7 ms·

While Sodium Ion may be the future of grid batteries, it's not the present. As long as LFP is cheaper, there is no reason to go with Sodium. This calculus will

While Sodium Ion may be the future of grid batteries, it's not the present. As long as LFP is cheaper, there is no reason to go with Sodium. This calculus will probably change in 3-5 years, but today Sodium is more expensive and therefore has little demand without some form of discount or subsidy. The switch will be rapid once the economics make sense, but they don't yet.

nharada 11mo ago
CATL is claiming mass production of their sodium-ion batteries starts in December, with a target price of $10/kWh. If that ends up even partway true it'll completely change the economics of power storage.
- nextworddev 11mo ago
  CATL is just dumping
  - nharada 11mo ago
    What makes you say that? I don’t know this space very well
    - nextworddev 11mo ago
      Dumping batteries is yet another strategy to take control of global energy infrastructure and destabilize petrodollar
      - nharada 11mo ago
        Oh yeah I get what you’re saying but is that a thing? Like CATL has had lines before that aren’t making a profit?
        Qwertious 11mo ago
        It's not a thing; people are just stuck in the 2000s and think that China can't beat the West technologically and therefore must be cheating.
        deleted 11mo ago
        [deleted]
        nextworddev 11mo ago
        They have decent technology (which they stole a decent chunk) and cheat at the same time.. nothing to do with the west feeling insecurity. In fact, the west could benefit from some mobilizing around insecurity
        tooltalk 11mo ago
        > people are just stuck in the 2000s and think that China can't beat the West technologically and therefore must be cheating. We are talking since early 2010 and on. And it's pretty much what everyone says they are: China has been breaking every trade/IP laws/agreements -- forced IP transfer/IP theft, ban foreign competition, illegal state subsidies to overcapacity, etc to get to where they are in the EV battery market.
  - bryanlarsen 11mo ago
    CATL had a profit of $2.6B last quarter on sales of $15B. That indicates they're pricing well above cost rather than below it.
    - tooltalk 11mo ago
      dumping doesn't depend on profit or loss. Also the legal definition of dumping is less-than-the-"normal value." (see Article VI ANTI-DUMPING AND COUNTERVAILING DUTIES of GATT 1994). But then China is a non-market-economy, so none of these rules apply in a hypothetical anti-dumping case -- ie, China's local price, or "normal value" doesn't matter.
      - bryanlarsen 11mo ago
        A normal value for a highly competitive commodity part like a battery is about 3% above cost. CATL charges over 20% above cost. So you might have an argument that CATL has monopoly pricing power and is gouging its customers. IOW that they're illegally charging too much, not that they are illegally charging too little.
        tooltalk 11mo ago
        Sure, that's not what a normal value is. As explained, the price level or the cost of manufacture in China, the exporting country, is completely irrelevant as their local price/cost of manufacturer is artificially propped up by illegal state subsidies or other anti-market tactics to cripple foreign competition past 15 years. Again, China is a non-market-economy. In those cases, trade regulators can use "undistorted" prices without gov't interference or use a market price in a similarly situated 3rd country as benchmark.
        bryanlarsen 11mo ago
        If that's your definition of a non-market economy, then no Western economy is either.
- bmicraft 11mo ago
  That's plain wrong, they have not announced that price target anywhere. There is speculation that it could be there target internally for the long term, but there is basically zero chance they'll start at that price and no guarantees they'll ever reach it.
  - nharada 11mo ago
    You're right, I can't find any primary sources for this number. Yahoo[1] reports this number and attributes it to Bloomberg NEF but I can't find an actual article from Bloomberg with this number, or any actual target number in it. [1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-165059349.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-16505...
- grayrest 11mo ago
  > CATL is claiming mass production of their sodium-ion batteries starts in December, with a target price of $10/kWh. This got widely reported but there doesn't seem to be any source. I'll reference this video [1] to cover the claim along with a comparison to industry projections. Apologies for the video link but I don't have an article handy that addresses the topic as directly. [1] https://youtu.be/KjiqqafD_0w?t=861 https://youtu.be/KjiqqafD_0w?t=861
  - nharada 11mo ago
    You're right, I can't find any primary sources for this number. Yahoo[1] reports this number and attributes it to Bloomberg NEF but I can't find an actual article from Bloomberg with this number, or any actual target number in it. [1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-165059349.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-16505...

