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...but many people in positions where they can start a war or cause some other highly visible event of any sort probably will start turning to Polymarket to mak
by kbos87 8mo ago
...but many people in positions where they can start a war or cause some other highly visible event of any sort probably will start turning to Polymarket to make money in the course of their work
- fartfeatures 8mo agoWhich makes the prediction market more accurate.
- intended 8mo agoEh… sort of? In a sense, they become less accurate, because the prediction market is the causative event, not an independent observer.
- snowmobile 8mo agoNot really, for the same reason entrapment isn't usually seen as an accurate way to gather information for law enforcement. See also Goodhart's law and overfitting.
- pjc50 8mo ago"You provide the gambling, I'll provide the war"
- nkrisc 8mo agoUntil the tail starts wagging the dog.
- xpe 8mo agoAs long as we realize that prediction market accuracy is not all we care about. See also: one can have very high economic efficiency with very high inequality, war, disease, misery, etc.