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Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes
- relug 1mo agointeresting why usa wants to keep escalating, muat be some strat behind it maybe to induce strategical global recession or try and slow down china or something else
- DANmode 1mo agoSolar-and-nuclear based energy sovereignty, is the most charitable interpretation I’ve developed.
- toomuchtodo 1mo agoThe only way for the US to win is to concede and acquiesce control of the Strait to Iran, but the administration has too much pride and hubris so they’ll keep bullying until stopped. It’s not a complex geopolitical game, it’s saving face.
- toomuchtodo 1mo agoTrump's Iran dilemma: He's stuck in war with no exit in sight - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49200602 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49200602 - August 2026
- wasfgwp 1mo agoI think returning (to some extent) to the status quo is possible but only if Trump’s admin is replaced or at least neutered. Then both Iran and US can make a deal without losing face and expect than US won’t break its word the next day.
- MrDrone 1mo agoI think it's giving more credit than is due to assume there's a strategy. At this stage, it seems pretty clear that a number of people are using insider knowledge of these negotiations to enrich themselves. To me this is representative of a broader pattern of looting American institutions pervasive in this administration. > https://liccardo.house.gov/media/in-the-news/house-dem-sam-liccardo-probes-suspicious-oil-trades-during-iran-war https://liccardo.house.gov/media/in-the-news/house-dem-sam-l... At the same time, we've purged our military leadership of anyone who said "no" to Trump's plans of antagonizing Iran. A conflict many military thinkers consider un-winnable. > https://www.duckworth.senate.gov/news/in-the-news/why-trumps-pattern-of-purging-our-highest-performing-military-officers-is-dangerous https://www.duckworth.senate.gov/news/in-the-news/why-trumps... Iran, having spent decades preparing for this type of situation, has the clear advantage and is pressing it hard. Shy of boots on the ground (itself an incredibly bloody and possibly futile avenue) there doesn't seem to be anyway to overcome their hold on the Strait. > https://studies.aljazeera.net/en/analyses/war-no-one-can-win-why-shattering-iranian-regime-strategic-miscalculation https://studies.aljazeera.net/en/analyses/war-no-one-can-win... There is no secret strategy. The country is led by inept people who believe might makes right, and take every opportunity to enrich themselves. People are bending over backwards to make meaning of this blatant corruption and it is one way we're enabling the destruction of America.
- thraway3837 1mo agoMilitary–industrial complex and Israel. The Iraq war lasted nearly a decade. Afghanistan 2 decades. And the US accomplished nothing. They made things worse, I don't need to go into details because that is an easy lookup. That's ultimately the purpose of this war. Israel wants us to fight Iran because "Iran was close to making a nuke", which is an excuse they have been using for nearly 30 years. Have you seen how much money AIPAC has in US politicians' pockets? Nearly every other office in congress has an Israel flag on their door. Poured $36M (Million) into Haley Stevens. A complete nincompoop and incompetent person, but she would have further supported Israel's agenda. The US is a destructive war machine beast that needs to be constantly fed. Unfortunately, we are going to see tons of US armed forces personnel and Iranians die in a needless, wasteful, illegal war.
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- whosdatis 1mo ago"They made things worse.." ..it almost as if you think they came there to make things better
- wasfgwp 1mo ago> Military–industrial complex and Israel. Or general stupidity and incompetence. Trump and his cabinet of clowns thought they could score a big win (I suppose like Russia back in 2022). Now they are stuck in shit and have no clue how to get out. If the military industrial complex was in control of the US gov. they would stop President Cheeto from antagonizing the rest of NATO and therefore reducing the competitiveness of US arms manufacturers. You are of course right about Israel Netanyahu is playing cheeto like a fiddle..
- pseudohadamard 1mo agoYup, it's a dementia patient floundering around, supported by a coterie of nutters and incompetents. You know it's bad when the Iranian leadership is the least crazy party in all this.
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- jdlshore 1mo agoIt’s Trump, not the USA, and he seems to be ruled by passions rather than logic. Mostly, his goals seem to be to seek wealth and adoration by any means necessary. Now that he’s in it, there’s no way out, and particularly no way out that doesn’t make him look like an even bigger fool. So he’ll stay in it until things get so bad he has no other choice. But that won’t stop him from lying about progress and enriching himself through the resultant stock market swings.
