7 ms·

I do wish Elon would focus more on getting to Mars.

MulliMulli 1mo ago
I think it's already save enough. He should take the risk to be the first person.
ActorNightly 1mo ago
There is basically zero chance of that happening. Not that this is impossible to do, but under Elons leadership it will never happen. Intelligence is non separable, you can't be smart in one area and be idiotic in another - if you are good at logical thinking, truth seeking, and problem solving this applies to everything you do in life. And its pretty evident with Starship it has been a collosal failure so far. They have just barely gotten it to the same functionality as the Falcon, with engines that are equivalent of putting a turbo+nitrous system on a base spec Toyota Corolla. They still have to figure out not only staying in orbit without issues to refuel, but also multiple restart attempts. With finances, it has been shown that Falcon launches are heavily subsidized, which is why they are cheap, and in reality, there is a lot of money spent fixing the vehicles for next launhch. Space X has no experience in multiple launches of the same vehicle without work. On Mars, you are not going to have a full factory with full engineering staff to basically fix up the Starship for next takeoff. All of this is compounded by the talent pool of people still willing to work for Elon, with ever sinking stock price. There is enough inertia there to keep the Falcon program going, but the mindset of everyone involved in Starship is by far not conducive to make Mars happen.
- tredre3 1mo ago
  > Intelligence is non separable, you can't be smart in one area and be idiotic in another This is patently false. > if you are good at logical thinking, truth seeking, and problem solving this applies to everything you do in life. That's how we STEM people like to see ourselves, yes. But that's rarely how it plays out. First, ego gets in the way. When someone thinks they understand something (even if it's way outside their field of expertise), they are much less likely to do the truth seeking part. So they stick to erroneous beliefs which results in them making idiotic claims. Then you have the fact that STEM people struggle with nuance. They prefer cold simple logic. Which results in views on nuanced topics such as human behavior that are so appalling it's become a meme at this point. Then you have the classic counter example of geniuses going off the deep end with the Nobel disease.
  - ActorNightly 1mo ago
    Lol think about what you are saying. You are basically demonstrating the non-intelligent people. If someone ego gets in the way of understanding something, or they don't pay attention to counter evidence to what they believe in, that is an inherent process that does not represent truth seeking, therefore they are not intelligent. I think you are confusing intelligence with ability to recall stuff. Memorizing stuff isn't intelligence. We have LLMs for that now. Intelligence is the ability to accurately simulate reality with a high degree of accuracy in your head, which includes understanding where the gaps in knowledge are. Anything other then that is not intelligence. And this is something so fundamental that it can't be taught. You are either born with ability to prioritize that over empotions, or you aren't.
    - defrost 1mo ago
      > Intelligence is the ability to accurately simulate reality with a high degree of accuracy in your head Mathematicians (eg: those that first conceived of non Euclidean geometries) aren't intelligent in your opinion? Everything an intelligent person thinks must conform to some common hallucination or perception called "reality"? Wowsers.

I think it's already save enough. He should take the risk to be the first person.

There is basically zero chance of that happening. Not that this is impossible to do, but under Elons leadership it will never happen. Intelligence is non separable, you can't be smart in one area and be idiotic in another - if you are good at logical thinking, truth seeking, and problem solving this applies to everything you do in life. And its pretty evident with Starship it has been a collosal failure so far. They have just barely gotten it to the same functionality as the Falcon, with engines that are equivalent of putting a turbo+nitrous system on a base spec Toyota Corolla. They still have to figure out not only staying in orbit without issues to refuel, but also multiple restart attempts. With finances, it has been shown that Falcon launches are heavily subsidized, which is why they are cheap, and in reality, there is a lot of money spent fixing the vehicles for next launhch. Space X has no experience in multiple launches of the same vehicle without work. On Mars, you are not going to have a full factory with full engineering staff to basically fix up the Starship for next takeoff. All of this is compounded by the talent pool of people still willing to work for Elon, with ever sinking stock price. There is enough inertia there to keep the Falcon program going, but the mindset of everyone involved in Starship is by far not conducive to make Mars happen.

tredre3 1mo ago
> Intelligence is non separable, you can't be smart in one area and be idiotic in another This is patently false. > if you are good at logical thinking, truth seeking, and problem solving this applies to everything you do in life. That's how we STEM people like to see ourselves, yes. But that's rarely how it plays out. First, ego gets in the way. When someone thinks they understand something (even if it's way outside their field of expertise), they are much less likely to do the truth seeking part. So they stick to erroneous beliefs which results in them making idiotic claims. Then you have the fact that STEM people struggle with nuance. They prefer cold simple logic. Which results in views on nuanced topics such as human behavior that are so appalling it's become a meme at this point. Then you have the classic counter example of geniuses going off the deep end with the Nobel disease.
- ActorNightly 1mo ago
  Lol think about what you are saying. You are basically demonstrating the non-intelligent people. If someone ego gets in the way of understanding something, or they don't pay attention to counter evidence to what they believe in, that is an inherent process that does not represent truth seeking, therefore they are not intelligent. I think you are confusing intelligence with ability to recall stuff. Memorizing stuff isn't intelligence. We have LLMs for that now. Intelligence is the ability to accurately simulate reality with a high degree of accuracy in your head, which includes understanding where the gaps in knowledge are. Anything other then that is not intelligence. And this is something so fundamental that it can't be taught. You are either born with ability to prioritize that over empotions, or you aren't.
  - defrost 1mo ago
    > Intelligence is the ability to accurately simulate reality with a high degree of accuracy in your head Mathematicians (eg: those that first conceived of non Euclidean geometries) aren't intelligent in your opinion? Everything an intelligent person thinks must conform to some common hallucination or perception called "reality"? Wowsers.