8 ms·

Iran hit a uae ship today. For the ships that are transiting are shipping companies paying Iran to allow shipments? If it's in bitcoin then the payments would b

Iran hit a uae ship today. For the ships that are transiting are shipping companies paying Iran to allow shipments? If it's in bitcoin then the payments would be visible if you know/suspect the wallets ot amounts. Or are the attacks on ships more or less random?

kstenerud 1mo ago
Iran's goal is to become the superpower of the middle east. This has always involved getting the bomb, but now with Trump's gift of a war he can't win, they'll also take control of the strait of Hormuz. If you observe the wording of everything they've said, they are being consistent: acknowledge our right to decide who passes and who doesn't (via a toll) or have your ship attacked. Those are words used to express consistency in policy, and to position themselves as reliable overlords of the region.
- deleted 1mo ago
  [deleted]
- Noaidi 1mo ago
  > This has always involved getting the bomb This is absolutely 100% not true. Iran had a fatwa against obtaining nuclear weapon weapons. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatwa_against_nuclear_weapons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatwa_against_nuclear_weapons That is until the United States started bombing them
  - free652 1mo ago
    The same wiki prominently points out: Iranian politician Ali Motahari said the fatwa only forbids the use of a nuclear weapon, not its creation. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-705027 https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-705027 >Despite Iran's insistence that its nuclear activity is for peaceful purposes only, former Iranian MP Ali Motahari revealed on Sunday that Iran "from the very beginning" aimed to make a nuclear bomb, in an interview with the Iran Student Correspondents Association.
    - vixen99 1mo ago
      We should be aware that the Iranian regime exists in a environment that justifies lying in situations where they sense the need to do so. It should be admitted that they are not the only ones.
  - energy123 1mo ago
    Words vs actions+incentives
  - swat535 1mo ago
    Iranian here, Mojtaba can issue a new one and override the previous one. He hasn't done it yet, at least not publicly but he very well might. If you look at the moves he has been making, he is putting people in charge of IRGC who are bigger hardliners. The new commanders in charge are very pro war, for example Vahidi and Mohsen Rezaei. I think United States and Israel made a big mistake in their calculus, underestimating the number of supporters they have in Iran. I assume mostly because you only hear the voices of expats who are either Pahlavis or classic Liberals in the West. Easily 40% of population is in support of the Republic and for good reason. Decades of US trying to destroy Iran has solidified their position and the war of 2025 put the final nail in the coffin. The people here discussing the "Strait" are missing the forest for the trees.. Iran will control it, there may or not be alternative solutions but the biggest issue is that the entire region will be forever destabilized. At least until one side gives major concessions, even if US wanted to have an agreement, Israel wouldn't allow it. It's a bad situation for everyone.
- ericmay 1mo ago
  For Iran the long term result will be a playground without any children playing in it. Gulf oil exporters will move away from utilizing the Strait over the next few years due to this continued threat - what will it be next time? Give us more chocolate or we’ll close the Strait again! ? You offended our Dear Leader, Straight closed for 4 days! Nobody is going to tolerate that. So eventually we will wind up with a Strait in which primarily Iranian oil would pass, except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through while Gulf powers just use alternative means. It’s not necessarily the win that Iran or its supporters seem to think it is.
  - lefra 1mo ago
    Sure if they use strait closures the same way Trump uses tariffs, everyone will try to not use it. But if they just collect fees that are cheaper than alternatives, ships will keep on going through.
    - ericmay 1mo ago
      We would just blockade it then as we are now. Iran gets no money and doesn’t get to sell oil. They’ve already demonstrated that they use the Straight in the same way Trump uses tariffs. As you know, businesses don’t like uncertainty and it’s uncertain what whims or random “fees” or demands Iran will have in the future.
  - davidw 1mo ago
    Hopefully part of the long term effect is people accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels altogether.
  - testing22321 1mo ago
    > except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through How exactly will the US do that? They’ve been trying for months, and can’t because Iran have the literal high ground. It’s accepted that Short of a massive land invasion committing millions of US troops, they can’t control the strait.
deleted 1mo ago
[deleted]
ericmay 1mo ago
> For the ships that are transiting are shipping companies paying Iran to allow shipments? Ships aren’t transiting without American approval and if I recall the US said ships paying Iran were not permitted to utilize the Strait. But we also know the US has quietly been escorting some number of tankers out of the Strait over the last few months, unless they are Iranian, so there are likely ships that are transiting under American protection and they aren’t paying Iran.

