9 ms·

AI is somehow supposed to generate $1T a year by 2028? From where? Never mind the lack of electric grid capacity to keep all of this running.

0x20cowboy 1y ago
If nobody has a job, I am unsure who will be left to pay the subscription fee.
- imglorp 1y ago
  The other way around maybe? They think the employers are going to line up to pay billions for AI workers in order to avoid paying trillions in benefits to human ones?
  - api 1y ago
    Who buys the products then?
  - ares623 1y ago
    Who will be the customers for those employers?
  - frfl 1y ago
    And who will buy the products and serivces of these "employers" when nobody has a job? See you can keep adding middle layers, but eventually you'll find there's no one with any money at the bottom of this pyramid to prop this whole thing up. When the consumer driven economy has no critical mass of consumers, the whole model kinda goes belly up, no?
    - tharmas 1y ago
      Perhaps a feudal economy where it is just the wealthy who consume. The rest of humanity is pure subsistence.
jvanderbot 1y ago
5 million claude agents? Oh wait that's a billion. Yeah it's not happening.
twothreeone 1y ago
OpenAI's ChatGPT alone hit 500 million weekly active users in March, apparently they're closer to 800 million now. I guess they're still working out the monetization strategy, but in the worst case just think of how Google makes their revenue off search..
- LPisGood 1y ago
  Each ChatGPT query costs orders of magnitude more than a google search. I can’t say for sure how many orders, but I suspect more than a few.
  - twothreeone 1y ago
    The first one does, then prompt caching kicks in.. turns out many people ask similar questions. People who frequently ask complicated questions might have to pay extra, we can already see this playing out.
    - vineyardmike 1y ago
      That’s not what prompt caching is. Also, most ChatGPT users have their “personalization” prefix in the system prompt (which contains things like date/time), which would break caching of the actual user-query.
    - mathiaspoint 1y ago
      The prompt has to be precisely the same for that to work (and of course now you have to have an embedding hashmap which is its own somewhat advanced problem.) I doubt they do that especially given the things I've heard from API users.
  - jallmann 1y ago
    The delta might not be that large these days, with the AI suggestions that Google is placing on search result pages.
    - esafak 1y ago
fcpguru 1y ago
In the recent Sam Altman interview he said the plan should be keep burning fossil fuels to power the data centers running AI because that’s the path to fusion. Just like LLM can help devs code 100x faster they can do that for nuclear engineers too.
- dashundchen 1y ago
  Sounds like he is sucking up to the Dear Leader and his sponsors again.
  - gruez 1y ago
    The pro-singularity/AGI people genuinely seem to believe that takeoff is going to happen within the next decade, so they should get a pass on the "haha they're saying that because they want to pander to Trump" accusations.
    - mschuster91 1y ago
      > The pro-singularity/AGI people genuinely seem to believe that takeoff is going to happen within the next decade I'm as anti-AI as it can get - it has its uses, but it is still fundamentally built on outright sharting on all kinds of ethics, and that's just the training phase - the actual usage is filled with even more snake-oil salesmen and fraudsters, and that's not to speak of all the jobs for humans that are going to be irreversibly replaced by AI. But I think the AGI people are actually correct in their assumption - somewhen the next 10-20 years, the AGI milestone will be hit. Most probably not on LLM basis, but it will hit. And societies are absolutely not prepared to deal with the fallout, quite the contrary - particularly the current US administration is throwing us all in front of the multibillionaire wolves.
      - benterix 1y ago
        > somewhen the next 10-20 years, the AGI milestone will be hit You seem quite confident for a person who doesn't offer any arguments on why it would happen at all, and why within two decades specifically, especially if you claim it won't be LLM-based. Second, if AGI means that ChatGPT doesn't hallucinate and has a practically infinite context window, that's good for humanity but I fail to see any of the usual terrible things happening like the "fallout" you mention. We'll adapt just like we adapted to using LLMs.

0x20cowboy 1y ago

If nobody has a job, I am unsure who will be left to pay the subscription fee.

imglorp 1y ago
The other way around maybe? They think the employers are going to line up to pay billions for AI workers in order to avoid paying trillions in benefits to human ones?
- api 1y ago
  Who buys the products then?
- ares623 1y ago
  Who will be the customers for those employers?
- frfl 1y ago
  And who will buy the products and serivces of these "employers" when nobody has a job? See you can keep adding middle layers, but eventually you'll find there's no one with any money at the bottom of this pyramid to prop this whole thing up. When the consumer driven economy has no critical mass of consumers, the whole model kinda goes belly up, no?
  - tharmas 1y ago
    Perhaps a feudal economy where it is just the wealthy who consume. The rest of humanity is pure subsistence.

jvanderbot 1y ago

5 million claude agents? Oh wait that's a billion. Yeah it's not happening.

twothreeone 1y ago

OpenAI's ChatGPT alone hit 500 million weekly active users in March, apparently they're closer to 800 million now. I guess they're still working out the monetization strategy, but in the worst case just think of how Google makes their revenue off search..

LPisGood 1y ago
Each ChatGPT query costs orders of magnitude more than a google search. I can’t say for sure how many orders, but I suspect more than a few.
- twothreeone 1y ago
  The first one does, then prompt caching kicks in.. turns out many people ask similar questions. People who frequently ask complicated questions might have to pay extra, we can already see this playing out.
  - vineyardmike 1y ago
    That’s not what prompt caching is. Also, most ChatGPT users have their “personalization” prefix in the system prompt (which contains things like date/time), which would break caching of the actual user-query.
  - mathiaspoint 1y ago
    The prompt has to be precisely the same for that to work (and of course now you have to have an embedding hashmap which is its own somewhat advanced problem.) I doubt they do that especially given the things I've heard from API users.
- jallmann 1y ago
  The delta might not be that large these days, with the AI suggestions that Google is placing on search result pages.
  - esafak 1y ago

fcpguru 1y ago

In the recent Sam Altman interview he said the plan should be keep burning fossil fuels to power the data centers running AI because that’s the path to fusion. Just like LLM can help devs code 100x faster they can do that for nuclear engineers too.

dashundchen 1y ago
Sounds like he is sucking up to the Dear Leader and his sponsors again.
- gruez 1y ago
  The pro-singularity/AGI people genuinely seem to believe that takeoff is going to happen within the next decade, so they should get a pass on the "haha they're saying that because they want to pander to Trump" accusations.
  - mschuster91 1y ago
    > The pro-singularity/AGI people genuinely seem to believe that takeoff is going to happen within the next decade I'm as anti-AI as it can get - it has its uses, but it is still fundamentally built on outright sharting on all kinds of ethics, and that's just the training phase - the actual usage is filled with even more snake-oil salesmen and fraudsters, and that's not to speak of all the jobs for humans that are going to be irreversibly replaced by AI. But I think the AGI people are actually correct in their assumption - somewhen the next 10-20 years, the AGI milestone will be hit. Most probably not on LLM basis, but it will hit. And societies are absolutely not prepared to deal with the fallout, quite the contrary - particularly the current US administration is throwing us all in front of the multibillionaire wolves.
    - benterix 1y ago
      > somewhen the next 10-20 years, the AGI milestone will be hit You seem quite confident for a person who doesn't offer any arguments on why it would happen at all, and why within two decades specifically, especially if you claim it won't be LLM-based. Second, if AGI means that ChatGPT doesn't hallucinate and has a practically infinite context window, that's good for humanity but I fail to see any of the usual terrible things happening like the "fallout" you mention. We'll adapt just like we adapted to using LLMs.