7 ms·

According to Polymarket, there's a 16% chance US will confirm aliens exist: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027 https

by Void_ 6mo ago

According to Polymarket, there's a 16% chance US will confirm aliens exist: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027 https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens...

kevmo314 6mo ago
Someone with the ability to register .gov domains is trying to make a sneaky buck.
- rationalist 6mo ago
  It used to be anyone with a fax machine could register any .gov but they fixed that when there was a news report about it.
  - afn 6mo ago
    I was curious about this, so for anyone else who’s interested, here’s a KrebsOnSecurity article from 2019 about how easy it was to fraudulently register a .gov domain: https://krebsonsecurity.com/2019/11/its-way-too-easy-to-get-a-gov-domain-name/ https://krebsonsecurity.com/2019/11/its-way-too-easy-to-get-... I haven’t seen any follow-up reporting, but it looks like the process now requires some semblance of identity verification: https://get.gov/domains/before/ https://get.gov/domains/before/
Insanity 6mo ago
That's just gambling without any basis for reality though. Not sure if you're actually attributing any weight to random gamblers lol.
kibwen 6mo ago
We know for a fact that the US government has no evidence of aliens existing, because there's a 0% chance Trump wouldn't have blabbed about it during his first term.
- pdimitar 6mo ago
  I mean, fair, but who says he'll be appraised and knowing about it at all?
nxobject 6mo ago
Ah, the wisdom of the crowds (of gamblers.)
wavemode 6mo ago
Taking the opposite side of this bet feels like a free 19% return on your money.
- A1kmm 6mo ago
  It's based on what Donald Trump (or any other US president, should it come to that) says, not on any evidence or ground truth beyond that. The are motives for lying on this - for a start, if a president knows definitively they're going to say it, it's a free 81% return. Secondly, it's a pretty big dead cat to throw on the table to distract from any scandal and/or to keep themselves in the news cycle on a different topic.
barchar 6mo ago
It's because of the time value of money. Buying no is much like buying a bond. It doesn't mean there's a 16% chance. It's probably more attractive to gamblers when presented like this.

by Void_ 6mo ago

kevmo314 6mo ago

Someone with the ability to register .gov domains is trying to make a sneaky buck.

rationalist 6mo ago
It used to be anyone with a fax machine could register any .gov but they fixed that when there was a news report about it.
- afn 6mo ago
  I was curious about this, so for anyone else who’s interested, here’s a KrebsOnSecurity article from 2019 about how easy it was to fraudulently register a .gov domain: https://krebsonsecurity.com/2019/11/its-way-too-easy-to-get-a-gov-domain-name/ https://krebsonsecurity.com/2019/11/its-way-too-easy-to-get-... I haven’t seen any follow-up reporting, but it looks like the process now requires some semblance of identity verification: https://get.gov/domains/before/ https://get.gov/domains/before/

Insanity 6mo ago

That's just gambling without any basis for reality though. Not sure if you're actually attributing any weight to random gamblers lol.

kibwen 6mo ago

We know for a fact that the US government has no evidence of aliens existing, because there's a 0% chance Trump wouldn't have blabbed about it during his first term.

pdimitar 6mo ago
I mean, fair, but who says he'll be appraised and knowing about it at all?

nxobject 6mo ago

Ah, the wisdom of the crowds (of gamblers.)

wavemode 6mo ago

Taking the opposite side of this bet feels like a free 19% return on your money.

A1kmm 6mo ago
It's based on what Donald Trump (or any other US president, should it come to that) says, not on any evidence or ground truth beyond that. The are motives for lying on this - for a start, if a president knows definitively they're going to say it, it's a free 81% return. Secondly, it's a pretty big dead cat to throw on the table to distract from any scandal and/or to keep themselves in the news cycle on a different topic.

barchar 6mo ago

It's because of the time value of money. Buying no is much like buying a bond. It doesn't mean there's a 16% chance. It's probably more attractive to gamblers when presented like this.