6 ms·

One of the advantages of an autocracy: you don't need people's approval every 5 years so you can plan for decades. When you're right it is awesome. When you're

by arkh 27d ago

One of the advantages of an autocracy: you don't need people's approval every 5 years so you can plan for decades. When you're right it is awesome. When you're wrong, well that's what the army is for.

tonyhart7 27d ago
You can badmouth about China all you want but at least they are consistent where they stand while US flip flopping about invading middle east (like usual) or Greenland
- hvb2 27d ago
  I don't think he was badmouthing China at all. He's basically using different words to make the exact same point you're trying to make. When there's no real accountability, in a reasonable timeframe, it's much easier to plan long term. It's the same within companies. When the CEO assumes he'll be around for 5 years, should he shoot for the 10 year goal and reduce outcomes in the early years? Or does he just optimize for the next 5 years, thereby neglecting the long term goal?
  - tonyhart7 27d ago
    "When you're wrong, well that's what the army is for." he is implying that China bad action can be solved by PL red Army
    - fc417fc802 27d ago
      He's not implying, he stated it directly. If you think he's wrong then tell me - what do you believe would happen there in the event of widespread social unrest or grievances against the sitting government?
      - tonyhart7 27d ago
        They used to be, but after millions of people died, they realized that they had to do better. The rest is history.
- close04 27d ago
  GP isn't "badmouthing" China, that description applies to every non-democratic country, one leader with the power, not the people. Autocracies are great in the hands of a competent leader who plans the economy long term, and the grows of the country for the benefit of the country and society (look up "benevolent dictators"). They are not afraid of long term plans, or pleasing the population in the short term. He can break some eggs now to feed the whole country tomorrow. This is not something a democratic leader can afford. They live in 4-5 years cycles to please an electorate who looks for immediate benefits. In the hands of an incompetent and abusive leader autocracy is a nightmare that's supported only by fear and violence against the people. These are most dictatorships. Society suffers but can't do anything for fear of being steamrolled by the army. China is straddling a middle ground where the country grew by leaps and bounds, faster than anything else in history probably, but they also use a heavy hand to do this.
  - Hikikomori 27d ago
    Or you get trump, autocrat corruption without the planning.
    - ithkuil 27d ago
      You can get those in a democracy too! The real difference is how can you get rid of those
    - close04 27d ago
      > Or you get That "or" is described one paragraph down. It's the most common type of autocracy actually because it's the easiest to pull off. Incompetent and corrupt leader, access to an army, biggest temptation is for easy profit. Democracies are very susceptible to this type of leader in the short term. They start as populists and for a while it's easy to fool people into electing them. Until pockets and bellies start to stay empty. When popular support vanishes the army might step in to take that role and it turns into an autocracy. Successful planned economies need first and foremost a competent leader who's not tempted by short term personal gain but mainly long term gains for the country. They're rare as hen's teeth.
- villish 27d ago
  Did you forget about what happened with Hong Kong?
  - pepperoni_pizza 27d ago
    He's probably forbidden from speaking about it.