kstenerud 1mo ago

Iran's goal is to become the superpower of the middle east. This has always involved getting the bomb, but now with Trump's gift of a war he can't win, they'll also take control of the strait of Hormuz. If you observe the wording of everything they've said, they are being consistent: acknowledge our right to decide who passes and who doesn't (via a toll) or have your ship attacked. Those are words used to express consistency in policy, and to position themselves as reliable overlords of the region.

deleted 1mo ago
[deleted]
Noaidi 1mo ago
> This has always involved getting the bomb This is absolutely 100% not true. Iran had a fatwa against obtaining nuclear weapon weapons. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatwa_against_nuclear_weapons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatwa_against_nuclear_weapons That is until the United States started bombing them
- free652 1mo ago
  The same wiki prominently points out: Iranian politician Ali Motahari said the fatwa only forbids the use of a nuclear weapon, not its creation. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-705027 https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-705027 >Despite Iran's insistence that its nuclear activity is for peaceful purposes only, former Iranian MP Ali Motahari revealed on Sunday that Iran "from the very beginning" aimed to make a nuclear bomb, in an interview with the Iran Student Correspondents Association.
  - vixen99 1mo ago
    We should be aware that the Iranian regime exists in a environment that justifies lying in situations where they sense the need to do so. It should be admitted that they are not the only ones.
- energy123 1mo ago
  Words vs actions+incentives
- swat535 1mo ago
  Iranian here, Mojtaba can issue a new one and override the previous one. He hasn't done it yet, at least not publicly but he very well might. If you look at the moves he has been making, he is putting people in charge of IRGC who are bigger hardliners. The new commanders in charge are very pro war, for example Vahidi and Mohsen Rezaei. I think United States and Israel made a big mistake in their calculus, underestimating the number of supporters they have in Iran. I assume mostly because you only hear the voices of expats who are either Pahlavis or classic Liberals in the West. Easily 40% of population is in support of the Republic and for good reason. Decades of US trying to destroy Iran has solidified their position and the war of 2025 put the final nail in the coffin. The people here discussing the "Strait" are missing the forest for the trees.. Iran will control it, there may or not be alternative solutions but the biggest issue is that the entire region will be forever destabilized. At least until one side gives major concessions, even if US wanted to have an agreement, Israel wouldn't allow it. It's a bad situation for everyone.
ericmay 1mo ago
For Iran the long term result will be a playground without any children playing in it. Gulf oil exporters will move away from utilizing the Strait over the next few years due to this continued threat - what will it be next time? Give us more chocolate or we’ll close the Strait again! ? You offended our Dear Leader, Straight closed for 4 days! Nobody is going to tolerate that. So eventually we will wind up with a Strait in which primarily Iranian oil would pass, except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through while Gulf powers just use alternative means. It’s not necessarily the win that Iran or its supporters seem to think it is.
- lefra 1mo ago
  Sure if they use strait closures the same way Trump uses tariffs, everyone will try to not use it. But if they just collect fees that are cheaper than alternatives, ships will keep on going through.
  - ericmay 1mo ago
    We would just blockade it then as we are now. Iran gets no money and doesn’t get to sell oil. They’ve already demonstrated that they use the Straight in the same way Trump uses tariffs. As you know, businesses don’t like uncertainty and it’s uncertain what whims or random “fees” or demands Iran will have in the future.
- davidw 1mo ago
  Hopefully part of the long term effect is people accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels altogether.
- testing22321 1mo ago
  > except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through How exactly will the US do that? They’ve been trying for months, and can’t because Iran have the literal high ground. It’s accepted that Short of a massive land invasion committing millions of US troops, they can’t control the strait.

deleted 1mo ago

[deleted]

ericmay 1mo ago

> For the ships that are transiting are shipping companies paying Iran to allow shipments? Ships aren’t transiting without American approval and if I recall the US said ships paying Iran were not permitted to utilize the Strait. But we also know the US has quietly been escorting some number of tankers out of the Strait over the last few months, unless they are Iranian, so there are likely ships that are transiting under American protection and they aren’t paying Iran.