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I zoomed out. It looks like this: "Usage has absolutely declined from peak switching periods where inevitibly some users won't stick around, but that's to be e

I zoomed out. It looks like this: "Usage has absolutely declined from peak switching periods where inevitibly some users won't stick around, but that's to be expected" That just isn't a "sharp decline" no matter how much you seem to want to repeat those words.

tptacek 1y ago
Last year in November they had around 2.7MM likers. Today it's 1.2MM. Last year in November they had around 1.3MM posters. Today, 0.65MM. Followers: 3MM, to 0.4MM today.
- philistine 1y ago
  How does it compare to other social networks like Twitter? Can't compare because they don't offer granular data this detailed? That tells you something.
  - tptacek 1y ago
    That doesn't matter! In fact, Twitter doing worse while Bluesky usage is dropping probably makes them significantly less investable. I'm not rooting for them to fail. I use Bluesky. I find Twitter's ownership odious and the platform significantly worse than it was 4 years ago. But if we're talking about scientific communicators talking about where the future of scientific communication is going to happen, it is relevant whether Bluesky has a long-term future. There's another non-Twitter social network that doesn't operate under this funding pressure!
- SteveJS 1y ago
  Those are Jaz’s daily unique action counts (flows) from the Bluesky firehose; they’re anchored to the Nov ’24 spike, so the ‘decline’ is post-surge reversion. Meanwhile the user stock kept rising (~39M). A presidential election spike is the baseline for tracking growth in a social media platform??
  - JimDabell 1y ago
    > Meanwhile the user stock kept rising (~39M). What’s “user stock”? Is that the number of registered accounts? Isn’t it basically impossible for that to do anything but go up? It’s the number of people actively using the network that’s the important figure, not the total number of people who ever used it. Are these the figures you are reporting? > We made a new Bluesky stats page to see how the platform is growing. Unfortunately it is currently shrinking. > Last week the total number of users registered hit 36M, but actually only 13M of those showed any activity in the last 90 days. > Bluesky User Stats/Growth: https://bluefacts.app/bluesky-user-growth https://bluefacts.app/bluesky-user-growth — https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueskySocial/comments/1kxib89/bluesky_stats_only_13m_active_users_in_the_last/ https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueskySocial/comments/1kxib89/blue... Right now that shows 5.6M MAUs. > The number of active users (posting, liking or following) is down by 6.3% compared to 12 weeks ago. > The number of unique accounts posting at least once a day is down by 5.6% compared to 12 weeks ago. > The number of posts created each day is down by 4.3% compared to 12 weeks ago. > The number of likes given each day is up by 0.3% compared to 12 weeks ago. > The number of users liking posts each day is down by 6.1% compared to 12 weeks ago. > The number of new follows each day is down by 19.3% compared to 12 weeks ago. Also check the account age stats: https://bluefacts.app/bluesky-account-age https://bluefacts.app/bluesky-account-age > 32.1K New accounts per day since the beginning > 23.7K New accounts per day in the last 30 days > 14K New accounts per day in the last 7 days New accounts per day appears to be getting much worse over time.
- immibis 1y ago
  Last year in November, the co-president just banned a bunch of guys from X for not liking him.
- rootusrootus 1y ago
  To be fair, also last year in November they had 850K likers, 500K posters, and 400K followers.
- sumeno 1y ago
  Last year in August they had 200k likers. Today it's 1.2MM. Last year in August they had 150k posters. Today they have 650k. Followers: 50k to 400k today
  - tptacek 1y ago
    Right, so the basic story you're telling investors there is that between August and September of 2024 they experienced a sharp spike, and then basically they stayed that way for over a year. That's not a dying platform, but it's not a growth story you take to investors either.
- tzs 1y ago
  All of them though look like they have been pretty level over the last 3 to 4 months.
  - tptacek 1y ago
    Level is fine if you're self-sufficient, but scary if you're dependent on raising capital.
JimDabell 1y ago
I agree that it’s not a sharp decline but zooming out, what I see is absolutely no organic growth at all in the past couple of years. All the increases have been sharp spikes that immediately fall off dramatically, followed by longer, slower periods of decline. It looks like nobody is switching to Bluesky except in a handful of viral events, during which a tonne of people try it out but don’t keep using it. There’s only one upward slope on these graphs, and that stopped in late 2023 – about the time Threads went fully global. These look like very unhealthy stats.
xdfgh1112 1y ago
After the spike rose and fell, it continues to decline fairly quickly. I have no horse in this race but it looks sharp to me!

