6 ms·

If oil starts ruining the financial picture on top of just the...global welfare of every living human picture, then maybe, just maybe people will actually give

If oil starts ruining the financial picture on top of just the...global welfare of every living human picture, then maybe, just maybe people will actually give up their addiction.

thendrill 5d ago
You think the planet is gonna run out of oil before it runs out of water.... interesting.
- toomuchtodo 5d ago
  Refinery capacity is the bottleneck, there are only ~420 of them that remain [1] globally. We won't run out of oil, we will run out of refineries as they slowly close over the next 10-15 years. No new ones will be built, out of stranded asset risk. The more painful oil is now, the faster permanent changes occur to destroy the future demand curve [2] [3]. An EV deployed today will last long into the future, while ICE combustion sales continue to decline. China has destroyed oil import demand the equivalent of annual UK oil imports in the last six months, for example. Push those oil and diesel prices up, hold them up as long as possible. Several countries have banned internal combustion vehicle imports to push the needle on the EV trajectory (Ethiopia, Laos) because they are fossil fuel poor. Global EV sales have spiked, and already exceed 25% of total annual vehicles sales (~90M units/year) [4] [5]. We're just discussing how long until we reach tipping points that further accelerate the transition. How much fossil supply chain infra must be impaired to further move the needle? Hard to say, excited to find out. Electrify or get wrecked. To not to is a choice. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49479229 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49479229 (citations) [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49647405 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49647405 (citations) [3] Gas car sales fell 40% in August in China [Charts] - https://carnewschina.com/2026/09/08/gas-car-sales-fell-40-in-august-in-china-charts/ https://carnewschina.com/2026/09/08/gas-car-sales-fell-40-in... - September 8th, 2026 [4] Global sales of combustion engine cars peaked in 2017 - https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/global-sales-of-combustion-engine-cars-peaked-in-2017 https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/global-sales-of-com... - May 21st, 2026 [5] https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales (as of this comment, China has enough EV manufacturing capacity to satisfy global demand; they are currently export constrained and cannot ship fast enough to meet demand)
  - toomuchtodo 5d ago
    Saudi Arabian oil pipeline system hit by projectiles triggering fires - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49661610 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49661610 - September 2026
    - toomuchtodo 5d ago
      IEA warns global oil refining system ‘stretched to the limit’ as Iran, Ukraine wars tighten market - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/iran-war-oil-diesel-iea-hormuz.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/iran-war-oil-diesel-iea-horm... - September 11th, 2026 > The International Energy Agency has cut its 2026 global oil supply forecast by 6% as the Iran war drags on. > It now expects global oil demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day this year. > The energy agency also warned that shrinking inventories and strained refineries could further tighten markets.
- velcrovan 5d ago
  How does the planet run out of water?
  - throw0101d 5d ago
    > How does the planet run out of water? By draining aquifers, for one: * https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06879-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06879-8 * https://unu.edu/inweh/news/world-enters-era-of-global-water-bankruptcy https://unu.edu/inweh/news/world-enters-era-of-global-water-... Certain desalination exists, but can get expensive and energy-intensive (and they it may be necessary to transport the fresh water great distances).
    - velcrovan 5d ago
      OK I see, thank you. The idea of "the planet running out of water" confused me.
- WarmWash 5d ago
  The planet will never run out of oil, because people will always run out of money for it first.
- honr 5d ago
  I don't get your point. The planet will not realistically run out of either. The water price goes up, then soler + desal becomes more cost effective, then people get to use the material that covers 75% of the planet's surface a bit more. Similarly, when oil gets more limited the price goes up and the planet gets to keep its oil while people stop being able to afford burning more of it. Or perhaps this was exactly your point.
OptionX 5d ago
I'd be more than willing to go electric if someone sends me the cash to get an electric, because if I could replace my diesel-guzzling 11yo I would.
- bix6 5d ago
  Same here. Too bad they got rid of the rebates.
- sdcfgy 5d ago
  I'd go electric if they were just cars and not shit android tablets with wheels stuck on them.
  - privong 5d ago
    I agree with you. But to be fair, gasoline powered cars are also converging on being crappy tablets with wheels attached.
  - ItsBob 5d ago
    Every car has a 4G/5G modem in it now! Unless you cut off your search at about 2018, no matter what car you buy, you're giving up data! I don't like it either but you have to pick your battles these days.
    - sdcfgy 5d ago
      Mine is from 2013.
- AshleyGrant 5d ago
  You can't trade in for a used EV that likely wouldn't cost you anything and would save you money?
  - bix6 5d ago
    No if you actually do the math it’s not worth it.
ItsBob 5d ago
Unfortunately it's not as black and white as that. The alternatives here in the UK are limited. It's basically ICE or electric. We have a staggering number of people that live in apartments so charging is out of the question except at public charging points and the cheapest I've seen is £0.40/kWh. Most of the fast chargers are £0.92/kWh. When I get my home charger fitted I'll be paying 6.9p/kWh between midnight and 6am but I have a driveway. Not everyone can give up ICE cars. The logistics don't add up for many people plus the entire world runs on diesel - every truck, earth-mover, factory etc. relies on diesel in some fashion.
- SauciestGNU 5d ago
  Individuals can do some things but not everything. I live in a place without reasonable public transportation but I've replaced 90% or more of my car trips with cycling, including for large grocery runs. I'll acknowledge not everyone is as fit as I am or as willing to put up with bad weather (I ride in snow for months out of the year). Pivoting agriculture from feed grains supporting the livestock industry to crops that humans directly consume would also improve the fuel consumption picture, but people are reluctant to reduce or eliminate meats from their diets.
  - toomuchtodo 5d ago
    > Pivoting agriculture from feed grains supporting the livestock industry to crops that humans directly consume would also improve the fuel consumption picture, but people are reluctant to reduce or eliminate meats from their diets. Cattle herds are at 75-90 year lows, and roughly half of US beef consumption is driven by 12% of folks. They'll be fine with alternate protein sources. US cattle trajectories are locked in due to climate change induced supply cost inflation, meat packing consolidation, and cattle ranchers aging out (there are more farmers over 75 than under 35, average age of a cattle rancher is 58). https://www.npr.org/2026/05/29/nx-s1-5719511/beef-cattle-herd-food-prices https://www.npr.org/2026/05/29/nx-s1-5719511/beef-cattle-her... https://www.npr.org/2026/02/21/nx-s1-5719815/how-rising-beef-prices-are-affecting-oklahoma-ranchers https://www.npr.org/2026/02/21/nx-s1-5719815/how-rising-beef... https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/20/beef-usda-climate-crisis-meat-consumption https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/20/beef-usd...
lopsotronic 5d ago
No, it'll come down to blood once more. With thermonuclear explosives the de-industrialization will be even more complete than it was for Eastern Europe the last go round.

