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OpenAI misses revenue, is the AI bubble bursting?
- therobots927 5mo agoSo quiet on HN you can hear crickets… Chirp chirp
- brazukadev 5mo agothe more people talk the bigger te chance of it bursting so lots of people will just stay mute hoping it is not the time yet.
- therobots927 5mo agoSilence is its own kind of loud.
- ugyyy 5mo agoThe tide turned the past 2 months. Hype is fading away. This place was really unbearable back then, it’s not so bad now.
- ivandenysov 5mo agoThis comment is a mandatory mention of Betteridge's law of headlines.
- brazukadev 5mo agoor so Sam Altman hopes
- mock-possum 5mo agoGod I hope so
- ChrisArchitect 5mo agoRelated: OpenAI Misses Key Revenue, User Targets in High-Stakes Sprint Toward IPO https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47929510 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47929510
- jaredcwhite 5mo ago"rapidly evolving industry" That has always been wildly unprofitable…
- ChildOfChaos 5mo agoAs were a lot of big companies, like Amazon, until they weren’t.
- bit1993 5mo agoAnyone else think OpenAI and Anthropic should really be one company?
- brazukadev 5mo agoWhy? I don't mind both of them going out of business.
- deleted 5mo ago[deleted]
- jakeydus 5mo agoTwo birds with one stone thing maybe?
- danaw 5mo agocrazy idea but how about we force them to become a public entity since their entire product is built on our stolen IP?
- derwiki 5mo agoNo? Generally, competition is considered good
- 9fwfj9r 5mo agoOpenAI had worse models (GPT 5.2 and 5.4) at that time. But now the tables have turned. Would Anthropic face a similar situation since Opus 4.7 falls below expectations?
- cyber_kinetist 5mo agoClaude and Claude Code are still quite useful even when considering the recent degradations, so I don't think corporate users will leave easily especially considering that they're subsidized by their companies. I think the most likely scenario is that Anthropic will remove the Max ($100 / $200) subscriptions (which were the sweet spot for most users) and opt for token-based prices instead, which will make the average cost 2x ~ 3x higher which will keep them afloat in terms of ROI. Performance will plateau though since model research cannot sustain itself any longer, and then it's only a matter of how fast the open-source Chinese models will catch up in efficiency.
- dexterlagan 5mo agoAnthropic has since found and fixed the perf. problem: https://www.anthropic.com/engineering/april-23-postmortem https://www.anthropic.com/engineering/april-23-postmortem
- danaw 5mo agoa 2-3x pricing increase will also lose them customers and still they're likely to be bleeding cash like a stuck pig
- threepts 5mo agoIncreasing cost will only make people embrace competitor or open source models.
- cyber_kinetist 5mo agoWhat if the competitors are also expensive? If one of OpenAI and Anthropic raises prices, the other one will follow suit (since both have the same profitability problem). Open source models currently look good on paper, but the flagship models are still quite huge and cannot be run efficiently on consumer hardware, thus having the same inference hosting cost issues (I'm assuming OpenAI and Anthropic has done a shit ton of optimizations already on their servers.) The main breakthrough needed is plainly cheaper and more efficient hardware (such as TPUs or Huawei Ascends), and how to scale infrastructure quickly without losing money.
- illist-ell1s 5mo agoThese companies will not be able to keep making large improvements to their models as time goes on. You gotta remember to not be holding the bag when the music stops.
- firebot 5mo agoGustafson would hard disagree with you, while Amdahl shares your pessimism. I think Gustafson has better receipts... His main argument is that software will update to take advantage of new parallelism in hardware. And that's definitely been the case. AI has ridiculous levels exploitable parallelism. It'll scale up and out.
- whinvik 5mo agoIs this article really worth sharing? A speculative headline with no numbers, no estimates, 0 data. Feels like click bait and HN is submitting to the bait.
- therobots927 5mo agoOh you want numbers? Here’s a number: 3.5 That’s the number of years until we achieve AGI according to Sam Altman: https://techresearchonline.com/news/sam-altman-predicts-agi-with-major-work-implications/ https://techresearchonline.com/news/sam-altman-predicts-agi-... This company’s current valuation is entirely speculative. So if you’re going to criticize the article, maybe direct some of that skepticism towards the company in question.
- naveen99 5mo agoIsn’t it general knowledge AGI has been achieved ?
- brazukadev 5mo agoYou don't need numbers when the person responsible for the numbers says they are bad.
- i_love_retros 5mo agoThe billions being thrown at openai and anthropic are speculative
- guluarte 5mo agoI guess free tokens are over and most providers will move to token based billing soon.
- tedd4u 5mo agoThis CNBC article is based on a Wall Street Journal article. https://archive.ph/mTiIs https://archive.ph/mTiIs OpenAI Misses Key Revenue, User Targets in High-Stakes Sprint Toward IPO By Berber Jin The company’s CFO and board have questioned the wisdom of massive data-center spending in the face of slowing growth
- nullsmack 5mo agoThe Dot Com bubble burst and it didn't materially affect anything. Some of the things that failed then even came back later. Buying stuff online ate retail, sadly enough. Some dumb business plans went away, but the core of the commercial web never did. There's an idea, mostly from the anti-AI folks, that AI will magically "go away" once the bubble finally bursts and I hate to burst any more bubbles here but AI isn't going back in the bottle. For better or worse.
- ChildOfChaos 5mo agoYeah exactly. It’s pretty certain that the AI bubble will burst. A few companies will have a hard time and disappear. For everyone else though, this will just be headlines in the news and AI will continue as it was.
- nikolay 5mo agoJournos love bashing AI, knowing they will be replaced by it within months to a couple of years.
- i_love_retros 5mo agoOK sam