5 ms·

The real game the current administration is playing is to land on Mars before their current term expires. This mirrors the political, prestige, and technology

The real game the current administration is playing is to land on Mars before their current term expires. This mirrors the political, prestige, and technology triumph of the Kennedy administration. This is why the BBB Bill refocussed on the Mars mission despite having cuts. What is being cut is otherwise a symptom of the budget deficit (7%) and the fact that politically they cut areas where there are not republican votes, as politicians obviously try to maintain their voter base as a consideration in their decisions. Note historically a criticism of the original lunar mission was that USA diverted funds from hospitals and other public programs to fund the mission. So some were bitter despite the triumph. It goes back to the fundamental conundrum. You have a back of corn. Do you plant the corn, or eat the corn? If AI delivers for America (planting the corn) and USA lands on Mars, these 4k NASA employees will not dwell in the public imagination despite our respect for their commitment, skill and service.

perihelions 1y ago
> "before their current term expires" > "This mirrors the political, prestige, and technology triumph of the Kennedy administration" Trump may have said "before my term ends"; what JFK said was "before this decade is out". IMHO, this is like a diametric opposite of Richard M. Nixon landing on the moon, two presidencies after Kennedy (and of opposite party); acting for Americans' obvious shared interests (not personal vanity); being the final link in an unbroken chain of sustained, stable governance. We've lost the capacity for greatness of that era. We don't have that, that chain of stable governance in service of national interests; what we have is an attention-deficient narcissist, capriciously destroying every great American thing that exists which doesn't have name attached. (Ironically, the thing Kennedy so fervently competed against no longer exists today. That fearsome adversary, the triumph of Sputnik and Gagarin, was also demolished in this century by a Trump-like figure, spouting vapid promises of greatness as he vandaled and looted it to the ground).
- lostmsu 1y ago
  > a Trump-like figure, spouting vapid promises of greatness Can't pinpoint who you are referring to. Gemini thinks Yeltsin? But neither it nor I remember any "greatness" promises from the guy.
  - perihelions 1y ago
    Putin made a number of incredibly grandiose promises about Russia's progress in space (and in technology and engineering generally), as he dismantled and looted Roscosmos over the past twenty years—gifting away its wealth to oligarch allies. The Russian space capability is a shadow of its former self, barely able to maintain its old Soviet rocket production. Their ISS modules, if you've been following, are quite literally falling apart from negligence—leaking toxic gases and such. Here's a generic example of the flavor of Russia's non-credible space propaganda—stuff their government says, like Trump, that's an enormous lie, that everyone knows is a lie: https://web.archive.org/web/20120204103104/http://english.pravda.ru/science/tech/02-02-2012/120400-russia_moon-0/ https://web.archive.org/web/20120204103104/http://english.pr... (Pravda: "Russia to send cosmonauts to the Moon this decade" (2012))
    - lostmsu 1y ago
      To be fair, Russian space stagnated since before him. The current fallout is caused by somebody actually bothering to move forward.
  - asacrowflies 1y ago
    Putin you idiot.
mrtksn 1y ago
