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This is the most important part most people don't get: > And what would 3 °C mean for Germany? > FB: In summer, meteorological records could reach up to 50 °C

This is the most important part most people don't get: > And what would 3 °C mean for Germany? > FB: In summer, meteorological records could reach up to 50 °C. Three degrees of global warming does not mean hot days will just be 3 or 4 degrees hotter. It could mean up to 10 degrees hotter. We would also face much longer droughts. 3°C warming implies summer days can get 10°C hotter. This is nightmare scenario.

rolph 2mo ago
this also means thermal turbulence which means breakup of flow, and that means failure of distribution, leading to localized torrid spots, that translates to heat dome regions of more than 10°C hotter.
- foxglacier 2mo ago
  Are you saying those researchers got their upper bound too low? You should inform them of their mistake.
foxglacier 2mo ago
[flagged]
- homosapien97 2mo ago
  Are you being intentionally obtuse? In normal language the quoted text means there is a meaningful chance of record temperatures 10 degrees hotter than current records.
  - foxglacier 2mo ago
    [flagged]
  - ffsm8 2mo ago
    It is weasel language which actually says nothing in order to not be disprovable The reason we see it all the time is because we've gotten used to people trying to convince us that some unlikely scenario will take place to increase urgency. While global warming is happening, the quoted sentence should be raising your "this is someone trying to convince me of something that has a neglectable likelihood of becoming reality"-alarm But sure, it could be that we may get a significant heat up within the next 20 years. Regardless of that, if you're living in Germany you probably should get an AC, as even if that doesn't manifest, things can already get too warm
- goatlover 2mo ago
  It's a temperature range and percent likelihood. The warmer the planet, the greater the odds of experiencing these sorts of conditions.
dataflow 2mo ago
> This is the most important part most people don't get I wouldn't say "people don't get" it when it's not well-communicated. When the headline always says 2-3 degrees, of course people are going to shrug.
- orwin 2mo ago
  It was always explained that way to me though. the "Our house is burning, and we are looking away" speech was like 20 years ago and it was pretty clear then than average increase in temps mostly mean higher maximums and minimums. Nowadays, people who never did anything to consume less (and made fun of people who stopped taking the plane) can't hide behind the "we didn't know" because everybody knew, so they hide behind the "it was not predicted to be as bad" and other "the scientists explained that poorly", but we know what's up, even when they lie to themselves.
  - spwa4 2mo ago
    What do you mean? Both Europe and America moved industrial production to China (which was an explicit choice/policy) which as a side effect radically increased the amount of coal used to power industrial production, BUT lets Europeans and Americans both pay less (ie. make workers poorer) AND lets them claim innocence for CO2 increases, while in fact increasing their CO2 use indirectly.
    - card_zero 2mo ago
      Do you think that if China had isolated itself and refused all trade, it would have tried to avoid industry and emissions? Do you think that China is controlled by its customers, making it a passive bystander in its own emissions, the agency and blame for which thus belongs to the customers? Do you think that individuals who deliberately choose to emit less exist in significant numbers in China, or in the world, or ever might do?
aaron695 2mo ago
[dead]
gmuslera 2mo ago
That 3°C is about the yearly average of global temperatures, from deserts to poles, night and day, all year round, and maintained for several years. That is not weather, but it’s more like system energy. Now, some regions get more average heating than others, so in that is not even, and then there is the weather, what you feel day to day. And right now we are already getting extreme heatwaves and other extreme weather events like flooding rains and hurricanes in zones where they were not usual. Those will increase in frequency and intensity, and I would not be surprised if there are peaks of temperature beyond 55°C, even before 2050, in industrialized countries
taegee 2mo ago
This June in Germany was on average 3 °C hotter than usual. That should give an idea.
- nicbou 2mo ago
  For those missing context: we beat all-time heat records with ~42ºC, and it was quite difficult to manage for 3 days with our current infrastructure.
sleight42 2mo ago
For us Imperialists, 10C is 50F. We would, quite literally, be cooked. That'd leave us with summers around 140-150F.
- antisthenes 2mo ago
  > For us Imperialists, 10C is 50F. That's nowhere near close to correct.
- benhurmarcel 2mo ago
  No, it’s 18°F. This is a temperature difference, not an absolute temperature, the conversion isn’t the same.
  - sleight42 2mo ago
    Yep. I must've been in a weird headspace when I wrote that. You are correct, sir.

