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No projections/information/analysis. The statement from someone with a vested interest in this demand lasting an extended period of time (including the stateme

by mey 16d ago

No projections/information/analysis. The statement from someone with a vested interest in this demand lasting an extended period of time (including the statement that demand will continue past 2030).

thijson 16d ago
I remember in the 90's there was some sort of shortage reportedly due to fires. In the end it was found the shortage was due to collusion by the manufacturers. https://share.google/aimode/ewJpwCHUINOHzjBVg https://share.google/aimode/ewJpwCHUINOHzjBVg
- high_na_euv 16d ago
  But fortunely today we know that there is huge demand due to AI
  - Danox 16d ago
    Is it actual demand or is it just a future IOU? I will buy ram in the future keep the door open for me (OpenAI)? I think whatever happens it will be their last big payday because some of the companies that can do have the money and the capability are going to make plans to move away. From the Cartel.
- nubinetwork 16d ago
  It did happen in the early 2010s though https://www.crn.com/news/storage/231902425/thailand-floods-to-lead-to-30-percent-shortfall-of-hard-drive-supply https://www.crn.com/news/storage/231902425/thailand-floods-t...
- ChiperSoft 16d ago
  Oh its probably that again https://www.polygon.com/ram-manufacturers-sued-supply-price-fixing/ https://www.polygon.com/ram-manufacturers-sued-supply-price-...
  - xattt 16d ago
    Is the thing that’s different now that the colluders are banking on is that we are in a worldwide kleptocracy?
    - voidfunc 16d ago
      Yep
    - toast0 16d ago
      After the first two times, do they even need to collude? Can't they count on each other doing the profitable thing? Especially when they PR it: > Furthermore, focused investment in HBM is creating a virtuous cycle that improves profitability in the general-purpose memory market. As resources are diverted to HBM, the supply-demand balance for general DRAM is improving. January 5, 2026 - SK hynix market outlook. https://news.skhynix.com/en/2026-market-outlook-focus-on-the-hbm-led-memory-supercycle/ https://news.skhynix.com/en/2026-market-outlook-focus-on-the...
FLeXMurphy 16d ago
Assume the person knows something you don't.
- dgellow 16d ago
  Tell me when you’re looking for a new bridge, I have the best ones around
- mey 16d ago
  They know many things I don't. I can easily assume they have a specific reason to make a public statement that is within their interests. Without any reports/prospectus/booked contracts, it's just marketing/spin.
my-huge-pony 16d ago
In theory, shouldn't he say exactly the opposite thing if this was the goal? If demand is projected continue for a long time, this may encourage more competitors to enter this space, so supply will increase. On the other hand if everyone thought that the demand will end soon, nobody would invest in more capacity and shortage would last longer. I think this is just for short term shareholder profit.
- greycol 16d ago
  No because, some companies know they'll need ram, but they may have some leeway on timing (i.e. doing more to prolong the life of systems they'd typically replace). That means to guarantee ram they need to enter an agreement to buy the ram now. By setting the expectation that these prices continue or get worse companies that may have put off agreeing to these terms locking in prices based on demand rather than something closer to the cost of production. The agreements that these companies are being forced to make are upfront payment and then a top up to meet current market prices before delivery, there is no downside for these ram companies whether the price rises or falls (at worst they end up with supply that was already payed for by a bust company at a healthy margin and a glut in the market that would arrive anyway) Competitors are going to come online anyway because of the threat of chip embargoes against China that mean they are investing in production regardless of what the outside world is doing.
- bigbadfeline 16d ago
  > If demand is projected continue for a long time, this may encourage more competitors to enter this space, so supply will increase. There are no competitors that can muster the capital to make decent RAM... other than China but China is under a heavy sanctions and tariffs regime, when Apple mentioned using Chinese RAM to ease pricing they were quickly shushed by above. The current monopolists aren't building new capacity either or are simply pretending to do it. It's a planned monopoly market for reasons I can only speculate about.
  - apple4ever 15d ago
    But the longer it goes on, the more desirable it looks to new entrants.