nharada 11mo ago

CATL is claiming mass production of their sodium-ion batteries starts in December, with a target price of $10/kWh. If that ends up even partway true it'll completely change the economics of power storage.

nextworddev 11mo ago
CATL is just dumping
- nharada 11mo ago
  What makes you say that? I don’t know this space very well
  - nextworddev 11mo ago
    Dumping batteries is yet another strategy to take control of global energy infrastructure and destabilize petrodollar
    - nharada 11mo ago
      Oh yeah I get what you’re saying but is that a thing? Like CATL has had lines before that aren’t making a profit?
      - Qwertious 11mo ago
        It's not a thing; people are just stuck in the 2000s and think that China can't beat the West technologically and therefore must be cheating.
        deleted 11mo ago
        [deleted]
        nextworddev 11mo ago
        They have decent technology (which they stole a decent chunk) and cheat at the same time.. nothing to do with the west feeling insecurity. In fact, the west could benefit from some mobilizing around insecurity
        tooltalk 11mo ago
        > people are just stuck in the 2000s and think that China can't beat the West technologically and therefore must be cheating. We are talking since early 2010 and on. And it's pretty much what everyone says they are: China has been breaking every trade/IP laws/agreements -- forced IP transfer/IP theft, ban foreign competition, illegal state subsidies to overcapacity, etc to get to where they are in the EV battery market.
- bryanlarsen 11mo ago
  CATL had a profit of $2.6B last quarter on sales of $15B. That indicates they're pricing well above cost rather than below it.
  - tooltalk 11mo ago
    dumping doesn't depend on profit or loss. Also the legal definition of dumping is less-than-the-"normal value." (see Article VI ANTI-DUMPING AND COUNTERVAILING DUTIES of GATT 1994). But then China is a non-market-economy, so none of these rules apply in a hypothetical anti-dumping case -- ie, China's local price, or "normal value" doesn't matter.
    - bryanlarsen 11mo ago
      A normal value for a highly competitive commodity part like a battery is about 3% above cost. CATL charges over 20% above cost. So you might have an argument that CATL has monopoly pricing power and is gouging its customers. IOW that they're illegally charging too much, not that they are illegally charging too little.
      - tooltalk 11mo ago
        Sure, that's not what a normal value is. As explained, the price level or the cost of manufacture in China, the exporting country, is completely irrelevant as their local price/cost of manufacturer is artificially propped up by illegal state subsidies or other anti-market tactics to cripple foreign competition past 15 years. Again, China is a non-market-economy. In those cases, trade regulators can use "undistorted" prices without gov't interference or use a market price in a similarly situated 3rd country as benchmark.
        bryanlarsen 11mo ago
        If that's your definition of a non-market economy, then no Western economy is either.
bmicraft 11mo ago
That's plain wrong, they have not announced that price target anywhere. There is speculation that it could be there target internally for the long term, but there is basically zero chance they'll start at that price and no guarantees they'll ever reach it.
- nharada 11mo ago
  You're right, I can't find any primary sources for this number. Yahoo[1] reports this number and attributes it to Bloomberg NEF but I can't find an actual article from Bloomberg with this number, or any actual target number in it. [1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-165059349.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-16505...
grayrest 11mo ago
> CATL is claiming mass production of their sodium-ion batteries starts in December, with a target price of $10/kWh. This got widely reported but there doesn't seem to be any source. I'll reference this video [1] to cover the claim along with a comparison to industry projections. Apologies for the video link but I don't have an article handy that addresses the topic as directly. [1] https://youtu.be/KjiqqafD_0w?t=861 https://youtu.be/KjiqqafD_0w?t=861
- nharada 11mo ago
  You're right, I can't find any primary sources for this number. Yahoo[1] reports this number and attributes it to Bloomberg NEF but I can't find an actual article from Bloomberg with this number, or any actual target number in it. [1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-165059349.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-16505...