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Predictions being hard is what makes them valuable as a check on insight and accuracy!
by randallsquared 14d ago
Predictions being hard is what makes them valuable as a check on insight and accuracy!
- emp17344 14d agoOk, but it also means we shouldn’t immediately discredit people who make incorrect short-term predictions, because those are really hard and no individual person consistently gets them right. You can worship at the altar of short-term prediction if you really want, but if you want to be logically consistent, that entails never taking anybody seriously ever.