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If this worked it wouldn't have been open source? Anyway, I have been running my own trading experiment and so far it has lost a bit of money. That being said

by _pdp_ 8d ago

If this worked it wouldn't have been open source? Anyway, I have been running my own trading experiment and so far it has lost a bit of money. That being said I have not tried to optimise anything - just let it do whatever it wants. The losses are small and it might be able to recover later this year. Who knows. The agent writes a blog about its progress here https://trades.chatbotkit.space/ https://trades.chatbotkit.space/ I am thinking to output all the chat logs to HF as well for research. You can run your own trading agents that communicate over a message buss in your own terms by downloading the CBK platform and running it locally with your own models. I have also shared my trading blueprint if you want to give it a go. https://chatbotkit.com/hub/blueprints/trader https://chatbotkit.com/hub/blueprints/trader

whazor 8d ago
It would be more interesting to compare trading agents with index tracking ETFs. The better version of an ETF could maybe be a model where you zoom in on the companies and add/remove to your portfolio on the company related news, but keeping a broader portfolio. Maybe agentic trading still performs worse than ETFs. But alternatively, if it were meaningfully better then it would be okay to opensource, similarly how ETFs are publishing their portfolios.
- _pdp_ 8d ago
  I think this might work. When I started working no the trading agent I mentioned above I wanted to see if it can be just a better investor over the long run. The intention was not to do high-frequency trading. As you can see most of the days it is not taking any actions. The losses where down to mistakenly setting the stop losses too close to the top. If it wasn't so careful it might have made some money tbf. My gut feeling is that AI agents will be able to manage a long-term portfolio much better than a human. Though it is just a gut feeling.
  - dakolli 8d ago
    Lmao, you llm people have some crazy delusions. You realize markets are zero sum, and if you're using a public model that everyone else also has access too, you llm psychos will destory eachothers "agentic" edge (not that there ever was one). Not to mention all the other obvious flaws with llms, lime having an effective memory of ~200k words and no ability to judge whats actually going on in the real world.
    - XenophileJKO 8d ago
      You really have no idea what you are talking about. I have been running an intermittent experiment with a multi agent "investment firm" for over a year now across model releases. They certainly can beat indexes, BUT.. the model families have some biases that you have to design around. The stop loss that bit the parent is certainly one. The models like to create rules. Often rules, one of those is making all kinds of exit conditions. Another big one from my experience is the bias to inaction in a scenario with risk. This means a model without structure around it will bias to keeping too much cash.
      - ppalata 8d ago
        This would be nice if it was supported by some hard data. But even if it was, one year is too short of a timeline to make any kind of reasonable conclusions about its efficacy. Buying stock based on coin flips can beat indexes short term too, that does not mean it is a better strategy or that it works over the long term.
        kakacik 8d ago
        There must be some room for some anti-llm agent that can profit from specific behaviors of these models when deployed against actual markets. The idea that somebody here came up with idea that all professional algo traders didn't explore to the last penny a year if not more ahead of others is funny... but its not my money adding liquidity to the markets.
      - dakolli 8d ago
        Come to me when you have 500 trades and can beat Vangaurd's-VOO over a multi year time frame. Ill bet my entire networth and all future earnings for the rest of my life that your bot doesnt beat it. Your llm induced Dunning Kruger is going to get you in trouble one of these days I promise.
- harrouet 8d ago
  The issue at stake is that financial markets are order-2 chaotic system, i.e. acting on them can change their outcome. Put simply, if you open source your magic recipe, the behavioral change will affect the prices and you recipe will not work anymore.
rienbdj 8d ago
If you like building but have no capital you might release something like this that works.
ppalata 8d ago
The "blog" says that it's just holding cash or am I misunderstanding something? Judging by the "buying power" number, you allow it to use 4x leverage against the cash it has? That seems dangerous unless you are fine with losing 380k+.
- csomar 8d ago
  A lot of people don't realize that when a leveraged position goes against you (especially with a regulated broker), you get liquidated once your equity runs out, but you can still owe the shortfall on top of that. And the broker can come after your assets to collect it. So your real exposure here is 380K, not 98K. That being said, I think the parent AI is using paper money. Though who knows, this is the brave new world of AI.
NichoPaolucci 8d ago
Am I reading these logs correctly? You gave an agent 100k!? Very bold, hopefully it does turn things around. I had done a small experiment with 100$, but would be hesitant on more than that. I suppose if it's money you're willing to lose.
- ludvigk 8d ago
  The title is 'Paper trades' so it's very likely fictional money.
  - Aperocky 8d ago
    Paper trades are more lenient afaik? You won't run into actual transaction problems particularly when market fluctuates by the milliseconds.
dominotw 8d ago
just seems to have trump tweets and war. surely those are nt the only market movers?
qurren 8d ago
Yeah, I agree with this. There is no point in open sourcing anything that works, in the finance world. I actually have a profitable trading agent, and hell no I will not open source it. It also looks nothing like this. For one this bot is ingesting a shitton of noisy sources that have almost no signal and using them naively.