Good framing but IMHO it’s a bit like thinking by analogy. Last time, USA was behind in space race and they didn’t just use what they already had to go to the moon, instead they started a huge movement that inspired and educated generations of scientist and engineers. this redeemed all the issues with cutting services from other places to go to the moon. This time around, it looks like a desperate attempt to do something that worked in the past and looks impressive on face value, but it’s actually empty inside. Last time, huge number of people were provided with resources and education that had outstanding impact on America, much much more than the act of landing on the moon did by itself. This time you get resources directed to a generation of hateful people and sex offenders who use the already available technology to produce a show.
nradov 1y ago
There is zero chance that humans will land on Mars before the end of the current administration. It isn't technically feasible. They are not seriously planning on this.
- maxerickson 1y ago
  I don't think we should underestimate how poor their grasp of technical reality might be.
  - MisterSandman 1y ago
    And I hate to say it, but in this context, Musk would’ve been at least a little useful in having around. I’m aware he’s not the best person to make reliable predictions, but he does run SpaceX. With both the cuts to NASA and Musk leaving the core inner circle of Trump, space exploration is going to be set back. Mars ain’t happening in our lifetimes, IMO. I hope I’m wrong.
    - AngryData 1y ago
      I don't see how Musk could help in any way. He isn't an engineer, and the problems with space exploration are still pure engineering problems. You might as well be asking the CEO of Ford to come to your house and help you replace your cam bearings on a Nissan.
      - notahacker 1y ago
        He isn't an engineer but does have considerably more willingness to listen to and understand engineers than the rest of the administration. If nothing else, he's aware that there's a bit more involved in getting humans to Mars on any timeline than just rockets, and slashing the budget of the only entity working on those problems might not speed up getting there... If course, he also knows enough to know nobody's sending manned missions to Mars in the next launch window regardless of whose in charge, and he's been quite fond of breaking stuff recently so I'm not sure we want Elon in charge either.
      - 1y ago
15155 1y ago
So have they announced this theoretical 2026 mission yet? How does this work with one single launch window remaining?
verzali 1y ago
They're not going to land on Mars by 2028.
- oceanplexian 1y ago
  I would be willing to bet there's a high probability that Starship lands on Mars by 2028 without people on it. The real question will be in how many pieces.
- Balgair 1y ago
  Yes, but the administration doesn't know that.
theshackleford 1y ago
> The real game the current administration is playing is to land on Mars before their current term expires. This will literally not happen and anyone who thinks it will needs to seek professional help.
jeffbee 1y ago
> land on Mars before their current term expires As a nation we need to figure out how you, probably a person who considers yourself a functioning adult member of society, came to believe and even repeat this.
UncleMeat 1y ago
There are 3.5 years left in the administration. The time between Apollo 1 and Apollo 11 was 2.5 years. At its closest point, Mars is more than 100 times further away than the Moon. Just a trip there takes like nine months when delivering small payloads that don't need to return. And you need to time it so that you plan the mission when mars and earth are very near each other, which is only every couple of years. The idea that the Trump administration could put a man on mars before the end of their term, even if this was a very top priority is ludicrous.
asacrowflies 1y ago
This is nothing but lies and bullshit ....landing a man on Mars in the next three years is so batshit insane I worry for your sanity.

