5 ms·

Have we colonized Mars yet? Asking for a friend.

Nevermark 4mo ago
I don't understand this thinking at all. I share all the disillusionment and cynicism about Musk, shared here by others. But he has also done amazing things. When someone declares they are going to create a Martian colony, something literally "out of this world", and against all odds makes unbelievable progress for years, including re-usable rockets that return and land vertically, more efficient powerful engines, and fast operational turnarounds, while making orbital travel mundane, hanging a criticism of schedules on the weak hook of "yet" is myopic.
- threethirtytwo 4mo ago
  People don’t look at the complexity of a human character. They take the easiest extreme and run with it. I was on another HN thread where practically everyone was calling Elon a psychopath. If you think objectively Elon is not a psychopath.
  - sumeno 4mo ago
    He has a higher body count than any serial killer who has ever lived with DOGE alone. He may or may not be clinically diagnosable, but he's a monster either way
    - ben_w 4mo ago
      While I share your opinion on his character, the first part of what you say is also true for almost everyone who wielded the kinds and scales power that was given to him via DOGE: Every battleship is a hospital not built, etc.
      - sumeno 4mo ago
        There's a big difference between leaders making carefully considered decisions that have life and death consequences and what doge did.
        ben_w 4mo ago
        Sure, this is why I opened the way I did. I agree Musk's a wrong 'un.
      - sjsdaiuasgdia 4mo ago
        This is a false equivalency, and it minimizes the carelessness and maliciousness of how DOGE operated.
      - aeternum 4mo ago
        > Every battleship is a hospital not built It's sad that this is believed when it's most often the opposite. Especially in this case we have a literal historical example. You'll never guess what Henry Kaiser built before creating Kaiser, the largest set of hospitals in CA.
        ben_w 4mo ago
        I can't imagine why you think that's a good example. The money spent on the ships* could not be double-spent on hospitals. The workers whose manual labour was dedicated to those later ships could not be simultaneously dedicated to more hospitals. The crew of a battleship cannot be simultaneously working in a hospital, the maintenance teams repairing it cannot be simultaneously repairing a hospital. Every resource-management game demonstrates this principle, even if they're all gross simplifications. * Wikipedia says Kaiser's ships were cargo and transport, not battleships, which means they had the potential to be a net positive on the economy. This is better than a battleship, because domestic military gear can't be a net positive: the point is to keep matériel and personnel around to deter enemies, and only use them for training and when enemies aren't deterred.
        aeternum 4mo ago
        This could be true if labor were ever the bottleneck in construction projects. It almost never is.
  - Angostura 4mo ago
    You’re right. Sociopath is probably a better fit.
    - threethirtytwo 4mo ago
      [flagged]
      - the_gastropod 4mo ago
        ... Did you just suggest gp is "worse than Hitler" for suggesting Elon Musk, a man who's very publicly called empathy a "fundamental weakness" and "threat to Western Civilization", a sociopath? And you went on to compare the powerless women tried for witchcraft to the richest man in the history of the planet? Please go touch grass, my dude.
        threethirtytwo 4mo ago
        I suggested he's not in touch with reality when he accuses someone of being a sociopath who is clearly not. I compared him to the MOB that burned those women. That's the main comparison. You're the same because you and him would put elon to the slaughter because you're mob mentality is as violent as hitler. You need to get in touch with reality.
        red-iron-pine 4mo ago
        don't forget the literal, repeated roman salutes comparisons to nazi leaders may be apt, because he is a business leader, and a nazi
      - sjsdaiuasgdia 4mo ago
        > Here's a test: Given the opportunity to kill Elon, you probably would. Given that you think Elon is a sociopath or evil incarnate. I'm generally against the death penalty. I'd be fine with just stripping him of his wealth and locking him in prison for the rest of his life. He doesn't need to die, but it would be good to minimize/eliminate his influence on the world.
- bruce511 4mo ago
  There will never be a colony on Mars. Not in the way we think about "colonies". For starters it's too cold, too dry, atmosphere is too thin, and there's no reasonably sustainable power source. But all of that is irrelevant because there's no magnetic field. So radiation. So unlivable. There's also no point in a colony there. If life ends on earth it ends on Mars. There are no materials there we want. It offers exactly nothing we can't do better here, for much less money. Will we land on Mars? Sure. There's always the goal of being first. But live there? No. Unsupported by earth? Very much no.