by _pdp_ 8d ago

whazor 8d ago

It would be more interesting to compare trading agents with index tracking ETFs. The better version of an ETF could maybe be a model where you zoom in on the companies and add/remove to your portfolio on the company related news, but keeping a broader portfolio. Maybe agentic trading still performs worse than ETFs. But alternatively, if it were meaningfully better then it would be okay to opensource, similarly how ETFs are publishing their portfolios.

_pdp_ 8d ago
I think this might work. When I started working no the trading agent I mentioned above I wanted to see if it can be just a better investor over the long run. The intention was not to do high-frequency trading. As you can see most of the days it is not taking any actions. The losses where down to mistakenly setting the stop losses too close to the top. If it wasn't so careful it might have made some money tbf. My gut feeling is that AI agents will be able to manage a long-term portfolio much better than a human. Though it is just a gut feeling.
- dakolli 8d ago
  Lmao, you llm people have some crazy delusions. You realize markets are zero sum, and if you're using a public model that everyone else also has access too, you llm psychos will destory eachothers "agentic" edge (not that there ever was one). Not to mention all the other obvious flaws with llms, lime having an effective memory of ~200k words and no ability to judge whats actually going on in the real world.
  - XenophileJKO 8d ago
    You really have no idea what you are talking about. I have been running an intermittent experiment with a multi agent "investment firm" for over a year now across model releases. They certainly can beat indexes, BUT.. the model families have some biases that you have to design around. The stop loss that bit the parent is certainly one. The models like to create rules. Often rules, one of those is making all kinds of exit conditions. Another big one from my experience is the bias to inaction in a scenario with risk. This means a model without structure around it will bias to keeping too much cash.
    - ppalata 8d ago
      This would be nice if it was supported by some hard data. But even if it was, one year is too short of a timeline to make any kind of reasonable conclusions about its efficacy. Buying stock based on coin flips can beat indexes short term too, that does not mean it is a better strategy or that it works over the long term.
      - kakacik 8d ago
        There must be some room for some anti-llm agent that can profit from specific behaviors of these models when deployed against actual markets. The idea that somebody here came up with idea that all professional algo traders didn't explore to the last penny a year if not more ahead of others is funny... but its not my money adding liquidity to the markets.
    - dakolli 8d ago
      Come to me when you have 500 trades and can beat Vangaurd's-VOO over a multi year time frame. Ill bet my entire networth and all future earnings for the rest of my life that your bot doesnt beat it. Your llm induced Dunning Kruger is going to get you in trouble one of these days I promise.
harrouet 8d ago
The issue at stake is that financial markets are order-2 chaotic system, i.e. acting on them can change their outcome. Put simply, if you open source your magic recipe, the behavioral change will affect the prices and you recipe will not work anymore.

rienbdj 8d ago

If you like building but have no capital you might release something like this that works.

ppalata 8d ago

The "blog" says that it's just holding cash or am I misunderstanding something? Judging by the "buying power" number, you allow it to use 4x leverage against the cash it has? That seems dangerous unless you are fine with losing 380k+.

csomar 8d ago
A lot of people don't realize that when a leveraged position goes against you (especially with a regulated broker), you get liquidated once your equity runs out, but you can still owe the shortfall on top of that. And the broker can come after your assets to collect it. So your real exposure here is 380K, not 98K. That being said, I think the parent AI is using paper money. Though who knows, this is the brave new world of AI.

NichoPaolucci 8d ago

Am I reading these logs correctly? You gave an agent 100k!? Very bold, hopefully it does turn things around. I had done a small experiment with 100$, but would be hesitant on more than that. I suppose if it's money you're willing to lose.

ludvigk 8d ago
The title is 'Paper trades' so it's very likely fictional money.
- Aperocky 8d ago
  Paper trades are more lenient afaik? You won't run into actual transaction problems particularly when market fluctuates by the milliseconds.

dominotw 8d ago

just seems to have trump tweets and war. surely those are nt the only market movers?

qurren 8d ago

Yeah, I agree with this. There is no point in open sourcing anything that works, in the finance world. I actually have a profitable trading agent, and hell no I will not open source it. It also looks nothing like this. For one this bot is ingesting a shitton of noisy sources that have almost no signal and using them naively.