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yeah I did expect US to know all those things... but what I did NOT expect, is how Iran regime would choose strategically suicidal options just to "feel good"

yeah I did expect US to know all those things... but what I did NOT expect, is how Iran regime would choose strategically suicidal options just to "feel good" missile-rambo even on non-combatant countries? that'll trigger self-defense attacks... $2M per voyage? woah... the stait-users don't have a choice, but "make an example out of" iran... I mean, iran should have just shot israel with all its missiles (select and focus), and bring that "missle interception rate" down to 40%. Now what did iran gain from shooting everyone? making more enemies, and showing your weaknesses (96% missile interception rate, even from UAE? wtf...) don't get me wrong -- I'm not saying Trump was right on starting the war. I actually think what the fk was he thinking back then... I'm just saying even if you're angry and desperate, there are wise choices and dumb choices

deleted 6mo ago
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samus 6mo ago
The Gulf states are not any more willing than the USA at invading Iran with ground troops. The only thing that changes by making them angry is that slightly more missiles fly into Iran. Which is already accounted for and won't magically reopen the strait.
- Pay08 6mo ago
  Actually, Saudi Arabia might get involved.
  - andriy_koval 6mo ago
    they couldn't defeat much smaller and weaker Yemen.
    - samus 6mo ago
      Did that involve boot on the grounds or just shelling via cruise missiles or from air? Also, Yemen is poorer, but has more or less the same population as Saudi Arabia.
    - Pay08 6mo ago
      That doesn't mean they can't be useful, and they do already have a chip on their shoulder wrt Iran because of Iran's support for the Houthis.
      - andriy_koval 6mo ago
        Yemen situation is just good indication of how useful they could be, and answer is not much. They don't have good functioning military.
        throwup238 6mo ago
        Their military is a paper tiger like Saddam’s was during the Iraq invasion. Modern gear but without the doctrine or officer corps to effectively use it. My experience while working there years ago was that their armed forces were a weird mix of coup proofing and a nepotistic dumping ground for family members who couldn’t be trusted to help run the family business.
      - sysguest 6mo ago
        well with all the oil money, saudis and UAE don't even have to send their own citizens: they can just pay gurkha mercenaries for the job
  - don_esteban 6mo ago
    I doubt US wants them involved. The coordination will be difficult (I doubt the Saudis are properly, NATO - style, trained for joint actions with USA). Their involvement would also severely raise the risk of friendly fire (see the F15's over Kuwait).
rurp 6mo ago
I disagree. Even though I think the Iranian regime has been extremely incompetent overall their war strategy has been surprisingly lucid. They aren't actually risking much more by attacking neighboring countries that are already cooperating with the US. How much is Qatar's military involvement going to move the needle when you're already facing a full-on war with the US and Israel? Raising the overall costs to the US and its allies is a pretty coherent theory of victory for Iran. Obviously they aren't going to win a conventional fight, but they might be able to inflict enough havoc on energy and commodity markets to the point that it really hurts the US and its allies economically; perhaps enough that they bail out of the war in order to stabilize the global economy. Trump clearly wanted a quick easy win here and does not want to see massive inflation at home. Sure he personally doesn't give a shit about Americans but the rest of the politicians who enable him do and he's at risk of absolutely torching his own party for years if the war drags on and costs really get out of hand. All the Iranian regime has to do to win is not lose for enough weeks. If the regime holds out Trump will have to either give up and try to pretend this disaster was a Great Victory, or he'll launch a ground invasion that will almost certainly turn into a quagmire. Bombing civilians makes a popular uprising much less likely, so the US is doing them quite a favor on that front.
- markdown 6mo ago
  Yup, Iran is threatening regime change by targeting the financial stability of American voters. It's their only play, really.
  - sysguest 6mo ago
    well... I actually think even when trump is impeached, the democrats will continue -- even more so, to call mr trump "a weak president" I mean, can US and its allies exactly stop at status quo? Iran just learnt it can missile nearby neighbors and demand $2M toll fee on the strait users... even if US just backs down from "epic wut", will iran become "the good guy" and never missile neighbors and stop demanding that $2M toll? nope: rather, that would mean US and allies will lose its deterrence against Iran completely iran'll start bullying more on those neighbors, and the toll fee will go up: $2M to $5M to $10M to... even $100M -- I mean, what's stopping iran from doing so? anyway, I'm just surprised everyone in this forum is trying their best only to say "trump is such an idiot to start the war (well duh?)", and not to look at what choices each nations had/have after trump's dickhead move
watwut 6mo ago
Iran did not made more ennemies. It attacked countries that did not liked Iran and hosted American assets. They are easier to hit and harder to defend then Israel. That is depleting defense forces more.
breve 6mo ago
> Iran should have just shot israel with all its missiles (select and focus) Iran has deliberately escalated the war horizontally to create a bigger mess and to make the military adventure more expensive for America and the world. Iran is saying, "If you attack us, these are the costs." As an invading military, you're either willing to pay those costs or you're not.

deleted 6mo ago

[deleted]

samus 6mo ago

The Gulf states are not any more willing than the USA at invading Iran with ground troops. The only thing that changes by making them angry is that slightly more missiles fly into Iran. Which is already accounted for and won't magically reopen the strait.

