5 ms·

well I see more problematic the people actually doing the Iran attacks and murder of heads of state. Betting on those is distasteful, but doing those things is

well I see more problematic the people actually doing the Iran attacks and murder of heads of state. Betting on those is distasteful, but doing those things is where the damage lies.

deleted 4mo ago
[deleted]
Barrin92 4mo ago
the entire point of the argument is that they're the same people. Military bets appear to have significantly higher rates of insider trading than baseline[1], which implies two things, both catastrophic. One is that the markets leak classified information (which is the entire point of the market and it should be a national security no brainer to close it for that reason alone) but the even worse scenario is causality in the other direction, that a bet leads someone to take a military decision. [1]https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/30/polymarket-s-military-markets-show-signs-of-insider-edge-report-suggests https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/30/polymarket-s-mil...
- jMyles 4mo ago
  > One is that the markets leak classified information (which is the entire point of the market and it should be a national security no brainer to close it for that reason alone) It's not at all obvious that leaks of classified information are per se detrimental to _actual_ national security.
gchamonlive 4mo ago
It's not because specifically with these markets there is an amplification effect where the one doing the bet creates incentives for what it's betting in favor or against to materialize in the world. In other words the money spent on bets that involve killing directly foments more killing.
pjc50 4mo ago
Military insiders can also buy oil futures...
dzhiurgis 4mo ago
[flagged]
- hackyhacky 4mo ago
  Ali Khamenei was recently murdered, at a price tag of several tens of billions of dollars, so far. His more radical son now occupies his former position. As a result, is the world a better place?
  - dzhiurgis 4mo ago
    [flagged]
    - defrost 4mo ago
      Maybe drop the obviously bad faith loaded responses.
- tsimionescu 4mo ago
  That they are virtually always replaced with other mass-murdering dictators, usually after a period of even worse mass murder known as a civil war. All at the low low cost of some billions of dollars taken away from useful work.
- chadgpt3 4mo ago
  Ask yourself what's wrong with Iran knocking out Donald Trump or Joe Biden? Or is it only America that gets to knock out other countries' dictators?

well I see more problematic the people actually doing the Iran attacks and murder of heads of state. Betting on those is distasteful, but doing those things is where the damage lies.

deleted 4mo ago

[deleted]

Barrin92 4mo ago

the entire point of the argument is that they're the same people. Military bets appear to have significantly higher rates of insider trading than baseline[1], which implies two things, both catastrophic. One is that the markets leak classified information (which is the entire point of the market and it should be a national security no brainer to close it for that reason alone) but the even worse scenario is causality in the other direction, that a bet leads someone to take a military decision. [1]https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/30/polymarket-s-military-markets-show-signs-of-insider-edge-report-suggests https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/30/polymarket-s-mil...

jMyles 4mo ago
> One is that the markets leak classified information (which is the entire point of the market and it should be a national security no brainer to close it for that reason alone) It's not at all obvious that leaks of classified information are per se detrimental to _actual_ national security.

gchamonlive 4mo ago

It's not because specifically with these markets there is an amplification effect where the one doing the bet creates incentives for what it's betting in favor or against to materialize in the world. In other words the money spent on bets that involve killing directly foments more killing.

pjc50 4mo ago

Military insiders can also buy oil futures...

dzhiurgis 4mo ago

[flagged]

hackyhacky 4mo ago
Ali Khamenei was recently murdered, at a price tag of several tens of billions of dollars, so far. His more radical son now occupies his former position. As a result, is the world a better place?
- dzhiurgis 4mo ago
  [flagged]
  - defrost 4mo ago
    Maybe drop the obviously bad faith loaded responses.
tsimionescu 4mo ago
That they are virtually always replaced with other mass-murdering dictators, usually after a period of even worse mass murder known as a civil war. All at the low low cost of some billions of dollars taken away from useful work.
chadgpt3 4mo ago
Ask yourself what's wrong with Iran knocking out Donald Trump or Joe Biden? Or is it only America that gets to knock out other countries' dictators?