perihelions 1y ago

> "before their current term expires" > "This mirrors the political, prestige, and technology triumph of the Kennedy administration" Trump may have said "before my term ends"; what JFK said was "before this decade is out". IMHO, this is like a diametric opposite of Richard M. Nixon landing on the moon, two presidencies after Kennedy (and of opposite party); acting for Americans' obvious shared interests (not personal vanity); being the final link in an unbroken chain of sustained, stable governance. We've lost the capacity for greatness of that era. We don't have that, that chain of stable governance in service of national interests; what we have is an attention-deficient narcissist, capriciously destroying every great American thing that exists which doesn't have name attached. (Ironically, the thing Kennedy so fervently competed against no longer exists today. That fearsome adversary, the triumph of Sputnik and Gagarin, was also demolished in this century by a Trump-like figure, spouting vapid promises of greatness as he vandaled and looted it to the ground).

lostmsu 1y ago
> a Trump-like figure, spouting vapid promises of greatness Can't pinpoint who you are referring to. Gemini thinks Yeltsin? But neither it nor I remember any "greatness" promises from the guy.
- perihelions 1y ago
  Putin made a number of incredibly grandiose promises about Russia's progress in space (and in technology and engineering generally), as he dismantled and looted Roscosmos over the past twenty years—gifting away its wealth to oligarch allies. The Russian space capability is a shadow of its former self, barely able to maintain its old Soviet rocket production. Their ISS modules, if you've been following, are quite literally falling apart from negligence—leaking toxic gases and such. Here's a generic example of the flavor of Russia's non-credible space propaganda—stuff their government says, like Trump, that's an enormous lie, that everyone knows is a lie: https://web.archive.org/web/20120204103104/http://english.pravda.ru/science/tech/02-02-2012/120400-russia_moon-0/ https://web.archive.org/web/20120204103104/http://english.pr... (Pravda: "Russia to send cosmonauts to the Moon this decade" (2012))
  - lostmsu 1y ago
    To be fair, Russian space stagnated since before him. The current fallout is caused by somebody actually bothering to move forward.
- asacrowflies 1y ago
  Putin you idiot.

mrtksn 1y ago

Good framing but IMHO it’s a bit like thinking by analogy. Last time, USA was behind in space race and they didn’t just use what they already had to go to the moon, instead they started a huge movement that inspired and educated generations of scientist and engineers. this redeemed all the issues with cutting services from other places to go to the moon. This time around, it looks like a desperate attempt to do something that worked in the past and looks impressive on face value, but it’s actually empty inside. Last time, huge number of people were provided with resources and education that had outstanding impact on America, much much more than the act of landing on the moon did by itself. This time you get resources directed to a generation of hateful people and sex offenders who use the already available technology to produce a show.

nradov 1y ago

There is zero chance that humans will land on Mars before the end of the current administration. It isn't technically feasible. They are not seriously planning on this.

maxerickson 1y ago
I don't think we should underestimate how poor their grasp of technical reality might be.
- MisterSandman 1y ago
  And I hate to say it, but in this context, Musk would’ve been at least a little useful in having around. I’m aware he’s not the best person to make reliable predictions, but he does run SpaceX. With both the cuts to NASA and Musk leaving the core inner circle of Trump, space exploration is going to be set back. Mars ain’t happening in our lifetimes, IMO. I hope I’m wrong.
  - AngryData 1y ago
    I don't see how Musk could help in any way. He isn't an engineer, and the problems with space exploration are still pure engineering problems. You might as well be asking the CEO of Ford to come to your house and help you replace your cam bearings on a Nissan.
    - notahacker 1y ago
      He isn't an engineer but does have considerably more willingness to listen to and understand engineers than the rest of the administration. If nothing else, he's aware that there's a bit more involved in getting humans to Mars on any timeline than just rockets, and slashing the budget of the only entity working on those problems might not speed up getting there... If course, he also knows enough to know nobody's sending manned missions to Mars in the next launch window regardless of whose in charge, and he's been quite fond of breaking stuff recently so I'm not sure we want Elon in charge either.
    - 1y ago

15155 1y ago

So have they announced this theoretical 2026 mission yet? How does this work with one single launch window remaining?

verzali 1y ago

They're not going to land on Mars by 2028.

oceanplexian 1y ago
I would be willing to bet there's a high probability that Starship lands on Mars by 2028 without people on it. The real question will be in how many pieces.
Balgair 1y ago
Yes, but the administration doesn't know that.

theshackleford 1y ago

> The real game the current administration is playing is to land on Mars before their current term expires. This will literally not happen and anyone who thinks it will needs to seek professional help.

jeffbee 1y ago

> land on Mars before their current term expires As a nation we need to figure out how you, probably a person who considers yourself a functioning adult member of society, came to believe and even repeat this.

UncleMeat 1y ago

There are 3.5 years left in the administration. The time between Apollo 1 and Apollo 11 was 2.5 years. At its closest point, Mars is more than 100 times further away than the Moon. Just a trip there takes like nine months when delivering small payloads that don't need to return. And you need to time it so that you plan the mission when mars and earth are very near each other, which is only every couple of years. The idea that the Trump administration could put a man on mars before the end of their term, even if this was a very top priority is ludicrous.

asacrowflies 1y ago

This is nothing but lies and bullshit ....landing a man on Mars in the next three years is so batshit insane I worry for your sanity.