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Napkin math if we assume gpt 6 astra on max is >$15 million (just for output tokens) for those wondering.

by hmate9 8d ago

lanthissa 8d ago
over 5 days, you couldn't achieve that level of testing and communication with humans on such a complex problem in that amount of time. some might go so far as to call this a country of geniuses in a data center.
- denverllc 8d ago
  In a way, I think you have it backwards. Two mathematicians, through insight and thought, wrote out the proof over 1-2 years. It took OpenAI a cost of $15m and with 10,000 subagents; that's around 60-120 mathematician's salaries ($250k-125k salary) for 1 year. And, given now the cloud that OpenAI may have just "interpolated" (aka stole) the result, it's even more of a bear case for AI.
  - Kotlopou 8d ago
    Where did you get the human figure?
  - baq 8d ago
    Bear case? I’m sorry? 70x uplift is a bear case?
  - jiggawatts 8d ago
    > cost of $15m The retail price is not the cost. Not to mention that the exponential plummeting cost of tokens means that that $15 million will be a "pocket change" within a decade or less: https://a16z.com/llmflation-llm-inference-cost/ https://a16z.com/llmflation-llm-inference-cost/
    - abathologist 8d ago
      > The retail price is not the cost. True. The cost is probably much higher, since they are still subsidizing as part of the first phase of the enshitification playbook.
pred_ 8d ago
Yeah but they at least they got to steal $1 million from that nasty math prof who didn't want to remove his co-author.
- novia 8d ago
  They said in the post that they are NOT claiming the prize
abathologist 8d ago
This could fund 10 top income mathematicians for 8 years (based on https://careers.usnews.com/best-jobs/mathematician/salary https://careers.usnews.com/best-jobs/mathematician/salary ). Imagine what kinds of results we'd have to transform the foundations of science if we were giving brilliant minds this kind of funding to do nothing but research for most of decade.... Instead, we get slop proofs that are technically correct as PR stunts to enable corrupt kleptocrats, and most likely will drive research into culs-de-sac.

Napkin math if we assume gpt 6 astra on max is >$15 million (just for output tokens) for those wondering.

by hmate9 8d ago

Napkin math if we assume gpt 6 astra on max is >$15 million (just for output tokens) for those wondering.

over 5 days, you couldn't achieve that level of testing and communication with humans on such a complex problem in that amount of time. some might go so far as to call this a country of geniuses in a data center.

denverllc 8d ago
In a way, I think you have it backwards. Two mathematicians, through insight and thought, wrote out the proof over 1-2 years. It took OpenAI a cost of $15m and with 10,000 subagents; that's around 60-120 mathematician's salaries ($250k-125k salary) for 1 year. And, given now the cloud that OpenAI may have just "interpolated" (aka stole) the result, it's even more of a bear case for AI.
- Kotlopou 8d ago
  Where did you get the human figure?
- baq 8d ago
  Bear case? I’m sorry? 70x uplift is a bear case?
- jiggawatts 8d ago
  > cost of $15m The retail price is not the cost. Not to mention that the exponential plummeting cost of tokens means that that $15 million will be a "pocket change" within a decade or less: https://a16z.com/llmflation-llm-inference-cost/ https://a16z.com/llmflation-llm-inference-cost/
  - abathologist 8d ago
    > The retail price is not the cost. True. The cost is probably much higher, since they are still subsidizing as part of the first phase of the enshitification playbook.

pred_ 8d ago

Yeah but they at least they got to steal $1 million from that nasty math prof who didn't want to remove his co-author.

novia 8d ago
They said in the post that they are NOT claiming the prize

abathologist 8d ago

This could fund 10 top income mathematicians for 8 years (based on https://careers.usnews.com/best-jobs/mathematician/salary https://careers.usnews.com/best-jobs/mathematician/salary ). Imagine what kinds of results we'd have to transform the foundations of science if we were giving brilliant minds this kind of funding to do nothing but research for most of decade.... Instead, we get slop proofs that are technically correct as PR stunts to enable corrupt kleptocrats, and most likely will drive research into culs-de-sac.