by mey 16d ago

No projections/information/analysis. The statement from someone with a vested interest in this demand lasting an extended period of time (including the statement that demand will continue past 2030).

thijson 16d ago

I remember in the 90's there was some sort of shortage reportedly due to fires. In the end it was found the shortage was due to collusion by the manufacturers. https://share.google/aimode/ewJpwCHUINOHzjBVg https://share.google/aimode/ewJpwCHUINOHzjBVg

high_na_euv 16d ago
But fortunely today we know that there is huge demand due to AI
- Danox 16d ago
  Is it actual demand or is it just a future IOU? I will buy ram in the future keep the door open for me (OpenAI)? I think whatever happens it will be their last big payday because some of the companies that can do have the money and the capability are going to make plans to move away. From the Cartel.
nubinetwork 16d ago
It did happen in the early 2010s though https://www.crn.com/news/storage/231902425/thailand-floods-to-lead-to-30-percent-shortfall-of-hard-drive-supply https://www.crn.com/news/storage/231902425/thailand-floods-t...
ChiperSoft 16d ago
Oh its probably that again https://www.polygon.com/ram-manufacturers-sued-supply-price-fixing/ https://www.polygon.com/ram-manufacturers-sued-supply-price-...
- xattt 16d ago
  Is the thing that’s different now that the colluders are banking on is that we are in a worldwide kleptocracy?
  - voidfunc 16d ago
    Yep
  - toast0 16d ago
    After the first two times, do they even need to collude? Can't they count on each other doing the profitable thing? Especially when they PR it: > Furthermore, focused investment in HBM is creating a virtuous cycle that improves profitability in the general-purpose memory market. As resources are diverted to HBM, the supply-demand balance for general DRAM is improving. January 5, 2026 - SK hynix market outlook. https://news.skhynix.com/en/2026-market-outlook-focus-on-the-hbm-led-memory-supercycle/ https://news.skhynix.com/en/2026-market-outlook-focus-on-the...

FLeXMurphy 16d ago

Assume the person knows something you don't.

dgellow 16d ago
Tell me when you’re looking for a new bridge, I have the best ones around
mey 16d ago
They know many things I don't. I can easily assume they have a specific reason to make a public statement that is within their interests. Without any reports/prospectus/booked contracts, it's just marketing/spin.

my-huge-pony 16d ago

In theory, shouldn't he say exactly the opposite thing if this was the goal? If demand is projected continue for a long time, this may encourage more competitors to enter this space, so supply will increase. On the other hand if everyone thought that the demand will end soon, nobody would invest in more capacity and shortage would last longer. I think this is just for short term shareholder profit.

greycol 16d ago
No because, some companies know they'll need ram, but they may have some leeway on timing (i.e. doing more to prolong the life of systems they'd typically replace). That means to guarantee ram they need to enter an agreement to buy the ram now. By setting the expectation that these prices continue or get worse companies that may have put off agreeing to these terms locking in prices based on demand rather than something closer to the cost of production. The agreements that these companies are being forced to make are upfront payment and then a top up to meet current market prices before delivery, there is no downside for these ram companies whether the price rises or falls (at worst they end up with supply that was already payed for by a bust company at a healthy margin and a glut in the market that would arrive anyway) Competitors are going to come online anyway because of the threat of chip embargoes against China that mean they are investing in production regardless of what the outside world is doing.
bigbadfeline 16d ago
> If demand is projected continue for a long time, this may encourage more competitors to enter this space, so supply will increase. There are no competitors that can muster the capital to make decent RAM... other than China but China is under a heavy sanctions and tariffs regime, when Apple mentioned using Chinese RAM to ease pricing they were quickly shushed by above. The current monopolists aren't building new capacity either or are simply pretending to do it. It's a planned monopoly market for reasons I can only speculate about.
- apple4ever 15d ago
  But the longer it goes on, the more desirable it looks to new entrants.