  - pjc50 27d ago
    The eradication of democracy in HK is extremely sad, but unfortunately it was only ever leased from China and the UK did not have a sound basis in international law for not handing it back.
    - Lio 27d ago
      > it was only ever leased from China Only part of Hong Kong, the New Territories, was leased from China. Hong Kong Island and Kowloon were ceded to the UK in perpetuality. The UK didn't have to give them back but it also didn't have a reliable fresh water supply for such a large city that didn't depend on mainland China.
      - throw4r53w4 26d ago
        Ceded at gunpoint. When might makes right, it makes sense China would try to get it back when strong enough.
        Lio 25d ago
        The same is true for Vladivostok but Xi seems pretty relaxed about that.
    - HexDecOctBin 26d ago
      Ah, so international law matters? In that case, surely China will follow the verdict of the South China Sea Arbitration?
lava_pidgeon 27d ago
That's selection bias. China was "lucky" to had the best strategy. But what about the dictatorships who stocked to the wrong strategy. Though it is still interesting to research about Industry politics. In Europe almost all economics looked trapped into the capitalism Vs socialism trap.
SiempreViernes 27d ago
The actual reality of how China works is much more complicated than this "select from a dropdown menu" system you are implying. For one thing it's made up of fairly autonomous provinces that all compete between each others, for another the actual strategy has been heavily relying on extensive local experimentation to find growth models that can be applied nationally.
- corimaith 27d ago
  Nah he's correct, local government compete on implementation details, not overall strategy that is monopolize by the central government. Which has the same pitfalls (-see zero-covid or the debt crisis owing to gdp targets)
  - whatever1 27d ago
    Also if any of the local governors / entrepreneurs cross a line they just disappear to focus on reading. Some of them might reappear after a decade having thoroughly understood the textbooks. For example Jack Ma reappeared after his successful re-education.
    - tonyhart7 26d ago
      China is the only country that can control their billionaire while US is the other way around
  - mono442 27d ago
    China doesn't have a debt crisis.
m4rtink 27d ago
It also makes feedback illegal, so corruption and bad decisions get unfixed, untill both not only eat any gains but make the whole thing collapse.
- tonyhart7 27d ago
  Yeah but China have death penalty for corruption while Trump literally selling subscription for faster tweet access
- accurrent 27d ago
  Its complicated... You can't function without feedback. Imagine you have a pothole, a 0 feedback society would tell you that the contractor the government selected is perfect and there are no pot holes in ba sing se. If you actually go to china you would find that roads are genuinely pothole-free. Obviously there are feedback channels. You can't run a country with zero feedback. China knows this and they monitor a lot of things. There are channels (like they have online petition platforms, 12345 hotline - organised demonstrations are not allowed). Theres also a whole industry around gathering metrics from citizen surveys and online studies. Every government program is measured carefully and methodically. Is it democratic in the western sense? no. Will you get killed for reporting a pothole or flaw? Absolutely not.
thaumasiotes 27d ago
> One of the advantages of an autocracy: you don't need people's approval every 5 years so you can plan for decades. This is a funny thing to say about a system known for its regular issuance of 5-year plans. They have festivals and everything.

