6 ms·

Was in a hotel in Sapporo, almost got thrown out of bed. Lot of people in the hotel lobby now. Considering leaving Hokkaido by air if a Hokkaido and Sanriku Su

Was in a hotel in Sapporo, almost got thrown out of bed. Lot of people in the hotel lobby now. Considering leaving Hokkaido by air if a Hokkaido and Sanriku Subsequent Earthquake Advisory is issued, don't really want to be in a potential megaquake.

deleted 9mo ago
[deleted]
linenmerchant 9mo ago
Best of luck!
akg_67 9mo ago
Good luck, the Sapporo Chitose airport is closed for inspection of both runways. BTW, you are safer in hotel than outside. No need to stay in lobby, go to bed, just protect your head. I experienced much bigger one in Sapporo in 2018.
- rishikeshs 9mo ago
  I’m curious, how is it more safer inside a building than being outside?
  - nerbert 9mo ago
    Buildings are built to resist earthquakes. Outside, anything (electric poles, roof tiles...) can fall on you.
    - decae 9mo ago
      Shards of glass falling from ten stories up would be one of the main things to try to avoid.
  - jasonvorhe 9mo ago
    Modern buildings like hotels are built to withstand earthquakes of some magnitudes. Wouldn't count on that at a local construction site or a worn down house you might pass on the street.
    - buildbot 9mo ago
      Especially somewhere like Japan. A newer hotel is probably one of the safest places to be.
    - traceroute66 9mo ago
      > worn down house you might pass on the street. That "worn down house" might be good until "upper 6". Beyond that it all depends on when it was built and the associated construction standards at the time. Source: https://isec-society.org/ISEC_PRESS/ASEA_SEC_03/pdf/St-5_v5_12.pdf https://isec-society.org/ISEC_PRESS/ASEA_SEC_03/pdf/St-5_v5_...
  - traceroute66 9mo ago
    Japan has had earthquakes forever. Their building regulations mandate things like isolation and dampers. It all stems from an earthquake in 1923 in Yokohama which killed 140,000. Since then Japan's has over time developed some of the strictest seismic standards.
  - klempner 9mo ago
    Sure, in the middle of a magnitude 9 earthquake I'd rather be in the middle of a suburban golf course (as long as it is far from any coastal tsunami) than any building, but I don't spend the majority of my time outside. Two issues: 1. If you're making this choice during an earthquake, "outside" is often not a grassy field but rather the fall zone for debris from whatever building you're exiting. 2. If the earthquake is big/strong enough that you're in any real danger of building level issues, the shaking will be strong enough that if you try to run for the outside you're very likely to just fall and injure yourself.
  - lmm 9mo ago
    The main two ways people get injured in earthquakes (at least in Japan) are a) gas fires b) things falling on them. And being outside but near buildings is a good way for things to fall off those buildings onto you.
- pcl 9mo ago
  When I moved to SF, someone told me that the three most important things you can do for earthquake safety are: - make sure nothing can fall on you when you're in bed (no mounted artwork above the headboard; no lamps etc on side tables that are high enough to fall on you) - make sure you have footwear in your bedroom, so you can be mobile if there's broken glass everywhere - store extra drinking water somewhere (I used a 6-gallon carboy that I periodically refilled) Probably there are other good things to do, but all those made a lot of sense to me. Most of us spend more time in bed than in any other fixed location, so making sure the bed is a safe place rings true. And water is life.
  - parl_match 9mo ago
    Keep in mind that this is a major metropolitan area in a state that has a history of earthquakes. You can expect state level response (and federal as well) within the same day. Their main priority will be water, and elements exposure. Guidance varies. California list here https://earthquake.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/02/OES_Earthquake-Readiness-Guide-English.pdf https://earthquake.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/02... You should have water, food, medical supplies, and cash. btw you might find this interesting https://www.amusingplanet.com/2021/01/san-franciscos-hidden-cisterns.html https://www.amusingplanet.com/2021/01/san-franciscos-hidden-...