Pay08 6mo ago
Actually, Saudi Arabia might get involved.
- andriy_koval 6mo ago
  they couldn't defeat much smaller and weaker Yemen.
  - samus 6mo ago
    Did that involve boot on the grounds or just shelling via cruise missiles or from air? Also, Yemen is poorer, but has more or less the same population as Saudi Arabia.
  - Pay08 6mo ago
    That doesn't mean they can't be useful, and they do already have a chip on their shoulder wrt Iran because of Iran's support for the Houthis.
    - andriy_koval 6mo ago
      Yemen situation is just good indication of how useful they could be, and answer is not much. They don't have good functioning military.
      - throwup238 6mo ago
        Their military is a paper tiger like Saddam’s was during the Iraq invasion. Modern gear but without the doctrine or officer corps to effectively use it. My experience while working there years ago was that their armed forces were a weird mix of coup proofing and a nepotistic dumping ground for family members who couldn’t be trusted to help run the family business.
    - sysguest 6mo ago
      well with all the oil money, saudis and UAE don't even have to send their own citizens: they can just pay gurkha mercenaries for the job
- don_esteban 6mo ago
  I doubt US wants them involved. The coordination will be difficult (I doubt the Saudis are properly, NATO - style, trained for joint actions with USA). Their involvement would also severely raise the risk of friendly fire (see the F15's over Kuwait).

rurp 6mo ago

I disagree. Even though I think the Iranian regime has been extremely incompetent overall their war strategy has been surprisingly lucid. They aren't actually risking much more by attacking neighboring countries that are already cooperating with the US. How much is Qatar's military involvement going to move the needle when you're already facing a full-on war with the US and Israel? Raising the overall costs to the US and its allies is a pretty coherent theory of victory for Iran. Obviously they aren't going to win a conventional fight, but they might be able to inflict enough havoc on energy and commodity markets to the point that it really hurts the US and its allies economically; perhaps enough that they bail out of the war in order to stabilize the global economy. Trump clearly wanted a quick easy win here and does not want to see massive inflation at home. Sure he personally doesn't give a shit about Americans but the rest of the politicians who enable him do and he's at risk of absolutely torching his own party for years if the war drags on and costs really get out of hand. All the Iranian regime has to do to win is not lose for enough weeks. If the regime holds out Trump will have to either give up and try to pretend this disaster was a Great Victory, or he'll launch a ground invasion that will almost certainly turn into a quagmire. Bombing civilians makes a popular uprising much less likely, so the US is doing them quite a favor on that front.

markdown 6mo ago
Yup, Iran is threatening regime change by targeting the financial stability of American voters. It's their only play, really.
- sysguest 6mo ago
  well... I actually think even when trump is impeached, the democrats will continue -- even more so, to call mr trump "a weak president" I mean, can US and its allies exactly stop at status quo? Iran just learnt it can missile nearby neighbors and demand $2M toll fee on the strait users... even if US just backs down from "epic wut", will iran become "the good guy" and never missile neighbors and stop demanding that $2M toll? nope: rather, that would mean US and allies will lose its deterrence against Iran completely iran'll start bullying more on those neighbors, and the toll fee will go up: $2M to $5M to $10M to... even $100M -- I mean, what's stopping iran from doing so? anyway, I'm just surprised everyone in this forum is trying their best only to say "trump is such an idiot to start the war (well duh?)", and not to look at what choices each nations had/have after trump's dickhead move

watwut 6mo ago

Iran did not made more ennemies. It attacked countries that did not liked Iran and hosted American assets. They are easier to hit and harder to defend then Israel. That is depleting defense forces more.

breve 6mo ago

> Iran should have just shot israel with all its missiles (select and focus) Iran has deliberately escalated the war horizontally to create a bigger mess and to make the military adventure more expensive for America and the world. Iran is saying, "If you attack us, these are the costs." As an invading military, you're either willing to pay those costs or you're not.