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This is ultimately the first stage of human economic obsolescence and extinction. This https://cdna.pcpartpicker.com/static/forever/images/trends/2025.12.04.us

This is ultimately the first stage of human economic obsolescence and extinction. This https://cdna.pcpartpicker.com/static/forever/images/trends/2025.12.04.usd.ram.ddr5.6000.2x16384.5cd324eb79715651e5c39693bcec4df7.png https://cdna.pcpartpicker.com/static/forever/images/trends/2... will happen to every class of thing (once it hits energy, everything is downstream of energy).

captainkrtek 10mo ago
I'm no economist, but if (when?) the AI bubble bursts and demand collapses at the price point memory and other related components are at, wouldn't price recover? not trying to argue, just curious.
- reducesuffering 10mo ago
  IF a theoretical AI bubble bursts sure. However the largest capitalized companies in the world and all the smartest people able to do cutting edge AI research are betting otherwise. This is also what the start of a takeoff looks like
- squidbeak 10mo ago
  I'm no economist either, but I imagine the manufacturing processes for the two types of RAM are too different for supply to quickly bounce back.
piekvorst 10mo ago
Why should we believe in another apocalypse prediction?
- IAmBroom 10mo ago
  One of them has to be right, eventually!
- gooseus 10mo ago
  Because the collapse of complex societies is real - https://github.com/danielmkarlsson/library/blob/master/Joseph%20A%20Tainter%20-%20The%20collapse%20of%20complex%20societies.pdf https://github.com/danielmkarlsson/library/blob/master/Josep... Unbounded increases in complexity lead to diminishing returns on energy investment and increased system fragility which both contribute to an increased likelihood of collapse as solutions to old problems generate new problems faster than new solutions can be created since energy that should be dedicated to new solutions is needed to maintain the layers of complexity generated by the layers of previous solutions.
benlivengood 10mo ago
If your argument is that value produced per-cpu will increase so significantly that the value produced by AGI/ASI per unit cost exceeds what humans can produce for their upkeep in food and shelter, then yes that seems to be one of the significant risks long term if governments don't intervene. If the argument is that prices will skyrocket simply because of long-term AI demand, I think that ignores the fact that manufacturing vastly more products will stabilize prices up to the point that raw materials start to become significantly more expensive, and is strongly incentivized over the ~10-year timeframe for IC manufacturers.
- torben-friis 10mo ago
  >the value produced by AGI/ASI per unit cost exceeds what humans can produce for their upkeep in food and shelter The value of AGI/ASI is not only defined by its practical use, It is also bounded by the purchasing power of potential consumers. If humans aren’t worth paying, those humans won’t be paying anyone either. No business can function without customers, no matter how good the product.
  - benlivengood 10mo ago
    Precisely the place where government intervention is required to distribute wealth equitably.

captainkrtek 10mo ago

I'm no economist, but if (when?) the AI bubble bursts and demand collapses at the price point memory and other related components are at, wouldn't price recover? not trying to argue, just curious.

reducesuffering 10mo ago
IF a theoretical AI bubble bursts sure. However the largest capitalized companies in the world and all the smartest people able to do cutting edge AI research are betting otherwise. This is also what the start of a takeoff looks like
squidbeak 10mo ago
I'm no economist either, but I imagine the manufacturing processes for the two types of RAM are too different for supply to quickly bounce back.

piekvorst 10mo ago

Why should we believe in another apocalypse prediction?

IAmBroom 10mo ago
One of them has to be right, eventually!
gooseus 10mo ago
Because the collapse of complex societies is real - https://github.com/danielmkarlsson/library/blob/master/Joseph%20A%20Tainter%20-%20The%20collapse%20of%20complex%20societies.pdf https://github.com/danielmkarlsson/library/blob/master/Josep... Unbounded increases in complexity lead to diminishing returns on energy investment and increased system fragility which both contribute to an increased likelihood of collapse as solutions to old problems generate new problems faster than new solutions can be created since energy that should be dedicated to new solutions is needed to maintain the layers of complexity generated by the layers of previous solutions.

benlivengood 10mo ago

If your argument is that value produced per-cpu will increase so significantly that the value produced by AGI/ASI per unit cost exceeds what humans can produce for their upkeep in food and shelter, then yes that seems to be one of the significant risks long term if governments don't intervene. If the argument is that prices will skyrocket simply because of long-term AI demand, I think that ignores the fact that manufacturing vastly more products will stabilize prices up to the point that raw materials start to become significantly more expensive, and is strongly incentivized over the ~10-year timeframe for IC manufacturers.

torben-friis 10mo ago
>the value produced by AGI/ASI per unit cost exceeds what humans can produce for their upkeep in food and shelter The value of AGI/ASI is not only defined by its practical use, It is also bounded by the purchasing power of potential consumers. If humans aren’t worth paying, those humans won’t be paying anyone either. No business can function without customers, no matter how good the product.
- benlivengood 10mo ago
  Precisely the place where government intervention is required to distribute wealth equitably.