    - komali2 9mo ago
      Sf fire department has also a pdf with what you should have in an at home emergency kit. It's some simple things you can get in one trip to a camping store and Walgreens. https://sf-fire.org/media/794/download?inline https://sf-fire.org/media/794/download?inline I also recommend SF people consider joining NERT: neighborhood emergency response team. Disaster after disaster should teach us the opposite of what you argue in terms of response: in fact it's more likely that the scale of people affected will quickly overwhelm resources, and the existence of choke points will severely limit movement of people and resources, especially if infrastructure is damaged and people are flooding out of the city. That can be mitigated by having locals trained to help facilitate emergency response efforts. It's less "pulling people out from under bookshelves" and more "help managing the bureaucracy of the fire department," forms on forms on forms! Though the training does involve pulling someone out from under a bookshelf. It's a week long and quite fun!
cedws 9mo ago
People were freaking about the July megaquake prophecy and nothing happened. Trying to time it is silly, just chill and enjoy your stay, you'll probably be fine.
- freetime2 9mo ago
  This is different than the July megaquake prophecy, which was indeed dumb. With a strong quake like this there will be aftershocks. Most will be small, but there is a risk (about 5% according to the USGS) of an even stronger quake than the first within the next week or so [1]. I agree the parent will likely be fine, but it can be stressful in the aftermath of a large quake. And if they want to leave the area and have the opportunity to do so calmly and safely, I think that’s justified. [1] https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-probability-earthquake-a-foreshock-a-larger-earthquake https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-probability-earthquake-a-fore...
  - kulahan 9mo ago
    Why was the July megaquake, an 8.8 magnitude, a dumb prophecy, but this "strong quake" at a magnitude of 7.6 is a smart prophecy?
    - freetime2 9mo ago
      This isn’t something that I personally wish to debate, but I’ll leave link to the wikipedia page for the July 2025 prophecy [1] for anyone who may not know what we are talking about. And also point out that last night’s earthquake in Northern Japan was not a “prophecy”. Just a regular, large earthquake - which do occur pretty frequently in Japan. And I say "large" not just because of the magnitude, but because parts of Aomori experienced 6+ shaking on the shindo scale [2] which is categorized as "brutal" [3]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2025_Japan_megaquake_prophecy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2025_Japan_megaquake_prop... [2] https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/quake_detail.html?eventID=20251208232600&lang=en https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/quake_detail.html?eve... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Meteorological_Agency_seismic_intensity_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Meteorological_Agency_se...
jmward01 9mo ago
I'm not a geologist, but this was pretty deep (44.1k) so not likely a foreshock right? Any actual geologists have a thought here? I know we have seen some indications that foreshocks can happen before megathrust earthquakes but it would need to be at the interface right? This looks like it is just the subducted slab deep down which in the 'intermediate zone' so not impacting the interface that 'slips' in a megathrust earthquake. (again, not a geologist) Now there have been, by that I mean just now, a 6.6 aftershock that was only 10km deep so that is potentially more concerning?