rolph 2mo ago

this also means thermal turbulence which means breakup of flow, and that means failure of distribution, leading to localized torrid spots, that translates to heat dome regions of more than 10°C hotter.

foxglacier 2mo ago
Are you saying those researchers got their upper bound too low? You should inform them of their mistake.

foxglacier 2mo ago

[flagged]

homosapien97 2mo ago
Are you being intentionally obtuse? In normal language the quoted text means there is a meaningful chance of record temperatures 10 degrees hotter than current records.
- foxglacier 2mo ago
  [flagged]
- ffsm8 2mo ago
  It is weasel language which actually says nothing in order to not be disprovable The reason we see it all the time is because we've gotten used to people trying to convince us that some unlikely scenario will take place to increase urgency. While global warming is happening, the quoted sentence should be raising your "this is someone trying to convince me of something that has a neglectable likelihood of becoming reality"-alarm But sure, it could be that we may get a significant heat up within the next 20 years. Regardless of that, if you're living in Germany you probably should get an AC, as even if that doesn't manifest, things can already get too warm
goatlover 2mo ago
It's a temperature range and percent likelihood. The warmer the planet, the greater the odds of experiencing these sorts of conditions.

dataflow 2mo ago

> This is the most important part most people don't get I wouldn't say "people don't get" it when it's not well-communicated. When the headline always says 2-3 degrees, of course people are going to shrug.

orwin 2mo ago
It was always explained that way to me though. the "Our house is burning, and we are looking away" speech was like 20 years ago and it was pretty clear then than average increase in temps mostly mean higher maximums and minimums. Nowadays, people who never did anything to consume less (and made fun of people who stopped taking the plane) can't hide behind the "we didn't know" because everybody knew, so they hide behind the "it was not predicted to be as bad" and other "the scientists explained that poorly", but we know what's up, even when they lie to themselves.
- spwa4 2mo ago
  What do you mean? Both Europe and America moved industrial production to China (which was an explicit choice/policy) which as a side effect radically increased the amount of coal used to power industrial production, BUT lets Europeans and Americans both pay less (ie. make workers poorer) AND lets them claim innocence for CO2 increases, while in fact increasing their CO2 use indirectly.
  - card_zero 2mo ago
    Do you think that if China had isolated itself and refused all trade, it would have tried to avoid industry and emissions? Do you think that China is controlled by its customers, making it a passive bystander in its own emissions, the agency and blame for which thus belongs to the customers? Do you think that individuals who deliberately choose to emit less exist in significant numbers in China, or in the world, or ever might do?

aaron695 2mo ago

[dead]

gmuslera 2mo ago

That 3°C is about the yearly average of global temperatures, from deserts to poles, night and day, all year round, and maintained for several years. That is not weather, but it’s more like system energy. Now, some regions get more average heating than others, so in that is not even, and then there is the weather, what you feel day to day. And right now we are already getting extreme heatwaves and other extreme weather events like flooding rains and hurricanes in zones where they were not usual. Those will increase in frequency and intensity, and I would not be surprised if there are peaks of temperature beyond 55°C, even before 2050, in industrialized countries

taegee 2mo ago

This June in Germany was on average 3 °C hotter than usual. That should give an idea.

nicbou 2mo ago
For those missing context: we beat all-time heat records with ~42ºC, and it was quite difficult to manage for 3 days with our current infrastructure.

sleight42 2mo ago

For us Imperialists, 10C is 50F. We would, quite literally, be cooked. That'd leave us with summers around 140-150F.

antisthenes 2mo ago
> For us Imperialists, 10C is 50F. That's nowhere near close to correct.
benhurmarcel 2mo ago
No, it’s 18°F. This is a temperature difference, not an absolute temperature, the conversion isn’t the same.
- sleight42 2mo ago
  Yep. I must've been in a weird headspace when I wrote that. You are correct, sir.