literally gets on the phone with CEOs and takes orders directly. But that only sticks until another competing interest talks to him.

softwaredoug 5d ago

Yes its a rule in hell situation. Some folks are getting a larger share of a shrinking pie. I am unsure its by design or just idiocy. (Probably a mix of both).

nisegami 5d ago

Non-US based producers too, I can already see the difference in my country's economic position.