by arkh 27d ago

tonyhart7 27d ago

You can badmouth about China all you want but at least they are consistent where they stand while US flip flopping about invading middle east (like usual) or Greenland

hvb2 27d ago
I don't think he was badmouthing China at all. He's basically using different words to make the exact same point you're trying to make. When there's no real accountability, in a reasonable timeframe, it's much easier to plan long term. It's the same within companies. When the CEO assumes he'll be around for 5 years, should he shoot for the 10 year goal and reduce outcomes in the early years? Or does he just optimize for the next 5 years, thereby neglecting the long term goal?
- tonyhart7 27d ago
  "When you're wrong, well that's what the army is for." he is implying that China bad action can be solved by PL red Army
  - fc417fc802 27d ago
    He's not implying, he stated it directly. If you think he's wrong then tell me - what do you believe would happen there in the event of widespread social unrest or grievances against the sitting government?
    - tonyhart7 27d ago
      They used to be, but after millions of people died, they realized that they had to do better. The rest is history.
close04 27d ago
GP isn't "badmouthing" China, that description applies to every non-democratic country, one leader with the power, not the people. Autocracies are great in the hands of a competent leader who plans the economy long term, and the grows of the country for the benefit of the country and society (look up "benevolent dictators"). They are not afraid of long term plans, or pleasing the population in the short term. He can break some eggs now to feed the whole country tomorrow. This is not something a democratic leader can afford. They live in 4-5 years cycles to please an electorate who looks for immediate benefits. In the hands of an incompetent and abusive leader autocracy is a nightmare that's supported only by fear and violence against the people. These are most dictatorships. Society suffers but can't do anything for fear of being steamrolled by the army. China is straddling a middle ground where the country grew by leaps and bounds, faster than anything else in history probably, but they also use a heavy hand to do this.
- Hikikomori 27d ago
  Or you get trump, autocrat corruption without the planning.
  - ithkuil 27d ago
    You can get those in a democracy too! The real difference is how can you get rid of those
  - close04 27d ago
    > Or you get That "or" is described one paragraph down. It's the most common type of autocracy actually because it's the easiest to pull off. Incompetent and corrupt leader, access to an army, biggest temptation is for easy profit. Democracies are very susceptible to this type of leader in the short term. They start as populists and for a while it's easy to fool people into electing them. Until pockets and bellies start to stay empty. When popular support vanishes the army might step in to take that role and it turns into an autocracy. Successful planned economies need first and foremost a competent leader who's not tempted by short term personal gain but mainly long term gains for the country. They're rare as hen's teeth.
villish 27d ago
Did you forget about what happened with Hong Kong?
- pepperoni_pizza 27d ago
  He's probably forbidden from speaking about it.
- pjc50 27d ago
  The eradication of democracy in HK is extremely sad, but unfortunately it was only ever leased from China and the UK did not have a sound basis in international law for not handing it back.
  - Lio 27d ago
    > it was only ever leased from China Only part of Hong Kong, the New Territories, was leased from China. Hong Kong Island and Kowloon were ceded to the UK in perpetuality. The UK didn't have to give them back but it also didn't have a reliable fresh water supply for such a large city that didn't depend on mainland China.
    - throw4r53w4 26d ago
      Ceded at gunpoint. When might makes right, it makes sense China would try to get it back when strong enough.
      - Lio 25d ago
        The same is true for Vladivostok but Xi seems pretty relaxed about that.
  - HexDecOctBin 26d ago
    Ah, so international law matters? In that case, surely China will follow the verdict of the South China Sea Arbitration?

lava_pidgeon 27d ago

That's selection bias. China was "lucky" to had the best strategy. But what about the dictatorships who stocked to the wrong strategy. Though it is still interesting to research about Industry politics. In Europe almost all economics looked trapped into the capitalism Vs socialism trap.

SiempreViernes 27d ago

The actual reality of how China works is much more complicated than this "select from a dropdown menu" system you are implying. For one thing it's made up of fairly autonomous provinces that all compete between each others, for another the actual strategy has been heavily relying on extensive local experimentation to find growth models that can be applied nationally.

corimaith 27d ago
Nah he's correct, local government compete on implementation details, not overall strategy that is monopolize by the central government. Which has the same pitfalls (-see zero-covid or the debt crisis owing to gdp targets)
- whatever1 27d ago
  Also if any of the local governors / entrepreneurs cross a line they just disappear to focus on reading. Some of them might reappear after a decade having thoroughly understood the textbooks. For example Jack Ma reappeared after his successful re-education.
  - tonyhart7 26d ago
    China is the only country that can control their billionaire while US is the other way around
- mono442 27d ago
  China doesn't have a debt crisis.

m4rtink 27d ago

It also makes feedback illegal, so corruption and bad decisions get unfixed, untill both not only eat any gains but make the whole thing collapse.

tonyhart7 27d ago
Yeah but China have death penalty for corruption while Trump literally selling subscription for faster tweet access
accurrent 27d ago
Its complicated... You can't function without feedback. Imagine you have a pothole, a 0 feedback society would tell you that the contractor the government selected is perfect and there are no pot holes in ba sing se. If you actually go to china you would find that roads are genuinely pothole-free. Obviously there are feedback channels. You can't run a country with zero feedback. China knows this and they monitor a lot of things. There are channels (like they have online petition platforms, 12345 hotline - organised demonstrations are not allowed). Theres also a whole industry around gathering metrics from citizen surveys and online studies. Every government program is measured carefully and methodically. Is it democratic in the western sense? no. Will you get killed for reporting a pothole or flaw? Absolutely not.

thaumasiotes 27d ago

> One of the advantages of an autocracy: you don't need people's approval every 5 years so you can plan for decades. This is a funny thing to say about a system known for its regular issuance of 5-year plans. They have festivals and everything.