If oil starts ruining the financial picture on top of just the...global welfare of every living human picture, then maybe, just maybe people will actually give up their addiction.

thendrill 5d ago

You think the planet is gonna run out of oil before it runs out of water.... interesting.

toomuchtodo 5d ago
Refinery capacity is the bottleneck, there are only ~420 of them that remain [1] globally. We won't run out of oil, we will run out of refineries as they slowly close over the next 10-15 years. No new ones will be built, out of stranded asset risk. The more painful oil is now, the faster permanent changes occur to destroy the future demand curve [2] [3]. An EV deployed today will last long into the future, while ICE combustion sales continue to decline. China has destroyed oil import demand the equivalent of annual UK oil imports in the last six months, for example. Push those oil and diesel prices up, hold them up as long as possible. Several countries have banned internal combustion vehicle imports to push the needle on the EV trajectory (Ethiopia, Laos) because they are fossil fuel poor. Global EV sales have spiked, and already exceed 25% of total annual vehicles sales (~90M units/year) [4] [5]. We're just discussing how long until we reach tipping points that further accelerate the transition. How much fossil supply chain infra must be impaired to further move the needle? Hard to say, excited to find out. Electrify or get wrecked. To not to is a choice. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49479229 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49479229 (citations) [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49647405 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49647405 (citations) [3] Gas car sales fell 40% in August in China [Charts] - https://carnewschina.com/2026/09/08/gas-car-sales-fell-40-in-august-in-china-charts/ https://carnewschina.com/2026/09/08/gas-car-sales-fell-40-in... - September 8th, 2026 [4] Global sales of combustion engine cars peaked in 2017 - https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/global-sales-of-combustion-engine-cars-peaked-in-2017 https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/global-sales-of-com... - May 21st, 2026 [5] https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales (as of this comment, China has enough EV manufacturing capacity to satisfy global demand; they are currently export constrained and cannot ship fast enough to meet demand)
- toomuchtodo 5d ago
  Saudi Arabian oil pipeline system hit by projectiles triggering fires - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49661610 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49661610 - September 2026
  - toomuchtodo 5d ago
    IEA warns global oil refining system ‘stretched to the limit’ as Iran, Ukraine wars tighten market - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/iran-war-oil-diesel-iea-hormuz.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/iran-war-oil-diesel-iea-horm... - September 11th, 2026 > The International Energy Agency has cut its 2026 global oil supply forecast by 6% as the Iran war drags on. > It now expects global oil demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day this year. > The energy agency also warned that shrinking inventories and strained refineries could further tighten markets.
velcrovan 5d ago
How does the planet run out of water?
- throw0101d 5d ago
  > How does the planet run out of water? By draining aquifers, for one: * https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06879-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06879-8 * https://unu.edu/inweh/news/world-enters-era-of-global-water-bankruptcy https://unu.edu/inweh/news/world-enters-era-of-global-water-... Certain desalination exists, but can get expensive and energy-intensive (and they it may be necessary to transport the fresh water great distances).
  - velcrovan 5d ago
    OK I see, thank you. The idea of "the planet running out of water" confused me.
WarmWash 5d ago
The planet will never run out of oil, because people will always run out of money for it first.
honr 5d ago
I don't get your point. The planet will not realistically run out of either. The water price goes up, then soler + desal becomes more cost effective, then people get to use the material that covers 75% of the planet's surface a bit more. Similarly, when oil gets more limited the price goes up and the planet gets to keep its oil while people stop being able to afford burning more of it. Or perhaps this was exactly your point.

