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That's only if the AI companies continue their build outs. How many people actually use fable over opus? How far are we up the diminishing returns curve, and w
by kstenerud 22d ago
That's only if the AI companies continue their build outs.
How many people actually use fable over opus? How far are we up the diminishing returns curve, and will their customers even care?
- agentcoops 22d agoI don’t think the effects on the hardware market of open weight models triumphing has been reflected upon enough. It’s not clear that it will be less impactful if every enterprise decides to build for predominantly on-premise inference. In fact, before the question is ultimately decided, we’re probably heading towards a few years where hobbyists, enterprises and ‘hyper scalers’ are all competing for certain parts in common. Ram booked through 2027 sounds about right.
- Foobar8568 22d agoCompanies are avoid risks, and at this stage, sometimes, I feel that all cloud providers are just buying RAM that they would have bought anyway. Now it's ensure that no company will be willing to pay x digits just for cards. One of my clients is stuck in "we are doing things on premise but we are too cheap to spend a few 100k in cards but we don't want to go on clouds.
- rxyz 22d agoFable would have a much bigger userbase if Anthropic didn’t remove a zero data retention option because muh safeguards
- hedora 22d agoOr if it didn’t constantly kick people off fable. It won’t talk to me about gardening or computing. It will happily walk me through all the legal and illegal ways to systematically kill rodents. At least it is on-brand for something used by militaries that want to target civilians, I guess.
- tshaddox 22d agoThe stock market crash caused by AI companies halting their planned build outs may in practice cause RAM to remain unaffordable.
- andruby 22d agoHow does a stock market crash increase RAM prices (when RAM demand goes down)? Or would it affect people's purchasing power. I guess to some extent it does for people with significant investments in the stock market, but that's not a huge percentage of the people wanting to buy RAM or devices with RAM
- josephcooney 22d agoThe second and third and fourth-order exposure to AI spending is maybe bigger than you think. The blast radius if it pops could be quite large. Patrick Boyle had an interesting video discussing this recently https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTiYaWFP59Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTiYaWFP59Q
- andruby 22d agoSure, but how does it _increase_ RAM prices. It should decrease them because companies have less capital to buy RAM so demand decreases.
- etdznots 22d agoI have no opinion on what will happen, and know close to nothing about the memory industry but just to think out loud about how market turbulence could cause memory prices to increase: - Suppliers that memory companies depend on JIT are entangled and go under, halting production or stalling capacity increases - Downstream suppliers / distributors for not vertically integrated memory companies go under, and there is a shortage of finished product ready for consumer use even though there is an excess of memory chips - Memory producers / fabs can’t handle the depressed demand and go under / have to halt production, alleviating the demand glut for the surviving suppliers, who have less competition. Coordinating a cartel becomes easier when there are fewer suppliers and becomes more desirable now that everyone realizes it’s a matter of survival. There are also plenty of good reasons to think prices will go down if demand is depressed, but it does seem possible for prices to go up
- znpy 22d agoLast thing i heard was that large companies are starting to seriously spend on ai infrastructure (think nvidia clusters rather than tokens from openai or anthropic) to fine-tune and run custom models. This might become the driver for memory and chips demand in the near future. But i don’t know, of course, we’ll i guess.