  - aeternum 4mo ago
    '..it might be assumed that the flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in from one million to ten million years- provided, of course, we can meanwhile eliminate such little drawbacks and embarrassments as the existing relation between weight and strength in inorganic materials. No doubt the problem has attractions for those it interests, but to the ordinary man it would seem as if effort might be employed more profitably.' Oct 9 1903
    - somenameforme 4mo ago
      I think many may not understand your quote, especially given the nature of the language and the apparent non sequitur: https://archive.is/F3nnP https://archive.is/F3nnP That's an archive of the article it's originally from, from the NYTimes - "Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly", October 1903. The Wright Bros first successful flight would come in December 1903. The NYTimes also similarly published about the impossibility of spaceflight relatively shortly before it happened. I anxiously await the day for the NYTimes to dismiss colonizing Mars as impossible, as it means we are most certainly on the cusp of achieving exactly that.
      - bruce511 4mo ago
        The value of flight is incalculable. Especially if we see it as a precursor to satellites. A lot of people invested a lot in getting g it to work. Many people died making it better and better. The cost in treasure and lives was substantial, but the return is worth it. Contrast to the moon. The prestige was great, the investment enormous. The return was more-or-less zero. There was a reason Apollo 18 was canceled, and we stopped going. (Current efforts are in no rush, and are mostly about prestige.) The value of a colony on Mars is precisely zero. We might visit a couple times. But colonize? Nope.
- deleted 4mo ago
  [deleted]
- sjsdaiuasgdia 4mo ago
  Ok so let's talk about more terrestrial promises. How are robotaxis coming along, versus the promises? How are Optimus robots coming along, versus the promises? How is the 2nd edition Roadster coming along, versus the promises? You need to stop thinking of Musk in terms of a person who has "done amazing things" and letting that lead you to a belief that he has some kind of special ability in this space. He's the money guy. He's occasionally managed to acquire talent that has done amazing things. This does not give him an innate "make amazing things happen" ability. He can throw money at bad ideas and ineffectual people. He can make something happen given the size of his wealth, but whether that actually achieves any of the stated goals is largely independent of his own actions.
  - Nevermark 4mo ago
    Lots of late deliveries. This seems to be important to you. On the one hand, we have major advance, after major advance. But on the other hand, we have crossed out dates on a calendar! Cool things that were mentioned but haven't happen yet! Sad calendar! It's a real toss up! Puzzle question: is aspirational calendar-target overoptimism good or bad if you get things done late, but sooner than you would have, or at least, more things than you would have, than if you had set more "realistic" targets. Like decades. And then been late for that. I suggest instead complaining, you your time and Elon's tardiness to beat him to the punch! Lemonade punch. Meanwhile, the rest of us are late at things, but without the contrast of famous wins, nobody complains. It is so unfair!
    - sjsdaiuasgdia 4mo ago
      It's not really about "late" at this point. It's failure to deliver. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

I don't understand this thinking at all. I share all the disillusionment and cynicism about Musk, shared here by others. But he has also done amazing things. When someone declares they are going to create a Martian colony, something literally "out of this world", and against all odds makes unbelievable progress for years, including re-usable rockets that return and land vertically, more efficient powerful engines, and fast operational turnarounds, while making orbital travel mundane, hanging a criticism of schedules on the weak hook of "yet" is myopic.

threethirtytwo 4mo ago
People don’t look at the complexity of a human character. They take the easiest extreme and run with it. I was on another HN thread where practically everyone was calling Elon a psychopath. If you think objectively Elon is not a psychopath.
- sumeno 4mo ago
  He has a higher body count than any serial killer who has ever lived with DOGE alone. He may or may not be clinically diagnosable, but he's a monster either way
  - ben_w 4mo ago
    While I share your opinion on his character, the first part of what you say is also true for almost everyone who wielded the kinds and scales power that was given to him via DOGE: Every battleship is a hospital not built, etc.
    - sumeno 4mo ago
      There's a big difference between leaders making carefully considered decisions that have life and death consequences and what doge did.
      - ben_w 4mo ago
        Sure, this is why I opened the way I did. I agree Musk's a wrong 'un.
    - sjsdaiuasgdia 4mo ago
      This is a false equivalency, and it minimizes the carelessness and maliciousness of how DOGE operated.
    - aeternum 4mo ago
      > Every battleship is a hospital not built It's sad that this is believed when it's most often the opposite. Especially in this case we have a literal historical example. You'll never guess what Henry Kaiser built before creating Kaiser, the largest set of hospitals in CA.
      - ben_w 4mo ago
        I can't imagine why you think that's a good example. The money spent on the ships* could not be double-spent on hospitals. The workers whose manual labour was dedicated to those later ships could not be simultaneously dedicated to more hospitals. The crew of a battleship cannot be simultaneously working in a hospital, the maintenance teams repairing it cannot be simultaneously repairing a hospital. Every resource-management game demonstrates this principle, even if they're all gross simplifications. * Wikipedia says Kaiser's ships were cargo and transport, not battleships, which means they had the potential to be a net positive on the economy. This is better than a battleship, because domestic military gear can't be a net positive: the point is to keep matériel and personnel around to deter enemies, and only use them for training and when enemies aren't deterred.
        aeternum 4mo ago
        This could be true if labor were ever the bottleneck in construction projects. It almost never is.