- krapp 1mo agoThe American right has wanted war in Iran for decades, it was added to the "Axis of Evil" for that reason. Plenty of Americans support war with Iran in concept at least. It's true that Trump is deranged and this war is driven partly by ego and partly by the Christian dominionist Department of War's slavish obedience to Israel and fetish for holy war. But let's be real - gross negligence and incompetence aside war with Iran was always going to happen, somehow, under some pretext.
- aprilthird2021 1mo ago> But let's be real - gross negligence and incompetence aside war with Iran was always going to happen, somehow, under some pretext. And they prepared for it for a long time. And that preparation has paid off for them. We seem to not have prepared for it in the same way.
- krapp 1mo agoI suppose when you live under the constant threat of American imperialism, and when the US has already ginned up a revolution in your country, you have to be prepared. And I suppose when you're the world's last superpower you start believing your own hype and assume you're invincible.
- wasfgwp 1mo agoWell no. Iran is not in a great state and is not doing that well. They are just willing to sacrifice and suffer through several magnitudes more than US ever could.
- superze 1mo agoBecause politicians rape kids and because the world has been hijackers by Nazi Israel.
- exabrial 1mo agoEveryone says Israel, which is at least partly true, but the other reason is Ukraine. Iran is a major partner for Russia.
- wasfgwp 1mo agoYes, Trump certainly did this to help Ukraine. Despite doing as much as he can to minimize US support for Ukraine since he came to office… Also that implies he (or his cabinet) is capable of understanding basic cause and effect and thinking more than one step ahead and there is absolutely zero evidence that’s the case.
- megamike 1mo agoquestion: When does all this hit the fan? Been reading for months that gas will rise to astronomical prices. When? answer: it depends heavily on China. If China were to jump into the global oil market with both feet, prices would shoot upwards. To date they have largely stayed on the sidelines.They have huge amounts of oil in storage. Their behavior so far has been the big surprise. They have been providing a pressure relief valve for the entire globe.
- cyanydeez 1mo agowhen the rich people stop talking to their LLMs and realize their hand servants have access to guns.
- fragmede 1mo agoI wouldn't call what they're doing "staying on the sidelines". It's a very big thing they're doing to stop global oil prices from shooting up by using up their stockpile for as long as they can. As to why, it's just the... I dunno, Chinese? thing to do. Quietly fix someone else's fuckup and not seek glory. Whatever you want to attribute it to, it's an ethos and makes total sense to some, because things are gonna get fuuuuuucked if gas prices go to the moon.
- toomuchtodo 1mo agoChina’s economy depends on exporting to the world, as it will never have enough domestic demand to meet domestic supply. If the global economy crashes from an oil price shock, China goes down with it.
- mrtesthah 1mo agoDo it, please. The world can't afford to keep burning oil.
- HDBaseT 1mo agoWe can't afford to not keep burning oil.
- AngryData 1mo agoWe could if didn't keep pissing our money away and built an entire fleet of nuclear reactors.
- toomuchtodo 1mo agoWe can. It’ll be hard, but sometimes you gotta buck up and do hard things instead of being lazy. We won’t do it unless we’re forced to, business as usual is simply too cozy for decision makers, politically, in capital markets, and at multinationals making decisions. Wealthy and powerful people want to remain wealthy and powerful, a tale as old as time. 2-3C means potentially >2-4 billion excess deaths over the next ~50 years from climate change. As long as global oil supply chains are low volatility and low risk, we continue on that path. Ukraine has disabled 30-40% of Russia’s refinery capacity almost entirely with drones, for example. TLDR it is not bad for the global oil supply chain to experience pain, it’s the primary factor in accelerating electrification and decarbonization. https://actuaries.org.uk/media/ni4erlna/planetary-solvency.pdf https://actuaries.org.uk/media/ni4erlna/planetary-solvency.p... (page 32 risk impact matrix) https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ukraines-Drone-Campaign-Drives-Russian-Oil-Refining-to-24-Year-Low.html https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ukraines-...
- OneDeuxTriSeiGo 1mo agoThat's not really the argument they are making I believe. The issue is if you suddenly cut back oil countries pivot to bringing coal back because it's the fastest to scale up. Some places may scale up natural gas but unless a regional already has a lot of LNG infrastructure in place, a sudden drop in oil means bringing back coal. And coal is of course far worse than oil. Gradual sustained economic pressure will push a move to cleaner alternatives but a sudden shock leaves countries with exactly one option: bring back coal so the lights and heat/AC stay on.