deleted 9mo ago

[deleted]

linenmerchant 9mo ago

Best of luck!

akg_67 9mo ago

Good luck, the Sapporo Chitose airport is closed for inspection of both runways. BTW, you are safer in hotel than outside. No need to stay in lobby, go to bed, just protect your head. I experienced much bigger one in Sapporo in 2018.

rishikeshs 9mo ago
I’m curious, how is it more safer inside a building than being outside?
- nerbert 9mo ago
  Buildings are built to resist earthquakes. Outside, anything (electric poles, roof tiles...) can fall on you.
  - decae 9mo ago
    Shards of glass falling from ten stories up would be one of the main things to try to avoid.
- jasonvorhe 9mo ago
  Modern buildings like hotels are built to withstand earthquakes of some magnitudes. Wouldn't count on that at a local construction site or a worn down house you might pass on the street.
  - buildbot 9mo ago
    Especially somewhere like Japan. A newer hotel is probably one of the safest places to be.
  - traceroute66 9mo ago
    > worn down house you might pass on the street. That "worn down house" might be good until "upper 6". Beyond that it all depends on when it was built and the associated construction standards at the time. Source: https://isec-society.org/ISEC_PRESS/ASEA_SEC_03/pdf/St-5_v5_12.pdf https://isec-society.org/ISEC_PRESS/ASEA_SEC_03/pdf/St-5_v5_...
- traceroute66 9mo ago
  Japan has had earthquakes forever. Their building regulations mandate things like isolation and dampers. It all stems from an earthquake in 1923 in Yokohama which killed 140,000. Since then Japan's has over time developed some of the strictest seismic standards.
- klempner 9mo ago
  Sure, in the middle of a magnitude 9 earthquake I'd rather be in the middle of a suburban golf course (as long as it is far from any coastal tsunami) than any building, but I don't spend the majority of my time outside. Two issues: 1. If you're making this choice during an earthquake, "outside" is often not a grassy field but rather the fall zone for debris from whatever building you're exiting. 2. If the earthquake is big/strong enough that you're in any real danger of building level issues, the shaking will be strong enough that if you try to run for the outside you're very likely to just fall and injure yourself.
- lmm 9mo ago
  The main two ways people get injured in earthquakes (at least in Japan) are a) gas fires b) things falling on them. And being outside but near buildings is a good way for things to fall off those buildings onto you.
pcl 9mo ago
When I moved to SF, someone told me that the three most important things you can do for earthquake safety are: - make sure nothing can fall on you when you're in bed (no mounted artwork above the headboard; no lamps etc on side tables that are high enough to fall on you) - make sure you have footwear in your bedroom, so you can be mobile if there's broken glass everywhere - store extra drinking water somewhere (I used a 6-gallon carboy that I periodically refilled) Probably there are other good things to do, but all those made a lot of sense to me. Most of us spend more time in bed than in any other fixed location, so making sure the bed is a safe place rings true. And water is life.
- parl_match 9mo ago
  Keep in mind that this is a major metropolitan area in a state that has a history of earthquakes. You can expect state level response (and federal as well) within the same day. Their main priority will be water, and elements exposure. Guidance varies. California list here https://earthquake.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/02/OES_Earthquake-Readiness-Guide-English.pdf https://earthquake.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/02... You should have water, food, medical supplies, and cash. btw you might find this interesting https://www.amusingplanet.com/2021/01/san-franciscos-hidden-cisterns.html https://www.amusingplanet.com/2021/01/san-franciscos-hidden-...
  - komali2 9mo ago
    Sf fire department has also a pdf with what you should have in an at home emergency kit. It's some simple things you can get in one trip to a camping store and Walgreens. https://sf-fire.org/media/794/download?inline https://sf-fire.org/media/794/download?inline I also recommend SF people consider joining NERT: neighborhood emergency response team. Disaster after disaster should teach us the opposite of what you argue in terms of response: in fact it's more likely that the scale of people affected will quickly overwhelm resources, and the existence of choke points will severely limit movement of people and resources, especially if infrastructure is damaged and people are flooding out of the city. That can be mitigated by having locals trained to help facilitate emergency response efforts. It's less "pulling people out from under bookshelves" and more "help managing the bureaucracy of the fire department," forms on forms on forms! Though the training does involve pulling someone out from under a bookshelf. It's a week long and quite fun!

cedws 9mo ago

People were freaking about the July megaquake prophecy and nothing happened. Trying to time it is silly, just chill and enjoy your stay, you'll probably be fine.

freetime2 9mo ago
This is different than the July megaquake prophecy, which was indeed dumb. With a strong quake like this there will be aftershocks. Most will be small, but there is a risk (about 5% according to the USGS) of an even stronger quake than the first within the next week or so [1]. I agree the parent will likely be fine, but it can be stressful in the aftermath of a large quake. And if they want to leave the area and have the opportunity to do so calmly and safely, I think that’s justified. [1] https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-probability-earthquake-a-foreshock-a-larger-earthquake https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-probability-earthquake-a-fore...
- kulahan 9mo ago
  Why was the July megaquake, an 8.8 magnitude, a dumb prophecy, but this "strong quake" at a magnitude of 7.6 is a smart prophecy?
  - freetime2 9mo ago
    This isn’t something that I personally wish to debate, but I’ll leave link to the wikipedia page for the July 2025 prophecy [1] for anyone who may not know what we are talking about. And also point out that last night’s earthquake in Northern Japan was not a “prophecy”. Just a regular, large earthquake - which do occur pretty frequently in Japan. And I say "large" not just because of the magnitude, but because parts of Aomori experienced 6+ shaking on the shindo scale [2] which is categorized as "brutal" [3]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2025_Japan_megaquake_prophecy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2025_Japan_megaquake_prop... [2] https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/quake_detail.html?eventID=20251208232600&lang=en https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/quake_detail.html?eve... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Meteorological_Agency_seismic_intensity_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Meteorological_Agency_se...

jmward01 9mo ago

I'm not a geologist, but this was pretty deep (44.1k) so not likely a foreshock right? Any actual geologists have a thought here? I know we have seen some indications that foreshocks can happen before megathrust earthquakes but it would need to be at the interface right? This looks like it is just the subducted slab deep down which in the 'intermediate zone' so not impacting the interface that 'slips' in a megathrust earthquake. (again, not a geologist) Now there have been, by that I mean just now, a 6.6 aftershock that was only 10km deep so that is potentially more concerning?