6 ms·

The lottery is, famously, a tax on people who don’t understand probability. Hustle culture is a tax on people who think they will always be in the top 0.01% if

The lottery is, famously, a tax on people who don’t understand probability. Hustle culture is a tax on people who think they will always be in the top 0.01% if they just manifest hard enough.

01HNNWZ0MV43FF 1y ago
I feel like the math is weird too. Fermi estimate - doubling my work hours will also halve my waking free time. Doubling my work hours as an individual contributor will not make the company twice as productive. It will not make my stocks worth twice as much. Does anyone else see the math this way? Employee stock ownership does not give you linear returns with hours worked.
- rightbyte 1y ago
  > Fermi estimate - doubling my work hours will also halve my waking free time. 40h work. 56h sleep. 72h free time. 80h work. 56h sleep. 32h free time. Ok fair enough close enough to half I though the share would be worse. But in practice, your energy is spent and the free time will suck. Also a reasonable commute of 8h will make the share 64 to 24, a 'third'.
  - silvestrov 1y ago
    80h work. 56h bad sleep. 0h usable free time due to being drained mentally by work.
    - const_cast 1y ago
      Its actually closer to -2000 hours when you factor in the comorbidities of stress-eating taco bell at 10 PM to help you forget the work day.
- recursivecaveat 1y ago
  Yeah the thing with stocks is you have to be in a very tiny company or a critical executive for your individual positive contribution to the value of your shares to be even worth thinking about. Maybe it works psychologically on employees even though it's pretty irrational.
rufus_foreman 1y ago
>> The lottery is, famously, a tax on people who don’t understand probability I buy lottery tickets. Usually if I'm at the grocery store, I'll buy one. I have some understanding of probability. I have a minor in math, I took a graduate combinatorics class. Given the rules of a specific lottery I can tell you the odds of winning it, the expected value of a ticket, and back when I was taking that combinatorics class, I could have given you a proof of those odds. Probably couldn't do the proofs now. I also took economics classes. I remember having a discussion in micro on the conditions under which it would be rational for someone to play the lottery. They're pretty obvious. There's a condition called "engineer's disease". One symptom of that terrible terrible disease (along with a general disgust with humor and sarcasm) is that everything under discussion must be converted into the nearest available math problem. I think, sad to say, that the person who originated your famous quote probably had a bit of that condition. Or maybe I'm just a stupid guy who buys lottery tickets because he can't math.
- cma 1y ago
  Those type of conditions are usually temporary things like you lost your wallet and have $3 and all the sandwiches at the convience store are $6.

The lottery is, famously, a tax on people who don’t understand probability. Hustle culture is a tax on people who think they will always be in the top 0.01% if they just manifest hard enough.

01HNNWZ0MV43FF 1y ago

I feel like the math is weird too. Fermi estimate - doubling my work hours will also halve my waking free time. Doubling my work hours as an individual contributor will not make the company twice as productive. It will not make my stocks worth twice as much. Does anyone else see the math this way? Employee stock ownership does not give you linear returns with hours worked.

rightbyte 1y ago
> Fermi estimate - doubling my work hours will also halve my waking free time. 40h work. 56h sleep. 72h free time. 80h work. 56h sleep. 32h free time. Ok fair enough close enough to half I though the share would be worse. But in practice, your energy is spent and the free time will suck. Also a reasonable commute of 8h will make the share 64 to 24, a 'third'.
- silvestrov 1y ago
  80h work. 56h bad sleep. 0h usable free time due to being drained mentally by work.
  - const_cast 1y ago
    Its actually closer to -2000 hours when you factor in the comorbidities of stress-eating taco bell at 10 PM to help you forget the work day.
recursivecaveat 1y ago
Yeah the thing with stocks is you have to be in a very tiny company or a critical executive for your individual positive contribution to the value of your shares to be even worth thinking about. Maybe it works psychologically on employees even though it's pretty irrational.

rufus_foreman 1y ago

>> The lottery is, famously, a tax on people who don’t understand probability I buy lottery tickets. Usually if I'm at the grocery store, I'll buy one. I have some understanding of probability. I have a minor in math, I took a graduate combinatorics class. Given the rules of a specific lottery I can tell you the odds of winning it, the expected value of a ticket, and back when I was taking that combinatorics class, I could have given you a proof of those odds. Probably couldn't do the proofs now. I also took economics classes. I remember having a discussion in micro on the conditions under which it would be rational for someone to play the lottery. They're pretty obvious. There's a condition called "engineer's disease". One symptom of that terrible terrible disease (along with a general disgust with humor and sarcasm) is that everything under discussion must be converted into the nearest available math problem. I think, sad to say, that the person who originated your famous quote probably had a bit of that condition. Or maybe I'm just a stupid guy who buys lottery tickets because he can't math.

cma 1y ago
Those type of conditions are usually temporary things like you lost your wallet and have $3 and all the sandwiches at the convience store are $6.