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Why Affordability and the Vibecession Are Real Economic Problems
- t-writescode 7mo ago> But the first step is to believe that what people have been screaming about their lives for the past several years actually exists. Even a representative agent, forward-looking and fully aware of all the parameters surrounding them, can feel the vibecession. Gee. Who would have fucking thought. When people, en masse, are saying they're in pain, *believe them*. They have very real fears or stressors, even if "you" can't understand them.
- renewiltord 7mo ago[flagged]
- t-writescode 7mo agoWell, okay, so just like this article talks about, people often find it easier to declare a source of a problem, rather than describing a symptom they're having. Illegals aren't taking their jobs - there's plenty of studies evidencing that that's not true. *BUT*, people are feeling: 1. under-employed 2. under-paid 3. in some level of pain, economically 4. feeling insecure, financially And they're saying "it's those damn illegals takin' my job" to reflect that pain. Sure, propaganda plays a part of the experienced pain people have; but it's often not all of it. Propaganda is less effective when people are comfortable.
- DangitBobby 7mo agoIt is hard to understand how we can import unskilled labor and not have that impact the value of unskilled labor domestically.
- t-writescode 7mo agoUnskilled labor is a myth. When we kicked out all the agricultural workers, it wasn’t just that it’s hard to find replacements, the replacements also learned how hard it is to actually do that kind of actually skilled work.
- DangitBobby 7mo agoWe're going with "unskilled labor is a myth"? Really? You could have given me 1 million guesses and I never would have come up with that. Unskilled labor is not a myth. It's a description of work that requires a shorter amount of training time for someone to be able to do the work, as opposed to, say, a dentist who needs years of schooling. Jobs where the primary requirements are physicality often qualify, with professional sports being a notable exception. And if the work is really hard so no one wants to do it, labor markets generally have a pretty reliable mechanism for correcting that situation by raising prices. You could argue that higher food prices would be a problem, but you can't argue that imported labor doesn't impact it. No "study" will ever prove that importing labor doesn't suppress wages or that "unskilled labor is a myth".
- renewiltord 7mo agoIt's looking a lot like when you say "believe them", you mean "rewrite what they say and believe that thing instead". Yeah, I can do that for any political affiliation.
- t-writescode 7mo agoNot at all. I believe the experience they're expressing, when expressed in the most positive light. I'm not going to entertain a racist perspective, such as "there's too many brown people here" or similar; but I will entertain a more favorable perspective: "I feel like I can't get a different job if I lost mine", "I can't afford groceries", "My rainy day fund isn't large enough for a rainy day and this makes me scared". "It doesn't feel like there's enough jobs to go around". All of these could be very real, underlying statements to the statement "Illegal immigrants are taking all the jobs". Obviously more conversation would be necessary to get the exact issue they're actually experiencing. But just like a patient coming to a doctor and saying "my back hurts, I must have a herniated disk"; or a customer coming and saying "your website sucks, you should rewrite it in React", there's not enough information there to get to the true, underlying cause; *BUT* you can wholly believe the patient that they are in pain, or at that there is something about the website that isn't meeting this user's needs. That's step 1. Believe the person in their experience, then investigate and address the real root cause of their pain.
- renewiltord 7mo ago[flagged]
- donkeybeer 7mo ago"They" built? Who is this "they"? I don't know of any people of 250 plus years of age. And workers, no matter one generation or ten generations of lineage in the country have "built" it.
- renewiltord 7mo agoJust because you don't know them doesn't mean they don't exist.
- majormajor 7mo agoThey're saying gas is too expensive. They're saying rent is too high. They're saying houses cost too much. They're saying a cocktail shouldn't cost double digits. They're saying they can't afford doctors or health insurance. The complaints are specific about specific changes in affordability, not 80's AM radio talking points. They mostly aren't suddenly saying illegal immigrants are taking their jobs. (Certainly some people are, but it's not really a bigger contingent than any other time in the last... 30? 40? years...)
- donkeybeer 7mo agoBut they are also saying no to build more houses. They are also screaming and clamoyring to tariff the world 500 percent and then some more. Many people say many things, many people are also economically and mathematically illiterate and or pretending to be due to some vested interest.
