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Yes 65B ARR that Anthropic has is clear indication there is no path to revenue.
by qaq 3mo ago
Yes 65B ARR that Anthropic has is clear indication there is no path to revenue.
- mrbungie 3mo agoHow much money does that revenue cost though? If I had to steel-man GPs argument I'd ask for profits rather than revenues.
- qaq 3mo agoWe will see once they go public Dario did claim profit margin on inference is 40% if memory serves me right
- mrbungie 3mo agoThat's convenient accounting. The reality is that they can't stop training since they risk losing customers if they do so. So they shouldn't factor it out of profitability analysis.
- qaq 3mo agoA lot of factors there we will see how it plays out.
- overgard 3mo agoYes Dario is well known for his honesty
- qaq 3mo agohence the bit about us learning the actual state of things once they are a public company.
- Insanity 3mo agoSorry, I should have said "profit path", good catch! They have revenue, but their cost scales with revenue and they're losing more than they are making. See: https://www.wheresyoured.at/brokenomics/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/brokenomics/ for an interesting write-up on the economics of AI.
- qaq 3mo agoIf people are sure they can always short NVIDIA
- brookst 3mo agoTheir costs do not scale linearly with revenue. Inference is expensive, but it's a variable cost. Anthropic's overall costs include massive fixed costs in training, which are the same regardless of usage. It's easy to falsify the claim with a simple experiment: imagine they had no customer at all, $0 in revenue. Their costs would still be massive. If the claim were true, $0 revenue should mean $0 costs, right?