- Angostura 4mo ago
  You’re right. Sociopath is probably a better fit.
  - threethirtytwo 4mo ago
    [flagged]
    - the_gastropod 4mo ago
      ... Did you just suggest gp is "worse than Hitler" for suggesting Elon Musk, a man who's very publicly called empathy a "fundamental weakness" and "threat to Western Civilization", a sociopath? And you went on to compare the powerless women tried for witchcraft to the richest man in the history of the planet? Please go touch grass, my dude.
      - threethirtytwo 4mo ago
        I suggested he's not in touch with reality when he accuses someone of being a sociopath who is clearly not. I compared him to the MOB that burned those women. That's the main comparison. You're the same because you and him would put elon to the slaughter because you're mob mentality is as violent as hitler. You need to get in touch with reality.
      - red-iron-pine 4mo ago
        don't forget the literal, repeated roman salutes comparisons to nazi leaders may be apt, because he is a business leader, and a nazi
    - sjsdaiuasgdia 4mo ago
      > Here's a test: Given the opportunity to kill Elon, you probably would. Given that you think Elon is a sociopath or evil incarnate. I'm generally against the death penalty. I'd be fine with just stripping him of his wealth and locking him in prison for the rest of his life. He doesn't need to die, but it would be good to minimize/eliminate his influence on the world.
bruce511 4mo ago
There will never be a colony on Mars. Not in the way we think about "colonies". For starters it's too cold, too dry, atmosphere is too thin, and there's no reasonably sustainable power source. But all of that is irrelevant because there's no magnetic field. So radiation. So unlivable. There's also no point in a colony there. If life ends on earth it ends on Mars. There are no materials there we want. It offers exactly nothing we can't do better here, for much less money. Will we land on Mars? Sure. There's always the goal of being first. But live there? No. Unsupported by earth? Very much no.
- aeternum 4mo ago
  '..it might be assumed that the flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in from one million to ten million years- provided, of course, we can meanwhile eliminate such little drawbacks and embarrassments as the existing relation between weight and strength in inorganic materials. No doubt the problem has attractions for those it interests, but to the ordinary man it would seem as if effort might be employed more profitably.' Oct 9 1903
  - somenameforme 4mo ago
    I think many may not understand your quote, especially given the nature of the language and the apparent non sequitur: https://archive.is/F3nnP https://archive.is/F3nnP That's an archive of the article it's originally from, from the NYTimes - "Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly", October 1903. The Wright Bros first successful flight would come in December 1903. The NYTimes also similarly published about the impossibility of spaceflight relatively shortly before it happened. I anxiously await the day for the NYTimes to dismiss colonizing Mars as impossible, as it means we are most certainly on the cusp of achieving exactly that.
    - bruce511 4mo ago
      The value of flight is incalculable. Especially if we see it as a precursor to satellites. A lot of people invested a lot in getting g it to work. Many people died making it better and better. The cost in treasure and lives was substantial, but the return is worth it. Contrast to the moon. The prestige was great, the investment enormous. The return was more-or-less zero. There was a reason Apollo 18 was canceled, and we stopped going. (Current efforts are in no rush, and are mostly about prestige.) The value of a colony on Mars is precisely zero. We might visit a couple times. But colonize? Nope.
deleted 4mo ago
[deleted]
sjsdaiuasgdia 4mo ago
Ok so let's talk about more terrestrial promises. How are robotaxis coming along, versus the promises? How are Optimus robots coming along, versus the promises? How is the 2nd edition Roadster coming along, versus the promises? You need to stop thinking of Musk in terms of a person who has "done amazing things" and letting that lead you to a belief that he has some kind of special ability in this space. He's the money guy. He's occasionally managed to acquire talent that has done amazing things. This does not give him an innate "make amazing things happen" ability. He can throw money at bad ideas and ineffectual people. He can make something happen given the size of his wealth, but whether that actually achieves any of the stated goals is largely independent of his own actions.
- Nevermark 4mo ago
  Lots of late deliveries. This seems to be important to you. On the one hand, we have major advance, after major advance. But on the other hand, we have crossed out dates on a calendar! Cool things that were mentioned but haven't happen yet! Sad calendar! It's a real toss up! Puzzle question: is aspirational calendar-target overoptimism good or bad if you get things done late, but sooner than you would have, or at least, more things than you would have, than if you had set more "realistic" targets. Like decades. And then been late for that. I suggest instead complaining, you your time and Elon's tardiness to beat him to the punch! Lemonade punch. Meanwhile, the rest of us are late at things, but without the contrast of famous wins, nobody complains. It is so unfair!
  - sjsdaiuasgdia 4mo ago
    It's not really about "late" at this point. It's failure to deliver. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...