- t-writescode 7mo agoThat’s them attempting to solve problems. The pain they experience is still experienced pain. Is some of it trauma-related? Sure! But that’s a lot of people experiencing a real or perceived hurt that we should pay attention to.
- donkeybeer 7mo agoI think there comes a point when people are so adamantly illiterate and antimathematical (and a good helping of other fun things like racism), they are beyond help.
- toomuchtodo 7mo agoWhite Americans’ feelings of being “last place” are associated with anti-DEI attitudes, Trump support, and Trump vote during the 2024 U.S. presidential election - https://advances.in/psychology/10.56296/aip00046/ https://advances.in/psychology/10.56296/aip00046/ | https://doi.org/10.56296/aip00046 https://doi.org/10.56296/aip00046 Abstract: Due to racial wealth inequality in the U.S.—inequality that benefits White Americans on average—many Americans associate White people with wealth. Yet, many White Americans report feeling like they, personally, are “falling behind.” We conducted a five-wave longitudinal study with a representative quota sample of non-Hispanic, White Americans (N = 506) during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. We found that White Americans who feel they are falling behind White and Asian Americans, while also being close to being passed by Black and Hispanic Americans, within a perceived tight status hierarchy, reported the most support for DEI bans and Trump, controlling for objective status. Further, White Americans with these status perceptions were most likely to vote for Trump in the 2024 election. We conclude that White Americans’ subjective perceptions of their position in the racial economic hierarchy meaningfully relate to political attitudes and behavior. The Findings: Using a statistical technique called Latent Profile Analysis (LPA), we identified distinct groups based on where people subjectively ranked themselves and other racial groups on the American status ladder. * We found a specific group of White Americans (~15% of our sample) who perceived themselves as "tied for last place" with Black Americans. * Crucially: This group was the most likely to vote for Donald Trump and support bans on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives. * Importantly, this effect held true even when we controlled for their actual income, education, age, and gender. In other words, feeling like you are losing status predicted voting behavior more strongly than actually having low status. Reddit AmA with the authors: https://old.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1qz9158/we_are_professors_of_psychology_and_mathematics/ https://old.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1qz9158/we_are_pr...
- add-sub-mul-div 7mo agoWe shouldn't be giving participation trophies to people who slept through world history class and then fall for recycled demagoguery about how it's the poor who are sucking up all the wealth and not the rich.
- renewiltord 7mo agoWell “believe them” seems to have been a system that survived a few hours. Unsurprising.
- catlover76 7mo ago[dead]
- Freedom2 7mo agoAgreed. The DOW is over 50,000, what's not to celebrate about the current economy?
- renewiltord 7mo agoNo? Dawn of War has only released up to DOW 3.
- NoGravitas 7mo agoIndeed. The problems exist. The Republicans have absolutely batshit and counterproductive explanations and proposed solutions for those problems, but at least they acknowledge them. The Democrats only offered condescending denial. (Until Mamdani's campaign. But even then the DNC tried their hardest to ratfuck him, as they always do with candidates to the left of Dick Cheney.)
- ajross 7mo agoIt's not an economic effect. The news is all awful. If you're in the US and on the left, or outside the US, the world is descending into autocratic chaos and police state violence. If you're in the US and on the right, the country is descending into chaos at the hands of the anarchist left and the invasion of a horde of immigrants who need to be suppressed by autocratic chaos and police state violence. Yeah yeah, there's food on the shelves and money in your pocket. But it's scary out there for everyone, and that trumps (heh) rationality. The solution is to get Washington and partisan media to, ahem, shut the fuck up and just let people be happy. But that doesn't put bribes in their pockets or advertisers on their screens, so on with the autocratic chaos.
- alephnerd 7mo agoI think it would be beneficial to conduct such analysis at a subnational level, becuase the reality is the market dynamics in (eg.) the Bay are distinct from those in Chicagoland. A similar macro-level analysis by the FT highlighted how certain states are in the midst of a positive economic expansion and others have fallen into a deep recessionary cycle [0]. I've also noticed HN cycles of pessimism and optimism shift significantly based on time zone - which could be attributed to this subnational malaise. [0] - https://www.ft.com/content/e9be3e3f-2efe-42f7-b2d2-8ab3efea27a8?shareType=nongift https://www.ft.com/content/e9be3e3f-2efe-42f7-b2d2-8ab3efea2...
