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The mathematics research results are certainly impressive, but I don't see what that has to do with robotics. Waymo is getting somewhere, but it's been a long

The mathematics research results are certainly impressive, but I don't see what that has to do with robotics. Waymo is getting somewhere, but it's been a long slog. There doesn't seem to be much progress on, say, package delivery. For more, see: https://secondthoughts.ai/p/14-reasons-robotics-is-hard https://secondthoughts.ai/p/14-reasons-robotics-is-hard

frrt 10d ago
That’s because being 99.9999% good isn’t better than 98% + human does the rest + human is liable for screw ups - highly important in edge case scenario’s. It’s more economical. Technology can only generalise+verify so much. E.g automobile production - humans do the QA / touches.
rurban 10d ago
Didn't you follow the robotics advances in the Ukrainian - Russian battlefield? There is now a death zone of 50km, only controlled by drones and automatic weapons.
- red-iron-pine 9d ago
  50km is just the "very likely to get hit" part of the gray zone ISR drones and other tools can go as far as 200km, albeit with worsening visibility. in most cases everything meaningful in that 200k is seen, and the only limitation is range of the drones, artillery, missiles, and potential countermeasures.
- theamk 9d ago
  Those drones can only stay up for a few hours at most. Then they need refueling and relaunch, with plenty of human-only steps. Even if you have terminator-style AI uprising, all you need to do to be safe from those drones is to wait a day. (The automated weapons can probably last longer, but they still need electricity, and there are still a lot of human steps there)
  - 1attice 5d ago
    Ah yes, everyone knows that an AI that plugs itself in is impossible via like the CAP theorem or something
- rcxdude 10d ago
  The drones are obviously very important but they only work in the context of everything else on and around the battlefield, especially people. You aren't holding the line with drones alone, and on the whole they are not autonomous.
  - rurban 10d ago
    They are holding the lines with drones alone nowadays. That's why it's called the deathzone, no humans survive. Some drones have FPV operators, some weapons use AI only already.
    - bigyabai 9d ago
      I think you're painting a slightly misleading picture. The drone AI, computer vision and autonomous fire-control systems existed (and were used in combat) before LLMs/AI was a hot topic. There are applications of modern LLMs and recent AI advances on the front-lines, but they are not the majority contributor to enforcing the death zone. Without modern LLMs, I would bet that the frontlines would look very similar to how they are today.
    - rcxdude 10d ago
      I don't think that's accurate. What I've seen described is actually a surprisingly porous line: The Russians are often behind the Ukrainians and vice-versa, but it doesn't result in a break due to the transparency of the battlefield and the risk of getting killed if spotted, as well as the improvements in getting supplies to units behind 'enemy lines'. Drones shape this a lot but there's still a lot of people on the battlefield.
- kakacik 10d ago
  > There is now a death zone of 50km, only controlled by drones and automatic weapons. If there would be such 50km death zone, front line would not move a nanometer in a year, would it. You yourself contradict above in your next post. No need for being too dramatic, facts are enough here. In reality, frontline is moving constantly albeit by small chunks, russians are advancing a bit, getting beating elsewhere and so on. Automated drones are helping, but bulk of destruction is still handled by human drone operators as it should be.
  - IAmBroom 9d ago
    There is such a thing as a No Man's Land[0]. It can move, but if you don't dare cross it for even a few days, it's very real. It doesn't have to be glacial, and it currently exists in Ukraine. Breakout pockets don't mean it is porous everywhere. [0] Ironically, the French phrase - from ground zero for the first known No Man's Land - is "le No Man's Land".
  - rurban 10d ago
    https://sound.orf.at/podcast/oe1/oe1-journale---gehoert-vertieft/kriegsfuehrung-im-wandel-von-der-panzerfaust-zur-angriffsdrohne https://sound.orf.at/podcast/oe1/oe1-journale---gehoert-vert... [german] I'll take the expert Oberst Markus Reisner from the Austrian Army over anyone else.

frrt 10d ago

That’s because being 99.9999% good isn’t better than 98% + human does the rest + human is liable for screw ups - highly important in edge case scenario’s. It’s more economical. Technology can only generalise+verify so much. E.g automobile production - humans do the QA / touches.

rurban 10d ago

Didn't you follow the robotics advances in the Ukrainian - Russian battlefield? There is now a death zone of 50km, only controlled by drones and automatic weapons.

red-iron-pine 9d ago
50km is just the "very likely to get hit" part of the gray zone ISR drones and other tools can go as far as 200km, albeit with worsening visibility. in most cases everything meaningful in that 200k is seen, and the only limitation is range of the drones, artillery, missiles, and potential countermeasures.
theamk 9d ago
Those drones can only stay up for a few hours at most. Then they need refueling and relaunch, with plenty of human-only steps. Even if you have terminator-style AI uprising, all you need to do to be safe from those drones is to wait a day. (The automated weapons can probably last longer, but they still need electricity, and there are still a lot of human steps there)
- 1attice 5d ago
  Ah yes, everyone knows that an AI that plugs itself in is impossible via like the CAP theorem or something
rcxdude 10d ago
The drones are obviously very important but they only work in the context of everything else on and around the battlefield, especially people. You aren't holding the line with drones alone, and on the whole they are not autonomous.
- rurban 10d ago
  They are holding the lines with drones alone nowadays. That's why it's called the deathzone, no humans survive. Some drones have FPV operators, some weapons use AI only already.
  - bigyabai 9d ago
    I think you're painting a slightly misleading picture. The drone AI, computer vision and autonomous fire-control systems existed (and were used in combat) before LLMs/AI was a hot topic. There are applications of modern LLMs and recent AI advances on the front-lines, but they are not the majority contributor to enforcing the death zone. Without modern LLMs, I would bet that the frontlines would look very similar to how they are today.
  - rcxdude 10d ago
    I don't think that's accurate. What I've seen described is actually a surprisingly porous line: The Russians are often behind the Ukrainians and vice-versa, but it doesn't result in a break due to the transparency of the battlefield and the risk of getting killed if spotted, as well as the improvements in getting supplies to units behind 'enemy lines'. Drones shape this a lot but there's still a lot of people on the battlefield.
kakacik 10d ago
> There is now a death zone of 50km, only controlled by drones and automatic weapons. If there would be such 50km death zone, front line would not move a nanometer in a year, would it. You yourself contradict above in your next post. No need for being too dramatic, facts are enough here. In reality, frontline is moving constantly albeit by small chunks, russians are advancing a bit, getting beating elsewhere and so on. Automated drones are helping, but bulk of destruction is still handled by human drone operators as it should be.
- IAmBroom 9d ago
  There is such a thing as a No Man's Land[0]. It can move, but if you don't dare cross it for even a few days, it's very real. It doesn't have to be glacial, and it currently exists in Ukraine. Breakout pockets don't mean it is porous everywhere. [0] Ironically, the French phrase - from ground zero for the first known No Man's Land - is "le No Man's Land".
- rurban 10d ago
  https://sound.orf.at/podcast/oe1/oe1-journale---gehoert-vertieft/kriegsfuehrung-im-wandel-von-der-panzerfaust-zur-angriffsdrohne https://sound.orf.at/podcast/oe1/oe1-journale---gehoert-vert... [german] I'll take the expert Oberst Markus Reisner from the Austrian Army over anyone else.