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Great points but timing it can be very hard. It can last many more years because this time they have a thing called "money printer". When crash happens, they wi

by anon191928 1y ago

Great points but timing it can be very hard. It can last many more years because this time they have a thing called "money printer". When crash happens, they will use it. Yes it prints whatever amount they want, even trillions. Magically(!)

viking123 1y ago
Most people, who try to time these, usually get it completely wrong and end up losing huge amounts of money. I just stay invested in the indexes and some long term stocks, every time I try to predict something it goes badly.
- Quarrelsome 1y ago
  Bear in mind that your index becomes more and more of those six or seven companies, the more they grow. I think they're over 30% of the market? So an index tracker is still greatly exposed to this.
  - nemomarx 1y ago
    I wish I could get an index without them but it would probably have no growth basically - the rest of the market is struggling in comparison, right?
    - StoneAndSky 1y ago
      It exists: XMAG https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XMAG/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XMAG/ > The index aims to provide a comprehensive and balanced representation of the U.S. equity market by including the largest 500 publicly traded equity securities, while specifically excluding the seven largest technology companies commonly referred to as the “Magnificent 7”. Up 12% in the last year. Unfortunately, it's ten times as expensive (0.35%) as a straight S&P 500 ETF (e.g. VOO, 0.03%).
rsynnott 1y ago
> When crash happens, they will use it. You're suggesting that _governments_ will bail out the AI industry? I mean, why would they do that?
- nemomarx 1y ago
  I could see governments having a strong interest in bailing out Nvidia, Microsoft, etc at least?
  - XorNot 1y ago
    Why would Nvidia be in trouble? They're selling shovels during a gold rush, and have slow boated scale up - they're in no trouble.
    - nemomarx 1y ago
      If demand for compute and cuda dropped suddenly would they be okay going back to selling graphics cards?
      - tyleo 1y ago
        Well they sell graphics cards now so yes. Why would they suddenly not be okay with selling graphics cards if the AI bubble popped?
      - XorNot 1y ago
        Their profitability would shrink, but they'd only be in trouble if they were taking on debt to expand operations on the expectation of future growth. AFAIK one of the annoyances gamers have had with Nvidia is that after crypto and now with AI, they've generally been very careful to control how they expand production since they seem quite aware the party could stop any time. It certainly helps to have a lot of product lock-in - people will bear much higher prices to stay with Nvidia at this point (due to, as noted - CUDA). Sure, the stock price wouldn't be to the moon anymore, but that doesn't materially effect operations if they're still moving product - and gaming isn't going anywhere. The stock price of a company can crash without it materially effecting the company in anyway...provided the company isn't taking on expansion operations on the basis of that continued growth. Historically, Nvidia have avoided this.

viking123 1y ago

Most people, who try to time these, usually get it completely wrong and end up losing huge amounts of money. I just stay invested in the indexes and some long term stocks, every time I try to predict something it goes badly.

Quarrelsome 1y ago
Bear in mind that your index becomes more and more of those six or seven companies, the more they grow. I think they're over 30% of the market? So an index tracker is still greatly exposed to this.
- nemomarx 1y ago
  I wish I could get an index without them but it would probably have no growth basically - the rest of the market is struggling in comparison, right?
  - StoneAndSky 1y ago
    It exists: XMAG https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XMAG/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XMAG/ > The index aims to provide a comprehensive and balanced representation of the U.S. equity market by including the largest 500 publicly traded equity securities, while specifically excluding the seven largest technology companies commonly referred to as the “Magnificent 7”. Up 12% in the last year. Unfortunately, it's ten times as expensive (0.35%) as a straight S&P 500 ETF (e.g. VOO, 0.03%).

rsynnott 1y ago

> When crash happens, they will use it. You're suggesting that _governments_ will bail out the AI industry? I mean, why would they do that?

nemomarx 1y ago
I could see governments having a strong interest in bailing out Nvidia, Microsoft, etc at least?
- XorNot 1y ago
  Why would Nvidia be in trouble? They're selling shovels during a gold rush, and have slow boated scale up - they're in no trouble.
  - nemomarx 1y ago
    If demand for compute and cuda dropped suddenly would they be okay going back to selling graphics cards?
    - tyleo 1y ago
      Well they sell graphics cards now so yes. Why would they suddenly not be okay with selling graphics cards if the AI bubble popped?
    - XorNot 1y ago
      Their profitability would shrink, but they'd only be in trouble if they were taking on debt to expand operations on the expectation of future growth. AFAIK one of the annoyances gamers have had with Nvidia is that after crypto and now with AI, they've generally been very careful to control how they expand production since they seem quite aware the party could stop any time. It certainly helps to have a lot of product lock-in - people will bear much higher prices to stay with Nvidia at this point (due to, as noted - CUDA). Sure, the stock price wouldn't be to the moon anymore, but that doesn't materially effect operations if they're still moving product - and gaming isn't going anywhere. The stock price of a company can crash without it materially effecting the company in anyway...provided the company isn't taking on expansion operations on the basis of that continued growth. Historically, Nvidia have avoided this.