- Avicebron 7mo ago[flagged]
- alephnerd 7mo agoNot really. Different demographics and different subeconomies are feeling better or worse than others. CPI is also calculated at a subnational level as well. Insurance, Rent, Food, and other fundamentals are all differently priced in different regions and subregions of the US. Edit: cannot reply > The racial diversion ... This comment was not about race - both Oregon and West Virgina are majority white, but have entirely different demographics (urban heavy Oregon with the population centered around Portland versus rural primary WV with microagglomerations on the border of DMV and Huntington-Ashland). And more critically, the fact that you assumed it as such betrays a lot about you.
- Avicebron 7mo agoThe racial diversion is tiring and hedging by "it's all relative" is boring. The article is about zeitgeist..
- donkeybeer 7mo agoWhere is there anything about race in that comment? How on earth did you hallucinate that?
- Avicebron 7mo agoIt's weird I was having a conversation with a contractor the other day, and he mentioned how in 1970, contractors earned ~9k/year and a truck cost ~2k. He was making the comparison about how he made 50K this year and the truck he financed was also around 50K.. I don't think it's a coincidence a lot of problems are happening at the same time in the US.
- alephnerd 7mo ago[flagged]
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- retrac 7mo agoThe wage gap between black and white Americans is nearly the same today as in 1970.
- dottjt 7mo agoNot to justify this, but is this possibly the reason why those opportunities existed?
- majormajor 7mo agoThe 80s-and-on story of America is not a story of women and minorities getting on more solid economic footing at the cost of some additional costs for white male Americans. Almost everybody is worse off - higher debt, less property ownership among the youth, etc. I wouldn't agree with a position of "white people aren't going to stop being racist, just separate everyone and let them be" (we could call this the Clarence Thomas position, as Corey Robin has written about[0]). But it's wildly misleading to say that the slippage of the American economy is because of less overt discrimination. It's universal. The economy itself is broken compared to how it used to be. (Personally, I'd point at the oligarch-fighting "soak the rich" taxes passed in the early 20th century as a key point here.) [0] https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781627793834/theenigmaofclarencethomas/ https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781627793834/theenigmaofclar...
- 7mo ago
- majormajor 7mo agoTime for the other American political party to pick up the "nah it's just negative media, people still have money and food" drum! Sure, many people (in an absolute-number sense) are in no immediate risk of crisis. But many are. Economic policy for 40+ years has been shifting both income and wealth largely to the already-haves with massive knock-on effects on the general affordability and comfort for everybody else. The flow of money into small sets of assets and investments distorts the "inflation" measurements and we find ways to ignore it. Buy groceries instead of eating out! Just let the median household's kids work more too, in some red states! That part of the story has been going on for a long time, and the actual-Covid-inflation just drew more attention to the trend. People were talking about it long before Covid, but the Covid bullwhip and the complete lack of foresight or management[0] of the situation pushed it into a new, noticably-worse-normal overnight. While before we were just boiling the frog and blaming avocado toast for millenials not buying houses or having kids yet. Some good math in the post about the concrete part of this vs just "vibe" parts, especially re: the behavior of the lower-income end of the economy. But you can't have a viable consumer economy when everyone with power is squeezing the consumer tighter and tighter. We've been papering over this problem by making stuff free-with-ads but eventually there won't be enough buying power left in a large enough non-broke cohort to keep the system working for anybody. [0] "you think maybe people will want more of the stuff they bought before, and less Pelotons, in a two years?? No way! Buy Zoom stock!"
- randycupertino 7mo agoI saw a thing in Wall Street Journal today about how millennials are "splurging on rotisserie chicken." > “Gen Zers and millennials are swimming in student debt and may never own homes, but they’re splurging on gut-healthy juices and rotisserie chickens.” https://offthefrontpage.com/the-wall-street-journal-gets-community-noted-for-saying-gen-zers-and-millennials-are-splurging-on-rotisserie-chickens/ https://offthefrontpage.com/the-wall-street-journal-gets-com...
- throwup238 7mo agoAren’t rotisserie chickens one of the #1 grocery store loss leaders?
- lowbloodsugar 7mo agoThis guy isn’t wrong: https://youtu.be/Ub585Pn4yro https://youtu.be/Ub585Pn4yro “When metrics and anecdotes differ, believe the anecdotes.”
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]