OptionX 5d ago

I'd be more than willing to go electric if someone sends me the cash to get an electric, because if I could replace my diesel-guzzling 11yo I would.

bix6 5d ago
Same here. Too bad they got rid of the rebates.
sdcfgy 5d ago
I'd go electric if they were just cars and not shit android tablets with wheels stuck on them.
- privong 5d ago
  I agree with you. But to be fair, gasoline powered cars are also converging on being crappy tablets with wheels attached.
- ItsBob 5d ago
  Every car has a 4G/5G modem in it now! Unless you cut off your search at about 2018, no matter what car you buy, you're giving up data! I don't like it either but you have to pick your battles these days.
  - sdcfgy 5d ago
    Mine is from 2013.
AshleyGrant 5d ago
You can't trade in for a used EV that likely wouldn't cost you anything and would save you money?
- bix6 5d ago
  No if you actually do the math it’s not worth it.

ItsBob 5d ago

Unfortunately it's not as black and white as that. The alternatives here in the UK are limited. It's basically ICE or electric. We have a staggering number of people that live in apartments so charging is out of the question except at public charging points and the cheapest I've seen is £0.40/kWh. Most of the fast chargers are £0.92/kWh. When I get my home charger fitted I'll be paying 6.9p/kWh between midnight and 6am but I have a driveway. Not everyone can give up ICE cars. The logistics don't add up for many people plus the entire world runs on diesel - every truck, earth-mover, factory etc. relies on diesel in some fashion.

SauciestGNU 5d ago
Individuals can do some things but not everything. I live in a place without reasonable public transportation but I've replaced 90% or more of my car trips with cycling, including for large grocery runs. I'll acknowledge not everyone is as fit as I am or as willing to put up with bad weather (I ride in snow for months out of the year). Pivoting agriculture from feed grains supporting the livestock industry to crops that humans directly consume would also improve the fuel consumption picture, but people are reluctant to reduce or eliminate meats from their diets.
- toomuchtodo 5d ago
  > Pivoting agriculture from feed grains supporting the livestock industry to crops that humans directly consume would also improve the fuel consumption picture, but people are reluctant to reduce or eliminate meats from their diets. Cattle herds are at 75-90 year lows, and roughly half of US beef consumption is driven by 12% of folks. They'll be fine with alternate protein sources. US cattle trajectories are locked in due to climate change induced supply cost inflation, meat packing consolidation, and cattle ranchers aging out (there are more farmers over 75 than under 35, average age of a cattle rancher is 58). https://www.npr.org/2026/05/29/nx-s1-5719511/beef-cattle-herd-food-prices https://www.npr.org/2026/05/29/nx-s1-5719511/beef-cattle-her... https://www.npr.org/2026/02/21/nx-s1-5719815/how-rising-beef-prices-are-affecting-oklahoma-ranchers https://www.npr.org/2026/02/21/nx-s1-5719815/how-rising-beef... https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/20/beef-usda-climate-crisis-meat-consumption https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/20/beef-usd...

lopsotronic 5d ago

No, it'll come down to blood once more. With thermonuclear explosives the de-industrialization will be even more complete than it was for Eastern Europe the last go round.