tptacek 1y ago

Last year in November they had around 2.7MM likers. Today it's 1.2MM. Last year in November they had around 1.3MM posters. Today, 0.65MM. Followers: 3MM, to 0.4MM today.

philistine 1y ago
How does it compare to other social networks like Twitter? Can't compare because they don't offer granular data this detailed? That tells you something.
- tptacek 1y ago
  That doesn't matter! In fact, Twitter doing worse while Bluesky usage is dropping probably makes them significantly less investable. I'm not rooting for them to fail. I use Bluesky. I find Twitter's ownership odious and the platform significantly worse than it was 4 years ago. But if we're talking about scientific communicators talking about where the future of scientific communication is going to happen, it is relevant whether Bluesky has a long-term future. There's another non-Twitter social network that doesn't operate under this funding pressure!
SteveJS 1y ago
Those are Jaz’s daily unique action counts (flows) from the Bluesky firehose; they’re anchored to the Nov ’24 spike, so the ‘decline’ is post-surge reversion. Meanwhile the user stock kept rising (~39M). A presidential election spike is the baseline for tracking growth in a social media platform??
- JimDabell 1y ago
  > Meanwhile the user stock kept rising (~39M). What’s “user stock”? Is that the number of registered accounts? Isn’t it basically impossible for that to do anything but go up? It’s the number of people actively using the network that’s the important figure, not the total number of people who ever used it. Are these the figures you are reporting? > We made a new Bluesky stats page to see how the platform is growing. Unfortunately it is currently shrinking. > Last week the total number of users registered hit 36M, but actually only 13M of those showed any activity in the last 90 days. > Bluesky User Stats/Growth: https://bluefacts.app/bluesky-user-growth https://bluefacts.app/bluesky-user-growth — https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueskySocial/comments/1kxib89/bluesky_stats_only_13m_active_users_in_the_last/ https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueskySocial/comments/1kxib89/blue... Right now that shows 5.6M MAUs. > The number of active users (posting, liking or following) is down by 6.3% compared to 12 weeks ago. > The number of unique accounts posting at least once a day is down by 5.6% compared to 12 weeks ago. > The number of posts created each day is down by 4.3% compared to 12 weeks ago. > The number of likes given each day is up by 0.3% compared to 12 weeks ago. > The number of users liking posts each day is down by 6.1% compared to 12 weeks ago. > The number of new follows each day is down by 19.3% compared to 12 weeks ago. Also check the account age stats: https://bluefacts.app/bluesky-account-age https://bluefacts.app/bluesky-account-age > 32.1K New accounts per day since the beginning > 23.7K New accounts per day in the last 30 days > 14K New accounts per day in the last 7 days New accounts per day appears to be getting much worse over time.
immibis 1y ago
Last year in November, the co-president just banned a bunch of guys from X for not liking him.
rootusrootus 1y ago
To be fair, also last year in November they had 850K likers, 500K posters, and 400K followers.
sumeno 1y ago
Last year in August they had 200k likers. Today it's 1.2MM. Last year in August they had 150k posters. Today they have 650k. Followers: 50k to 400k today
- tptacek 1y ago
  Right, so the basic story you're telling investors there is that between August and September of 2024 they experienced a sharp spike, and then basically they stayed that way for over a year. That's not a dying platform, but it's not a growth story you take to investors either.
tzs 1y ago
All of them though look like they have been pretty level over the last 3 to 4 months.
- tptacek 1y ago
  Level is fine if you're self-sufficient, but scary if you're dependent on raising capital.

JimDabell 1y ago

I agree that it’s not a sharp decline but zooming out, what I see is absolutely no organic growth at all in the past couple of years. All the increases have been sharp spikes that immediately fall off dramatically, followed by longer, slower periods of decline. It looks like nobody is switching to Bluesky except in a handful of viral events, during which a tonne of people try it out but don’t keep using it. There’s only one upward slope on these graphs, and that stopped in late 2023 – about the time Threads went fully global. These look like very unhealthy stats.

xdfgh1112 1y ago

After the spike rose and fell, it continues to decline fairly quickly. I have no horse in this race but it looks sharp to me!